Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for GOOGL
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/26 (Wed) | 2 | 306.25 | 5.46 | 1.78% | 311.71 | 300.79 | 34.84% |
| 03/13/26 (Fri) | 4 | 306.25 | 7.82 | 2.55% | 314.07 | 298.43 | 35.53% |
| 03/16/26 (Mon) | 7 | 306.25 | 9.09 | 2.97% | 315.35 | 297.15 | 31.31% |
| 03/18/26 (Wed) | 9 | 306.25 | 10.79 | 3.52% | 317.05 | 295.45 | 32.78% |
| 03/20/26 (Fri) | 11 | 306.25 | 12.2 | 3.98% | 318.45 | 294.05 | 33.66% |
| 03/27/26 (Fri) | 18 | 306.25 | 15.3 | 5.0% | 321.55 | 290.95 | 33.01% |
| 04/02/26 (Thu) | 24 | 306.25 | 17.47 | 5.7% | 323.72 | 288.78 | 32.63% |
| 04/10/26 (Fri) | 32 | 306.25 | 20.06 | 6.55% | 326.31 | 286.19 | 32.45% |
| 04/17/26 (Fri) | 39 | 306.25 | 22.36 | 7.3% | 328.61 | 283.89 | 32.79% |
| 05/15/26 (Fri) | 67 | 306.25 | 33.32 | 10.88% | 339.57 | 272.93 | 37.42% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 101 | 306.25 | 40.1 | 13.09% | 346.35 | 266.15 | 36.73% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 130 | 306.25 | 44.71 | 14.6% | 350.96 | 261.54 | 36.08% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 165 | 306.25 | 51.51 | 16.82% | 357.76 | 254.74 | 36.88% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 193 | 306.25 | 54.78 | 17.89% | 361.03 | 251.47 | 36.34% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 312 | 306.25 | 68.7 | 22.43% | 374.95 | 237.55 | 35.92% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.