Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for AMZN
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/24/26 (Fri) | 1 | 255.08 | 2.95 | 1.15% | 258.03 | 252.13 | 1.0% |
| 04/27/26 (Mon) | 4 | 255.08 | 4.57 | 1.79% | 259.65 | 250.51 | 24.7% |
| 05/01/26 (Fri) | 8 | 255.08 | 16.36 | 6.41% | 271.44 | 238.72 | 63.78% |
| 05/04/26 (Mon) | 11 | 255.08 | 16.87 | 6.61% | 271.95 | 238.21 | 56.15% |
| 05/08/26 (Fri) | 15 | 255.08 | 17.83 | 6.99% | 272.91 | 237.25 | 50.77% |
| 05/15/26 (Fri) | 22 | 255.08 | 19.04 | 7.46% | 274.12 | 236.04 | 44.77% |
| 05/22/26 (Fri) | 29 | 255.08 | 20.38 | 7.99% | 275.46 | 234.7 | 41.72% |
| 05/29/26 (Fri) | 36 | 255.08 | 21.29 | 8.35% | 276.37 | 233.79 | 39.14% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 56 | 255.08 | 25.01 | 9.81% | 280.09 | 230.07 | 36.84% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 85 | 255.08 | 29.5 | 11.56% | 284.57 | 225.59 | 35.27% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 120 | 255.08 | 36.53 | 14.32% | 291.61 | 218.55 | 36.8% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 148 | 255.08 | 39.76 | 15.59% | 294.84 | 215.32 | 36.06% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 176 | 255.08 | 42.9 | 16.82% | 297.98 | 212.18 | 35.67% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 211 | 255.08 | 48.11 | 18.86% | 303.19 | 206.97 | 36.58% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 239 | 255.08 | 50.57 | 19.83% | 305.66 | 204.51 | 36.14% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 267 | 255.08 | 52.91 | 20.74% | 307.99 | 202.17 | 35.77% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 330 | 255.08 | 59.54 | 23.34% | 314.62 | 195.54 | 36.26% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 420 | 255.08 | 67.75 | 26.56% | 322.83 | 187.34 | 36.67% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 603 | 255.08 | 82.3 | 32.26% | 337.38 | 172.78 | 37.1% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 785 | 255.08 | 93.71 | 36.74% | 348.79 | 161.37 | 37.1% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 967 | 255.08 | 104.04 | 40.79% | 359.12 | 151.04 | 37.42% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.