Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for META
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/15/26 (Fri) | 0 | 618.43 | 7.67 | 1.24% | 626.1 | 610.76 | 1.0% |
| 05/18/26 (Mon) | 3 | 618.43 | 11.33 | 1.83% | 629.76 | 607.1 | 25.66% |
| 05/20/26 (Wed) | 5 | 618.43 | 16.4 | 2.65% | 634.83 | 602.02 | 30.38% |
| 05/22/26 (Fri) | 7 | 618.43 | 19.78 | 3.2% | 638.21 | 598.65 | 31.66% |
| 05/26/26 (Tue) | 11 | 618.43 | 22.44 | 3.63% | 640.87 | 595.99 | 29.4% |
| 05/27/26 (Wed) | 12 | 618.43 | 23.5 | 3.8% | 641.93 | 594.93 | 29.59% |
| 05/29/26 (Fri) | 14 | 618.43 | 26.14 | 4.23% | 644.57 | 592.29 | 30.61% |
| 06/05/26 (Fri) | 21 | 618.43 | 32.17 | 5.2% | 650.6 | 586.26 | 31.09% |
| 06/12/26 (Fri) | 28 | 618.43 | 37.55 | 6.07% | 655.98 | 580.88 | 31.6% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 34 | 618.43 | 41.35 | 6.69% | 659.78 | 577.08 | 31.74% |
| 06/26/26 (Fri) | 42 | 618.43 | 45.92 | 7.43% | 664.35 | 572.51 | 31.78% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 63 | 618.43 | 56.61 | 9.15% | 675.04 | 561.82 | 32.12% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 98 | 618.43 | 80.64 | 13.04% | 699.07 | 537.79 | 36.84% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 126 | 618.43 | 89.93 | 14.54% | 708.36 | 528.5 | 36.29% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 154 | 618.43 | 98.98 | 16.01% | 717.41 | 519.45 | 36.22% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 189 | 618.43 | 113.98 | 18.43% | 732.41 | 504.44 | 37.7% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 217 | 618.43 | 120.44 | 19.48% | 738.88 | 497.98 | 37.27% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 245 | 618.43 | 126.82 | 20.51% | 745.25 | 491.61 | 36.92% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 308 | 618.43 | 143.9 | 23.27% | 762.33 | 474.52 | 37.52% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 398 | 618.43 | 164.22 | 26.55% | 782.65 | 454.21 | 37.77% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 490 | 618.43 | 183.24 | 29.63% | 801.67 | 435.19 | 38.07% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 581 | 618.43 | 200.24 | 32.38% | 818.67 | 418.19 | 38.41% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 616 | 618.43 | 206.8 | 33.44% | 825.23 | 411.62 | 38.55% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 763 | 618.43 | 230.63 | 37.29% | 849.06 | 387.8 | 38.9% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 945 | 618.43 | 256.59 | 41.49% | 875.02 | 361.84 | 39.16% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.