Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for MSFT
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/15/26 (Fri) | 0 | 409.43 | 4.7 | 1.15% | 414.13 | 404.73 | 1.0% |
| 05/18/26 (Mon) | 3 | 409.43 | 7.08 | 1.73% | 416.51 | 402.35 | 24.22% |
| 05/20/26 (Wed) | 5 | 409.43 | 9.94 | 2.43% | 419.38 | 399.49 | 27.82% |
| 05/22/26 (Fri) | 7 | 409.43 | 12.26 | 2.99% | 421.69 | 397.17 | 29.4% |
| 05/26/26 (Tue) | 11 | 409.43 | 13.41 | 3.27% | 422.84 | 396.02 | 26.67% |
| 05/27/26 (Wed) | 12 | 409.43 | 14.49 | 3.54% | 423.92 | 394.94 | 27.53% |
| 05/29/26 (Fri) | 14 | 409.43 | 15.94 | 3.89% | 425.37 | 393.49 | 28.15% |
| 06/05/26 (Fri) | 21 | 409.43 | 19.93 | 4.87% | 429.36 | 389.5 | 29.13% |
| 06/12/26 (Fri) | 28 | 409.43 | 22.82 | 5.57% | 432.25 | 386.61 | 29.06% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 34 | 409.43 | 24.76 | 6.05% | 434.19 | 384.67 | 28.69% |
| 06/26/26 (Fri) | 42 | 409.43 | 27.39 | 6.69% | 436.82 | 382.04 | 28.64% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 63 | 409.43 | 34.04 | 8.31% | 443.47 | 375.39 | 29.17% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 98 | 409.43 | 46.41 | 11.34% | 455.84 | 363.02 | 32.04% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 126 | 409.43 | 51.57 | 12.6% | 461.0 | 357.86 | 31.5% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 154 | 409.43 | 56.27 | 13.74% | 465.7 | 353.16 | 31.06% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 189 | 409.43 | 64.07 | 15.65% | 473.5 | 345.36 | 32.05% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 217 | 409.43 | 67.68 | 16.53% | 477.11 | 341.75 | 31.66% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 245 | 409.43 | 70.95 | 17.33% | 480.38 | 338.48 | 31.2% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 308 | 409.43 | 79.96 | 19.53% | 489.39 | 329.47 | 31.51% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 398 | 409.43 | 90.95 | 22.21% | 500.38 | 318.48 | 31.63% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 490 | 409.43 | 101.13 | 24.7% | 510.56 | 308.3 | 31.8% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 581 | 409.43 | 110.05 | 26.88% | 519.48 | 299.38 | 31.91% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 616 | 409.43 | 113.79 | 27.79% | 523.22 | 295.64 | 32.03% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 763 | 409.43 | 126.71 | 30.95% | 536.14 | 282.72 | 32.32% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 945 | 409.43 | 139.68 | 34.11% | 549.11 | 269.75 | 32.28% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.