Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for GOOGL
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09/26 (Wed) | 0 | 338.17 | 3.72 | 1.1% | 341.89 | 334.45 | 1.0% |
| 09/11/26 (Fri) | 2 | 338.17 | 6.84 | 2.02% | 345.01 | 331.33 | 32.53% |
| 09/14/26 (Mon) | 5 | 338.17 | 8.18 | 2.42% | 346.35 | 329.99 | 27.41% |
| 09/16/26 (Wed) | 7 | 338.17 | 10.07 | 2.98% | 348.24 | 328.1 | 29.38% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 9 | 338.17 | 11.43 | 3.38% | 349.6 | 326.74 | 29.96% |
| 09/21/26 (Mon) | 12 | 338.17 | 12.28 | 3.63% | 350.45 | 325.89 | 28.17% |
| 09/23/26 (Wed) | 14 | 338.17 | 13.66 | 4.04% | 351.83 | 324.51 | 29.18% |
| 09/25/26 (Fri) | 16 | 338.17 | 14.88 | 4.4% | 353.05 | 323.3 | 29.8% |
| 10/02/26 (Fri) | 23 | 338.17 | 17.64 | 5.22% | 355.81 | 320.53 | 29.76% |
| 10/09/26 (Fri) | 30 | 338.17 | 19.97 | 5.91% | 358.15 | 318.19 | 29.66% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 37 | 338.17 | 22.36 | 6.61% | 360.53 | 315.81 | 30.21% |
| 10/23/26 (Fri) | 44 | 338.17 | 24.95 | 7.38% | 363.12 | 313.22 | 30.77% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 72 | 338.17 | 35.89 | 10.61% | 374.06 | 302.28 | 34.8% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 100 | 338.17 | 40.91 | 12.1% | 379.08 | 297.26 | 33.77% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 128 | 338.17 | 45.58 | 13.48% | 383.75 | 292.59 | 33.48% |
| 02/19/27 (Fri) | 163 | 338.17 | 53.61 | 15.85% | 391.78 | 284.56 | 34.73% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 191 | 338.17 | 57.69 | 17.06% | 395.86 | 280.48 | 34.6% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 281 | 338.17 | 70.3 | 20.79% | 408.47 | 267.88 | 34.84% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 373 | 338.17 | 80.64 | 23.85% | 418.81 | 257.53 | 34.75% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 464 | 338.17 | 89.59 | 26.49% | 427.76 | 248.58 | 34.66% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 499 | 338.17 | 94.27 | 27.88% | 432.44 | 243.91 | 35.2% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 646 | 338.17 | 107.72 | 31.85% | 445.89 | 230.45 | 35.53% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 828 | 338.17 | 122.04 | 36.09% | 460.21 | 216.13 | 36.06% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.