Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for AAPL
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/26 (Wed) | 2 | 259.57 | 4.08 | 1.57% | 263.65 | 255.49 | 31.05% |
| 03/13/26 (Fri) | 4 | 259.57 | 5.87 | 2.26% | 265.44 | 253.7 | 31.5% |
| 03/16/26 (Mon) | 7 | 259.57 | 6.69 | 2.58% | 266.26 | 252.88 | 27.44% |
| 03/18/26 (Wed) | 9 | 259.57 | 8.01 | 3.09% | 267.58 | 251.56 | 28.95% |
| 03/20/26 (Fri) | 11 | 259.57 | 9.12 | 3.51% | 268.69 | 250.45 | 29.61% |
| 03/27/26 (Fri) | 18 | 259.57 | 11.26 | 4.34% | 270.83 | 248.31 | 28.61% |
| 04/02/26 (Thu) | 24 | 259.57 | 12.71 | 4.9% | 272.28 | 246.86 | 28.08% |
| 04/10/26 (Fri) | 32 | 259.57 | 14.34 | 5.53% | 273.91 | 245.23 | 27.37% |
| 04/17/26 (Fri) | 39 | 259.57 | 15.96 | 6.15% | 275.53 | 243.61 | 27.36% |
| 04/24/26 (Fri) | 46 | 259.57 | 17.17 | 6.61% | 276.74 | 242.4 | 27.32% |
| 05/15/26 (Fri) | 67 | 259.57 | 22.4 | 8.63% | 281.97 | 237.17 | 29.63% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 101 | 259.57 | 27.18 | 10.47% | 286.75 | 232.39 | 29.22% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 130 | 259.57 | 30.34 | 11.69% | 289.91 | 229.22 | 28.72% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 165 | 259.57 | 34.89 | 13.44% | 294.46 | 224.68 | 29.43% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 193 | 259.57 | 37.53 | 14.46% | 297.1 | 222.04 | 29.22% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 256 | 259.57 | 43.52 | 16.77% | 303.09 | 216.05 | 29.49% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 284 | 259.57 | 45.73 | 17.62% | 305.3 | 213.84 | 29.39% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 312 | 259.57 | 47.83 | 18.43% | 307.4 | 211.74 | 29.33% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 375 | 259.57 | 52.61 | 20.27% | 312.19 | 206.95 | 29.49% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 465 | 259.57 | 58.78 | 22.64% | 318.35 | 200.79 | 29.65% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 683 | 259.57 | 71.06 | 27.38% | 330.63 | 188.51 | 29.71% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 1012 | 259.57 | 84.79 | 32.66% | 344.36 | 174.78 | 29.35% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.