Options Analytics

Expected Move

Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for GOOGL

Expiration Date DTE Price~ Expected Move Expected Move% Upper Bound Lower Bound Implied Volatility
04/24/26 (Fri) 1 338.89 3.91 1.15% 342.8 334.98 1.0%
04/27/26 (Mon) 4 338.89 5.78 1.71% 344.67 333.11 23.76%
05/01/26 (Fri) 8 338.89 16.94 5.0% 355.83 321.95 49.66%
05/04/26 (Mon) 11 338.89 17.25 5.09% 356.14 321.63 43.1%
05/06/26 (Wed) 13 338.89 18.42 5.44% 357.31 320.47 42.34%
05/08/26 (Fri) 15 338.89 19.08 5.63% 357.97 319.81 40.78%
05/15/26 (Fri) 22 338.89 21.5 6.35% 360.39 317.38 37.96%
05/22/26 (Fri) 29 338.89 24.27 7.16% 363.16 314.62 37.3%
05/29/26 (Fri) 36 338.89 25.33 7.47% 364.22 313.56 34.96%
06/18/26 (Thu) 56 338.89 31.02 9.15% 369.91 307.87 34.36%
07/17/26 (Fri) 85 338.89 37.15 10.96% 376.03 301.75 33.38%
08/21/26 (Fri) 120 338.89 46.47 13.71% 385.36 292.42 35.16%
10/16/26 (Fri) 176 338.89 55.33 16.33% 394.22 283.56 34.63%
12/18/26 (Fri) 239 338.89 64.85 19.14% 403.75 274.03 34.9%
01/15/27 (Fri) 267 338.89 67.51 19.92% 406.4 271.38 34.56%
03/19/27 (Fri) 330 338.89 75.78 22.36% 414.67 263.11 34.78%
06/17/27 (Thu) 420 338.89 86.23 25.45% 425.12 252.66 35.13%
12/17/27 (Fri) 603 338.89 105.23 31.05% 444.12 233.66 35.99%
01/21/28 (Fri) 638 338.89 108.35 31.97% 447.24 230.54 36.05%
12/15/28 (Fri) 967 338.89 130.75 38.58% 469.64 208.14 35.7%

Understanding Expected Move

What is the Expected Move?

The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.

How to interpret the outputs

The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.

Practical applications

  • Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
  • Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
  • Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
  • Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.