Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for AMZN
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/27/26 (Mon) | 2 | 232.11 | 3.22 | 1.39% | 235.33 | 228.89 | 22.27% |
| 07/29/26 (Wed) | 4 | 232.11 | 5.78 | 2.49% | 237.89 | 226.33 | 31.21% |
| 07/31/26 (Fri) | 6 | 232.11 | 14.19 | 6.12% | 246.31 | 217.92 | 64.86% |
| 08/03/26 (Mon) | 9 | 232.11 | 15.15 | 6.53% | 247.26 | 216.96 | 58.02% |
| 08/05/26 (Wed) | 11 | 232.11 | 15.53 | 6.69% | 247.64 | 216.58 | 54.31% |
| 08/07/26 (Fri) | 13 | 232.11 | 16.0 | 6.89% | 248.11 | 216.11 | 51.74% |
| 08/14/26 (Fri) | 20 | 232.11 | 17.34 | 7.47% | 249.45 | 214.77 | 45.78% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 27 | 232.11 | 18.68 | 8.05% | 250.79 | 213.43 | 42.76% |
| 08/28/26 (Fri) | 34 | 232.11 | 19.91 | 8.58% | 252.02 | 212.2 | 40.79% |
| 09/04/26 (Fri) | 41 | 232.11 | 21.25 | 9.16% | 253.36 | 210.86 | 39.7% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 55 | 232.11 | 23.44 | 10.1% | 255.55 | 208.67 | 37.93% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 83 | 232.11 | 27.54 | 11.87% | 259.65 | 204.57 | 36.37% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 118 | 232.11 | 33.91 | 14.61% | 266.03 | 198.2 | 37.67% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 146 | 232.11 | 36.83 | 15.87% | 268.94 | 195.28 | 36.82% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 174 | 232.11 | 39.65 | 17.08% | 271.76 | 192.46 | 36.31% |
| 02/19/27 (Fri) | 209 | 232.11 | 43.9 | 18.91% | 276.01 | 188.21 | 36.74% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 237 | 232.11 | 46.54 | 20.05% | 278.65 | 185.57 | 36.59% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 327 | 232.11 | 55.06 | 23.72% | 287.17 | 177.05 | 36.93% |
| 07/16/27 (Fri) | 356 | 232.11 | 56.99 | 24.55% | 289.1 | 175.12 | 36.66% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 510 | 232.11 | 69.76 | 30.06% | 301.87 | 162.35 | 37.65% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 545 | 232.11 | 71.95 | 31.0% | 304.06 | 160.16 | 37.59% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 692 | 232.11 | 81.83 | 35.26% | 313.94 | 150.28 | 38.12% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 874 | 232.11 | 92.99 | 40.06% | 325.1 | 139.12 | 38.77% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.