Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for AAPL
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/15/26 (Mon) | 2 | 291.81 | 3.32 | 1.14% | 295.13 | 288.49 | 17.71% |
| 06/17/26 (Wed) | 4 | 291.81 | 5.32 | 1.82% | 297.13 | 286.49 | 22.91% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 5 | 291.81 | 6.06 | 2.08% | 297.87 | 285.75 | 23.59% |
| 06/22/26 (Mon) | 9 | 291.81 | 6.95 | 2.38% | 298.76 | 284.86 | 21.02% |
| 06/24/26 (Wed) | 11 | 291.81 | 7.93 | 2.72% | 299.74 | 283.88 | 21.92% |
| 06/26/26 (Fri) | 13 | 291.81 | 8.8 | 3.01% | 300.61 | 283.01 | 22.49% |
| 07/02/26 (Thu) | 19 | 291.81 | 10.67 | 3.66% | 302.48 | 281.14 | 22.79% |
| 07/10/26 (Fri) | 27 | 291.81 | 12.37 | 4.24% | 304.18 | 279.44 | 22.32% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 34 | 291.81 | 13.83 | 4.74% | 305.64 | 277.98 | 22.52% |
| 07/24/26 (Fri) | 41 | 291.81 | 15.81 | 5.42% | 307.62 | 276.0 | 23.38% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 69 | 291.81 | 22.33 | 7.65% | 314.14 | 269.48 | 25.71% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 97 | 291.81 | 26.52 | 9.09% | 318.33 | 265.29 | 25.72% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 125 | 291.81 | 30.28 | 10.38% | 322.09 | 261.53 | 25.9% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 160 | 291.81 | 35.53 | 12.18% | 327.34 | 256.28 | 26.87% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 188 | 291.81 | 38.29 | 13.12% | 330.1 | 253.52 | 26.79% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 216 | 291.81 | 40.86 | 14.0% | 332.67 | 250.95 | 26.65% |
| 02/19/27 (Fri) | 251 | 291.81 | 44.52 | 15.26% | 336.33 | 247.29 | 27.04% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 279 | 291.81 | 47.07 | 16.13% | 338.88 | 244.74 | 27.07% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 369 | 291.81 | 55.14 | 18.9% | 346.95 | 236.67 | 27.62% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 461 | 291.81 | 62.3 | 21.35% | 354.12 | 229.5 | 27.95% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 552 | 291.81 | 68.89 | 23.61% | 360.7 | 222.92 | 28.3% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 587 | 291.81 | 71.14 | 24.38% | 362.95 | 220.67 | 28.34% |
| 03/17/28 (Fri) | 643 | 291.81 | 74.63 | 25.57% | 366.44 | 217.18 | 28.26% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 916 | 291.81 | 90.5 | 31.01% | 382.31 | 201.31 | 29.09% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.