Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for TSLA
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/15/26 (Fri) | 0 | 443.3 | 9.12 | 2.06% | 452.42 | 434.18 | 1.0% |
| 05/18/26 (Mon) | 3 | 443.3 | 13.07 | 2.95% | 456.37 | 430.23 | 41.46% |
| 05/20/26 (Wed) | 5 | 443.3 | 17.79 | 4.01% | 461.09 | 425.51 | 46.05% |
| 05/22/26 (Fri) | 7 | 443.3 | 21.46 | 4.84% | 464.76 | 421.84 | 48.07% |
| 05/26/26 (Tue) | 11 | 443.3 | 23.4 | 5.28% | 466.7 | 419.9 | 42.83% |
| 05/27/26 (Wed) | 12 | 443.3 | 25.12 | 5.67% | 468.42 | 418.18 | 44.11% |
| 05/29/26 (Fri) | 14 | 443.3 | 27.67 | 6.24% | 470.97 | 415.63 | 45.36% |
| 06/05/26 (Fri) | 21 | 443.3 | 34.02 | 7.67% | 477.32 | 409.28 | 45.93% |
| 06/12/26 (Fri) | 28 | 443.3 | 39.08 | 8.82% | 482.38 | 404.22 | 46.0% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 34 | 443.3 | 42.86 | 9.67% | 486.16 | 400.44 | 45.87% |
| 06/26/26 (Fri) | 42 | 443.3 | 47.2 | 10.65% | 490.5 | 396.1 | 45.62% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 63 | 443.3 | 58.88 | 13.28% | 502.18 | 384.42 | 46.72% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 98 | 443.3 | 76.08 | 17.16% | 519.38 | 367.23 | 48.79% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 126 | 443.3 | 86.42 | 19.5% | 529.72 | 356.88 | 48.81% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 154 | 443.3 | 95.9 | 21.63% | 539.2 | 347.4 | 49.1% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 189 | 443.3 | 107.82 | 24.32% | 551.12 | 335.48 | 49.96% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 217 | 443.3 | 114.81 | 25.9% | 558.11 | 328.49 | 49.72% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 245 | 443.3 | 120.79 | 27.25% | 564.09 | 322.51 | 49.52% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 308 | 443.3 | 136.11 | 30.7% | 579.41 | 307.19 | 49.94% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 398 | 443.3 | 155.49 | 35.07% | 598.79 | 287.81 | 50.44% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 581 | 443.3 | 187.94 | 42.39% | 631.24 | 255.37 | 50.96% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 616 | 443.3 | 193.59 | 43.67% | 636.89 | 249.71 | 50.94% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 763 | 443.3 | 214.5 | 48.39% | 657.8 | 228.8 | 51.28% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 945 | 443.3 | 235.24 | 53.07% | 678.54 | 208.06 | 51.02% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.