Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for AAPL
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/24/26 (Fri) | 1 | 273.43 | 2.68 | 0.98% | 276.11 | 270.75 | 1.0% |
| 04/27/26 (Mon) | 4 | 273.43 | 3.99 | 1.46% | 277.42 | 269.44 | 20.3% |
| 04/29/26 (Wed) | 6 | 273.43 | 5.48 | 2.01% | 278.91 | 267.95 | 22.53% |
| 05/01/26 (Fri) | 8 | 273.43 | 9.61 | 3.51% | 283.04 | 263.82 | 34.86% |
| 05/04/26 (Mon) | 11 | 273.43 | 10.07 | 3.68% | 283.5 | 263.36 | 31.03% |
| 05/06/26 (Wed) | 13 | 273.43 | 10.75 | 3.93% | 284.18 | 262.68 | 30.55% |
| 05/08/26 (Fri) | 15 | 273.43 | 11.45 | 4.19% | 284.88 | 261.98 | 30.31% |
| 05/15/26 (Fri) | 22 | 273.43 | 12.88 | 4.71% | 286.31 | 260.55 | 28.23% |
| 05/22/26 (Fri) | 29 | 273.43 | 14.09 | 5.15% | 287.52 | 259.34 | 26.82% |
| 05/29/26 (Fri) | 36 | 273.43 | 15.24 | 5.57% | 288.67 | 258.19 | 25.98% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 56 | 273.43 | 19.23 | 7.03% | 292.66 | 254.2 | 26.27% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 85 | 273.43 | 23.1 | 8.45% | 296.53 | 250.33 | 25.66% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 120 | 273.43 | 28.6 | 10.46% | 302.03 | 244.83 | 26.84% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 148 | 273.43 | 31.77 | 11.62% | 305.2 | 241.66 | 26.77% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 176 | 273.43 | 34.89 | 12.76% | 308.32 | 238.54 | 26.95% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 211 | 273.43 | 38.82 | 14.2% | 312.25 | 234.61 | 27.51% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 239 | 273.43 | 41.05 | 15.01% | 314.49 | 232.38 | 27.25% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 267 | 273.43 | 43.94 | 16.07% | 317.38 | 229.49 | 27.57% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 330 | 273.43 | 49.43 | 18.08% | 322.86 | 224.0 | 28.01% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 420 | 273.43 | 56.14 | 20.53% | 329.57 | 217.29 | 28.21% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 638 | 273.43 | 70.66 | 25.84% | 344.09 | 202.77 | 28.98% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 967 | 273.43 | 87.49 | 32.0% | 360.92 | 185.94 | 29.43% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.