Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for AAPL
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/15/26 (Wed) | 1 | 315.54 | 2.98 | 0.95% | 318.52 | 312.55 | 25.62% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 3 | 315.54 | 5.38 | 1.71% | 320.92 | 310.15 | 27.32% |
| 07/20/26 (Mon) | 6 | 315.54 | 6.33 | 2.01% | 321.87 | 309.2 | 22.88% |
| 07/22/26 (Wed) | 8 | 315.54 | 7.76 | 2.46% | 323.29 | 307.78 | 24.31% |
| 07/24/26 (Fri) | 10 | 315.54 | 8.88 | 2.82% | 324.42 | 306.65 | 24.86% |
| 07/27/26 (Mon) | 13 | 315.54 | 9.52 | 3.02% | 325.06 | 306.02 | 23.43% |
| 07/29/26 (Wed) | 15 | 315.54 | 10.01 | 3.17% | 325.54 | 305.53 | 22.92% |
| 07/31/26 (Fri) | 17 | 315.54 | 14.19 | 4.5% | 329.73 | 301.34 | 30.56% |
| 08/07/26 (Fri) | 24 | 315.54 | 15.77 | 5.0% | 331.3 | 299.77 | 28.57% |
| 08/14/26 (Fri) | 31 | 315.54 | 17.28 | 5.48% | 332.81 | 298.26 | 27.61% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 38 | 315.54 | 18.66 | 5.91% | 334.19 | 296.88 | 26.92% |
| 08/28/26 (Fri) | 45 | 315.54 | 20.21 | 6.4% | 335.74 | 295.33 | 26.77% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 66 | 315.54 | 24.46 | 7.75% | 339.99 | 291.08 | 26.73% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 94 | 315.54 | 28.9 | 9.16% | 344.44 | 286.64 | 26.44% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 129 | 315.54 | 34.87 | 11.05% | 350.41 | 280.66 | 27.32% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 157 | 315.54 | 38.29 | 12.14% | 353.83 | 277.24 | 27.13% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 185 | 315.54 | 41.2 | 13.06% | 356.74 | 274.33 | 26.88% |
| 02/19/27 (Fri) | 220 | 315.54 | 45.48 | 14.41% | 361.01 | 270.06 | 27.16% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 248 | 315.54 | 48.26 | 15.29% | 363.79 | 267.28 | 27.13% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 338 | 315.54 | 57.38 | 18.18% | 372.91 | 258.16 | 27.64% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 430 | 315.54 | 65.51 | 20.76% | 381.05 | 250.02 | 28.1% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 521 | 315.54 | 72.7 | 23.04% | 388.23 | 242.84 | 28.34% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 556 | 315.54 | 75.03 | 23.78% | 390.57 | 240.5 | 28.23% |
| 03/17/28 (Fri) | 612 | 315.54 | 79.01 | 25.04% | 394.54 | 236.53 | 28.38% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 885 | 315.54 | 96.98 | 30.74% | 412.52 | 218.55 | 29.13% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.