Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for AMZN
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/26 (Wed) | 2 | 213.34 | 4.32 | 2.02% | 217.66 | 209.02 | 39.53% |
| 03/13/26 (Fri) | 4 | 213.34 | 6.04 | 2.83% | 219.38 | 207.3 | 39.3% |
| 03/16/26 (Mon) | 7 | 213.34 | 6.84 | 3.21% | 220.18 | 206.5 | 33.91% |
| 03/18/26 (Wed) | 9 | 213.34 | 8.2 | 3.84% | 221.54 | 205.14 | 35.91% |
| 03/20/26 (Fri) | 11 | 213.34 | 9.29 | 4.35% | 222.63 | 204.05 | 36.77% |
| 03/27/26 (Fri) | 18 | 213.34 | 11.26 | 5.28% | 224.6 | 202.08 | 34.73% |
| 04/02/26 (Thu) | 24 | 213.34 | 12.81 | 6.01% | 226.15 | 200.53 | 34.24% |
| 04/10/26 (Fri) | 32 | 213.34 | 14.47 | 6.78% | 227.81 | 198.87 | 33.58% |
| 04/17/26 (Fri) | 39 | 213.34 | 16.09 | 7.54% | 229.43 | 197.25 | 33.78% |
| 04/24/26 (Fri) | 46 | 213.34 | 17.94 | 8.41% | 231.28 | 195.41 | 34.7% |
| 05/15/26 (Fri) | 67 | 213.34 | 24.73 | 11.59% | 238.07 | 188.61 | 39.69% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 101 | 213.34 | 28.96 | 13.58% | 242.3 | 184.38 | 37.92% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 130 | 213.34 | 32.19 | 15.09% | 245.53 | 181.15 | 37.16% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 165 | 213.34 | 37.76 | 17.7% | 251.1 | 175.58 | 38.73% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 193 | 213.34 | 40.04 | 18.77% | 253.38 | 173.31 | 37.96% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 221 | 213.34 | 42.35 | 19.85% | 255.69 | 170.99 | 37.52% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 256 | 213.34 | 46.22 | 21.66% | 259.56 | 167.12 | 38.1% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 284 | 213.34 | 48.13 | 22.56% | 261.47 | 165.21 | 37.68% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 312 | 213.34 | 50.0 | 23.44% | 263.34 | 163.34 | 37.37% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 465 | 213.34 | 61.6 | 28.88% | 274.94 | 151.74 | 37.87% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 648 | 213.34 | 72.72 | 34.09% | 286.06 | 140.62 | 38.06% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 683 | 213.34 | 73.8 | 34.59% | 287.14 | 139.54 | 37.85% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 1012 | 213.34 | 89.76 | 42.07% | 303.1 | 123.58 | 38.21% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.