Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for GOOGL
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/24/26 (Fri) | 1 | 338.89 | 3.91 | 1.15% | 342.8 | 334.98 | 1.0% |
| 04/27/26 (Mon) | 4 | 338.89 | 5.78 | 1.71% | 344.67 | 333.11 | 23.76% |
| 05/01/26 (Fri) | 8 | 338.89 | 16.94 | 5.0% | 355.83 | 321.95 | 49.66% |
| 05/04/26 (Mon) | 11 | 338.89 | 17.25 | 5.09% | 356.14 | 321.63 | 43.1% |
| 05/06/26 (Wed) | 13 | 338.89 | 18.42 | 5.44% | 357.31 | 320.47 | 42.34% |
| 05/08/26 (Fri) | 15 | 338.89 | 19.08 | 5.63% | 357.97 | 319.81 | 40.78% |
| 05/15/26 (Fri) | 22 | 338.89 | 21.5 | 6.35% | 360.39 | 317.38 | 37.96% |
| 05/22/26 (Fri) | 29 | 338.89 | 24.27 | 7.16% | 363.16 | 314.62 | 37.3% |
| 05/29/26 (Fri) | 36 | 338.89 | 25.33 | 7.47% | 364.22 | 313.56 | 34.96% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 56 | 338.89 | 31.02 | 9.15% | 369.91 | 307.87 | 34.36% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 85 | 338.89 | 37.15 | 10.96% | 376.03 | 301.75 | 33.38% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 120 | 338.89 | 46.47 | 13.71% | 385.36 | 292.42 | 35.16% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 176 | 338.89 | 55.33 | 16.33% | 394.22 | 283.56 | 34.63% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 239 | 338.89 | 64.85 | 19.14% | 403.75 | 274.03 | 34.9% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 267 | 338.89 | 67.51 | 19.92% | 406.4 | 271.38 | 34.56% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 330 | 338.89 | 75.78 | 22.36% | 414.67 | 263.11 | 34.78% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 420 | 338.89 | 86.23 | 25.45% | 425.12 | 252.66 | 35.13% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 603 | 338.89 | 105.23 | 31.05% | 444.12 | 233.66 | 35.99% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 638 | 338.89 | 108.35 | 31.97% | 447.24 | 230.54 | 36.05% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 967 | 338.89 | 130.75 | 38.58% | 469.64 | 208.14 | 35.7% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.