Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for AAPL
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/29/26 (Wed) | 1 | 339.18 | 4.44 | 1.31% | 343.62 | 334.74 | 33.12% |
| 07/31/26 (Fri) | 3 | 339.18 | 11.24 | 3.31% | 350.42 | 327.94 | 51.87% |
| 08/03/26 (Mon) | 6 | 339.18 | 11.84 | 3.49% | 351.02 | 327.34 | 39.32% |
| 08/05/26 (Wed) | 8 | 339.18 | 12.9 | 3.8% | 352.08 | 326.28 | 37.28% |
| 08/07/26 (Fri) | 10 | 339.18 | 13.94 | 4.11% | 353.12 | 325.24 | 36.09% |
| 08/10/26 (Mon) | 13 | 339.18 | 14.96 | 4.41% | 354.14 | 324.22 | 34.01% |
| 08/12/26 (Wed) | 15 | 339.18 | 14.81 | 4.37% | 353.99 | 324.37 | 31.43% |
| 08/14/26 (Fri) | 17 | 339.18 | 16.06 | 4.74% | 355.25 | 323.12 | 32.05% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 24 | 339.18 | 17.85 | 5.26% | 357.03 | 321.33 | 29.98% |
| 08/28/26 (Fri) | 31 | 339.18 | 19.87 | 5.86% | 359.05 | 319.31 | 29.42% |
| 09/04/26 (Fri) | 38 | 339.18 | 21.63 | 6.38% | 360.81 | 317.55 | 28.93% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 52 | 339.18 | 24.86 | 7.33% | 364.04 | 314.32 | 28.45% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 80 | 339.18 | 30.62 | 9.03% | 369.8 | 308.56 | 28.26% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 115 | 339.18 | 37.34 | 11.01% | 376.52 | 301.84 | 28.78% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 143 | 339.18 | 40.86 | 12.05% | 380.04 | 298.32 | 28.21% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 171 | 339.18 | 44.43 | 13.1% | 383.61 | 294.75 | 28.01% |
| 02/19/27 (Fri) | 206 | 339.18 | 49.36 | 14.55% | 388.54 | 289.82 | 28.43% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 234 | 339.18 | 52.68 | 15.53% | 391.86 | 286.5 | 28.45% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 324 | 339.18 | 62.65 | 18.47% | 401.82 | 276.54 | 28.78% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 416 | 339.18 | 71.53 | 21.09% | 410.71 | 267.65 | 29.02% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 507 | 339.18 | 79.79 | 23.53% | 418.97 | 259.39 | 29.37% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 542 | 339.18 | 82.49 | 24.32% | 421.67 | 256.69 | 29.34% |
| 03/17/28 (Fri) | 598 | 339.18 | 86.87 | 25.61% | 426.05 | 252.31 | 29.48% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 871 | 339.18 | 105.29 | 31.04% | 444.47 | 233.89 | 29.75% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.