Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for AMZN
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/26 (Mon) | 0 | 246.03 | 4.5 | 1.83% | 250.53 | 241.53 | 1.0% |
| 06/10/26 (Wed) | 2 | 246.03 | 6.91 | 2.81% | 252.94 | 239.12 | 34.97% |
| 06/12/26 (Fri) | 4 | 246.03 | 8.18 | 3.33% | 254.21 | 237.85 | 36.3% |
| 06/17/26 (Wed) | 9 | 246.03 | 10.43 | 4.24% | 256.46 | 235.6 | 34.33% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 10 | 246.03 | 11.11 | 4.52% | 257.14 | 234.92 | 35.06% |
| 06/26/26 (Fri) | 18 | 246.03 | 13.73 | 5.58% | 259.76 | 232.3 | 34.07% |
| 07/02/26 (Thu) | 24 | 246.03 | 15.34 | 6.24% | 261.37 | 230.69 | 33.63% |
| 07/10/26 (Fri) | 32 | 246.03 | 17.15 | 6.97% | 263.18 | 228.88 | 33.02% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 39 | 246.03 | 18.79 | 7.64% | 264.81 | 227.25 | 32.98% |
| 07/24/26 (Fri) | 46 | 246.03 | 20.31 | 8.26% | 266.35 | 225.72 | 33.22% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 74 | 246.03 | 28.69 | 11.66% | 274.72 | 217.34 | 37.3% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 102 | 246.03 | 32.66 | 13.28% | 278.69 | 213.37 | 36.39% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 130 | 246.03 | 36.25 | 14.73% | 282.28 | 209.78 | 35.93% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 165 | 246.03 | 42.29 | 17.19% | 288.32 | 203.74 | 37.32% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 193 | 246.03 | 45.09 | 18.33% | 291.12 | 200.94 | 36.86% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 221 | 246.03 | 47.49 | 19.3% | 293.52 | 198.54 | 36.17% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 284 | 246.03 | 54.29 | 22.07% | 300.32 | 191.74 | 36.73% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 374 | 246.03 | 62.98 | 25.6% | 309.01 | 183.05 | 37.26% |
| 07/16/27 (Fri) | 403 | 246.03 | 65.24 | 26.52% | 311.27 | 180.79 | 37.08% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 557 | 246.03 | 77.82 | 31.63% | 323.85 | 168.21 | 37.95% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 592 | 246.03 | 80.11 | 32.56% | 326.14 | 165.92 | 37.7% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 739 | 246.03 | 90.5 | 36.79% | 336.53 | 155.53 | 38.29% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 921 | 246.03 | 101.13 | 41.1% | 347.16 | 144.9 | 38.52% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.