Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for AAPL
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/15/26 (Fri) | 0 | 298.23 | 3.29 | 1.1% | 301.52 | 294.94 | 1.0% |
| 05/18/26 (Mon) | 3 | 298.23 | 4.48 | 1.5% | 302.71 | 293.75 | 20.98% |
| 05/20/26 (Wed) | 5 | 298.23 | 6.05 | 2.03% | 304.28 | 292.18 | 23.2% |
| 05/22/26 (Fri) | 7 | 298.23 | 7.44 | 2.49% | 305.67 | 290.79 | 24.63% |
| 05/26/26 (Tue) | 11 | 298.23 | 8.39 | 2.81% | 306.62 | 289.84 | 22.59% |
| 05/27/26 (Wed) | 12 | 298.23 | 9.01 | 3.02% | 307.24 | 289.22 | 23.34% |
| 05/29/26 (Fri) | 14 | 298.23 | 9.75 | 3.27% | 307.98 | 288.48 | 23.64% |
| 06/05/26 (Fri) | 21 | 298.23 | 11.69 | 3.92% | 309.92 | 286.54 | 23.3% |
| 06/12/26 (Fri) | 28 | 298.23 | 13.73 | 4.6% | 311.96 | 284.5 | 23.87% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 34 | 298.23 | 14.94 | 5.01% | 313.17 | 283.29 | 23.66% |
| 06/26/26 (Fri) | 42 | 298.23 | 16.43 | 5.51% | 314.66 | 281.8 | 23.48% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 63 | 298.23 | 20.14 | 6.75% | 318.38 | 278.09 | 23.62% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 98 | 298.23 | 27.01 | 9.06% | 325.24 | 271.22 | 25.52% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 126 | 298.23 | 30.81 | 10.33% | 329.04 | 267.42 | 25.66% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 154 | 298.23 | 34.32 | 11.51% | 332.55 | 263.91 | 25.86% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 189 | 298.23 | 39.04 | 13.09% | 337.27 | 259.19 | 26.66% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 217 | 298.23 | 41.59 | 13.94% | 339.82 | 256.64 | 26.46% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 245 | 298.23 | 44.05 | 14.77% | 342.28 | 254.18 | 26.38% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 308 | 298.23 | 50.17 | 16.82% | 348.4 | 248.06 | 26.83% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 398 | 298.23 | 57.65 | 19.33% | 355.88 | 240.58 | 27.15% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 490 | 298.23 | 64.58 | 21.65% | 362.81 | 233.65 | 27.45% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 581 | 298.23 | 71.06 | 23.83% | 369.29 | 227.17 | 27.79% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 616 | 298.23 | 73.25 | 24.56% | 371.48 | 224.98 | 27.82% |
| 03/17/28 (Fri) | 672 | 298.23 | 77.58 | 26.01% | 375.81 | 220.65 | 28.3% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 945 | 298.23 | 92.1 | 30.88% | 390.33 | 206.13 | 28.49% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.