Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for AMZN
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/15/26 (Fri) | 0 | 267.22 | 3.3 | 1.23% | 270.52 | 263.92 | 1.0% |
| 05/18/26 (Mon) | 3 | 267.22 | 4.55 | 1.7% | 271.77 | 262.67 | 23.89% |
| 05/20/26 (Wed) | 5 | 267.22 | 6.61 | 2.47% | 273.83 | 260.61 | 28.34% |
| 05/22/26 (Fri) | 7 | 267.22 | 8.18 | 3.06% | 275.4 | 259.04 | 30.32% |
| 05/26/26 (Tue) | 11 | 267.22 | 9.2 | 3.44% | 276.42 | 258.02 | 27.56% |
| 05/27/26 (Wed) | 12 | 267.22 | 9.39 | 3.51% | 276.61 | 257.83 | 27.05% |
| 05/29/26 (Fri) | 14 | 267.22 | 10.58 | 3.96% | 277.8 | 256.64 | 28.68% |
| 06/05/26 (Fri) | 21 | 267.22 | 13.13 | 4.91% | 280.35 | 254.09 | 29.2% |
| 06/12/26 (Fri) | 28 | 267.22 | 15.02 | 5.62% | 282.24 | 252.2 | 29.15% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 34 | 267.22 | 16.55 | 6.19% | 283.77 | 250.67 | 29.24% |
| 06/26/26 (Fri) | 42 | 267.22 | 18.04 | 6.75% | 285.26 | 249.18 | 28.77% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 63 | 267.22 | 23.04 | 8.62% | 290.26 | 244.19 | 30.18% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 98 | 267.22 | 32.24 | 12.06% | 299.46 | 234.98 | 34.06% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 126 | 267.22 | 36.27 | 13.57% | 303.49 | 230.95 | 33.86% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 154 | 267.22 | 39.65 | 14.84% | 306.87 | 227.57 | 33.5% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 189 | 267.22 | 45.13 | 16.89% | 312.36 | 222.09 | 34.48% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 217 | 267.22 | 47.9 | 17.92% | 315.12 | 219.32 | 34.16% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 245 | 267.22 | 50.34 | 18.84% | 317.56 | 216.88 | 33.79% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 308 | 267.22 | 57.48 | 21.51% | 324.7 | 209.74 | 34.51% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 398 | 267.22 | 65.96 | 24.68% | 333.18 | 201.26 | 34.9% |
| 07/16/27 (Fri) | 427 | 267.22 | 68.11 | 25.49% | 335.33 | 199.11 | 34.8% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 581 | 267.22 | 80.58 | 30.15% | 347.8 | 186.64 | 35.44% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 616 | 267.22 | 83.19 | 31.13% | 350.41 | 184.03 | 35.39% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 763 | 267.22 | 92.99 | 34.8% | 360.21 | 174.23 | 35.66% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 945 | 267.22 | 104.0 | 38.92% | 371.22 | 163.22 | 36.07% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.