Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for AAPL
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 (Wed) | 2 | 344.63 | 12.64 | 3.67% | 357.27 | 331.99 | 45.8% |
| 11/06/26 (Fri) | 4 | 344.63 | 13.9 | 4.03% | 358.53 | 330.73 | 42.78% |
| 11/09/26 (Mon) | 7 | 344.63 | 14.68 | 4.26% | 359.31 | 329.95 | 37.68% |
| 11/11/26 (Wed) | 9 | 344.63 | 14.68 | 4.26% | 359.31 | 329.95 | 34.48% |
| 11/13/26 (Fri) | 11 | 344.63 | 15.7 | 4.56% | 360.33 | 328.93 | 34.15% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 18 | 344.63 | 17.53 | 5.09% | 362.16 | 327.1 | 31.13% |
| 11/27/26 (Fri) | 25 | 344.63 | 18.66 | 5.41% | 363.29 | 325.97 | 28.75% |
| 12/04/26 (Fri) | 32 | 344.63 | 19.87 | 5.77% | 364.5 | 324.76 | 27.32% |
| 12/11/26 (Fri) | 39 | 344.63 | 21.97 | 6.38% | 366.6 | 322.66 | 27.57% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 46 | 344.63 | 23.5 | 6.82% | 368.13 | 321.13 | 27.29% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 74 | 344.63 | 28.33 | 8.22% | 372.96 | 316.3 | 26.19% |
| 02/19/27 (Fri) | 109 | 344.63 | 35.95 | 10.43% | 380.58 | 308.68 | 27.56% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 137 | 344.63 | 40.12 | 11.64% | 384.75 | 304.51 | 27.5% |
| 04/16/27 (Fri) | 165 | 344.63 | 42.9 | 12.45% | 387.53 | 301.73 | 26.86% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 227 | 344.63 | 51.83 | 15.04% | 396.46 | 292.8 | 27.75% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 319 | 344.63 | 60.94 | 17.68% | 405.57 | 283.69 | 27.62% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 410 | 344.63 | 69.42 | 20.14% | 414.05 | 275.21 | 27.79% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 445 | 344.63 | 72.61 | 21.07% | 417.24 | 272.02 | 27.91% |
| 03/17/28 (Fri) | 501 | 344.63 | 76.82 | 22.29% | 421.45 | 267.81 | 27.88% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 592 | 344.63 | 83.72 | 24.29% | 428.36 | 260.9 | 28.01% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 774 | 344.63 | 95.31 | 27.65% | 439.94 | 249.32 | 27.95% |
| 01/19/29 (Fri) | 809 | 344.63 | 97.69 | 28.35% | 442.32 | 246.94 | 28.04% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.