Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for AMZN
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09/26 (Wed) | 1 | 257.13 | 2.94 | 1.14% | 260.07 | 254.2 | 30.26% |
| 09/11/26 (Fri) | 3 | 257.13 | 5.33 | 2.07% | 262.46 | 251.81 | 33.02% |
| 09/14/26 (Mon) | 6 | 257.13 | 6.42 | 2.5% | 263.56 | 250.71 | 27.91% |
| 09/16/26 (Wed) | 8 | 257.13 | 7.82 | 3.04% | 264.95 | 249.31 | 29.63% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 10 | 257.13 | 8.99 | 3.5% | 266.12 | 248.15 | 30.93% |
| 09/21/26 (Mon) | 13 | 257.13 | 9.9 | 3.85% | 267.04 | 247.23 | 29.67% |
| 09/23/26 (Wed) | 15 | 257.13 | 10.58 | 4.12% | 267.72 | 246.55 | 29.56% |
| 09/25/26 (Fri) | 17 | 257.13 | 11.67 | 4.54% | 268.8 | 245.47 | 30.55% |
| 10/02/26 (Fri) | 24 | 257.13 | 13.77 | 5.36% | 270.9 | 243.36 | 30.49% |
| 10/09/26 (Fri) | 31 | 257.13 | 15.79 | 6.14% | 272.92 | 241.35 | 30.82% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 38 | 257.13 | 17.62 | 6.85% | 274.75 | 239.52 | 31.09% |
| 10/23/26 (Fri) | 45 | 257.13 | 19.32 | 7.51% | 276.45 | 237.82 | 31.34% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 73 | 257.13 | 28.77 | 11.19% | 285.91 | 228.36 | 36.82% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 101 | 257.13 | 32.62 | 12.69% | 289.75 | 224.52 | 35.52% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 129 | 257.13 | 36.04 | 14.02% | 293.18 | 221.09 | 34.68% |
| 02/19/27 (Fri) | 164 | 257.13 | 42.22 | 16.42% | 299.36 | 214.91 | 36.07% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 192 | 257.13 | 45.48 | 17.69% | 302.61 | 211.66 | 35.91% |
| 04/16/27 (Fri) | 220 | 257.13 | 48.05 | 18.69% | 305.18 | 209.09 | 35.45% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 282 | 257.13 | 55.36 | 21.53% | 312.49 | 201.78 | 36.12% |
| 07/16/27 (Fri) | 311 | 257.13 | 57.18 | 22.24% | 314.32 | 199.95 | 35.52% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 374 | 257.13 | 64.07 | 24.92% | 321.2 | 193.07 | 36.37% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 465 | 257.13 | 71.51 | 27.81% | 328.64 | 185.63 | 36.45% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 500 | 257.13 | 74.33 | 28.91% | 331.47 | 182.8 | 36.37% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 647 | 257.13 | 85.77 | 33.35% | 342.9 | 171.37 | 37.05% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 829 | 257.13 | 96.71 | 37.61% | 353.84 | 160.43 | 37.04% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.