Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for AMZN
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/02/26 (Mon) | 0 | 240.35 | 5.19 | 2.16% | 245.53 | 235.16 | 1.0% |
| 11/04/26 (Wed) | 2 | 240.35 | 7.29 | 3.03% | 247.64 | 233.06 | 38.25% |
| 11/06/26 (Fri) | 4 | 240.35 | 8.54 | 3.55% | 248.89 | 231.81 | 37.63% |
| 11/09/26 (Mon) | 7 | 240.35 | 9.9 | 4.12% | 250.25 | 230.45 | 36.5% |
| 11/11/26 (Wed) | 9 | 240.35 | 10.46 | 4.35% | 250.81 | 229.89 | 35.19% |
| 11/13/26 (Fri) | 11 | 240.35 | 11.28 | 4.69% | 251.63 | 229.07 | 35.26% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 18 | 240.35 | 13.28 | 5.53% | 253.63 | 227.07 | 33.8% |
| 11/27/26 (Fri) | 25 | 240.35 | 14.45 | 6.01% | 254.8 | 225.9 | 31.91% |
| 12/04/26 (Fri) | 32 | 240.35 | 16.21 | 6.75% | 256.56 | 224.14 | 31.96% |
| 12/11/26 (Fri) | 39 | 240.35 | 17.28 | 7.19% | 257.63 | 223.07 | 31.05% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 46 | 240.35 | 19.4 | 8.07% | 259.75 | 220.95 | 32.34% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 74 | 240.35 | 24.08 | 10.02% | 264.43 | 216.27 | 31.97% |
| 02/19/27 (Fri) | 109 | 240.35 | 31.83 | 13.24% | 272.18 | 208.52 | 35.1% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 137 | 240.35 | 35.23 | 14.66% | 275.58 | 205.12 | 34.77% |
| 04/16/27 (Fri) | 165 | 240.35 | 38.34 | 15.95% | 278.69 | 202.01 | 34.5% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 227 | 240.35 | 46.05 | 19.16% | 286.4 | 194.3 | 35.48% |
| 07/16/27 (Fri) | 256 | 240.35 | 48.09 | 20.01% | 288.44 | 192.26 | 34.91% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 319 | 240.35 | 54.53 | 22.69% | 294.88 | 185.82 | 35.55% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 410 | 240.35 | 62.43 | 25.98% | 302.78 | 177.92 | 35.99% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 445 | 240.35 | 64.94 | 27.02% | 305.29 | 175.41 | 35.97% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 592 | 240.35 | 74.91 | 31.17% | 315.26 | 165.44 | 36.09% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 774 | 240.35 | 85.79 | 35.69% | 326.14 | 154.56 | 36.42% |
| 01/19/29 (Fri) | 809 | 240.35 | 86.7 | 36.07% | 327.05 | 153.65 | 35.86% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.