Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for AAPL
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11/26 (Fri) | 0 | 332.84 | 1.12 | 0.34% | 333.96 | 331.72 | 1.0% |
| 09/14/26 (Mon) | 3 | 332.84 | 3.79 | 1.14% | 336.63 | 329.05 | 18.2% |
| 09/16/26 (Wed) | 5 | 332.84 | 6.12 | 1.84% | 338.96 | 326.72 | 22.92% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 7 | 332.84 | 7.67 | 2.3% | 340.51 | 325.17 | 24.28% |
| 09/21/26 (Mon) | 10 | 332.84 | 8.5 | 2.55% | 341.34 | 324.34 | 22.61% |
| 09/23/26 (Wed) | 12 | 332.84 | 9.63 | 2.89% | 342.47 | 323.21 | 23.39% |
| 09/25/26 (Fri) | 14 | 332.84 | 10.62 | 3.19% | 343.46 | 322.21 | 23.85% |
| 10/02/26 (Fri) | 21 | 332.84 | 13.03 | 3.91% | 345.87 | 319.81 | 23.73% |
| 10/09/26 (Fri) | 28 | 332.84 | 15.09 | 4.53% | 347.93 | 317.75 | 23.85% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 35 | 332.84 | 16.94 | 5.09% | 349.78 | 315.9 | 23.98% |
| 10/23/26 (Fri) | 42 | 332.84 | 18.55 | 5.57% | 351.39 | 314.29 | 24.0% |
| 10/30/26 (Fri) | 49 | 332.84 | 22.25 | 6.68% | 355.09 | 310.59 | 26.62% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 70 | 332.84 | 26.54 | 7.97% | 359.38 | 306.3 | 26.71% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 98 | 332.84 | 31.0 | 9.31% | 363.84 | 301.84 | 26.31% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 126 | 332.84 | 35.04 | 10.53% | 367.88 | 297.8 | 26.21% |
| 02/19/27 (Fri) | 161 | 332.84 | 41.52 | 12.48% | 374.36 | 291.32 | 27.54% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 189 | 332.84 | 45.28 | 13.61% | 378.12 | 287.56 | 27.71% |
| 04/16/27 (Fri) | 217 | 332.84 | 48.3 | 14.51% | 381.14 | 284.54 | 27.52% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 279 | 332.84 | 55.63 | 16.71% | 388.47 | 277.21 | 27.99% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 371 | 332.84 | 64.69 | 19.43% | 397.52 | 268.15 | 28.21% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 462 | 332.84 | 72.53 | 21.79% | 405.37 | 260.31 | 28.34% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 497 | 332.84 | 75.95 | 22.82% | 408.79 | 256.89 | 28.66% |
| 03/17/28 (Fri) | 553 | 332.84 | 80.43 | 24.17% | 413.27 | 252.41 | 28.81% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 826 | 332.84 | 99.34 | 29.85% | 432.18 | 233.5 | 29.25% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.