Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for GOOGL
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/02/26 (Mon) | 0 | 279.84 | 4.73 | 1.69% | 284.57 | 275.11 | 1.0% |
| 11/04/26 (Wed) | 2 | 279.84 | 7.63 | 2.73% | 287.47 | 272.21 | 34.35% |
| 11/06/26 (Fri) | 4 | 279.84 | 9.22 | 3.3% | 289.06 | 270.62 | 35.02% |
| 11/09/26 (Mon) | 7 | 279.84 | 10.6 | 3.79% | 290.44 | 269.24 | 33.57% |
| 11/11/26 (Wed) | 9 | 279.84 | 11.13 | 3.98% | 290.97 | 268.7 | 32.18% |
| 11/13/26 (Fri) | 11 | 279.84 | 12.45 | 4.45% | 292.29 | 267.39 | 33.15% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 18 | 279.84 | 14.66 | 5.24% | 294.5 | 265.18 | 32.13% |
| 11/27/26 (Fri) | 25 | 279.84 | 16.26 | 5.81% | 296.1 | 263.58 | 30.81% |
| 12/04/26 (Fri) | 32 | 279.84 | 18.27 | 6.53% | 298.11 | 261.56 | 30.89% |
| 12/11/26 (Fri) | 39 | 279.84 | 19.7 | 7.04% | 299.54 | 260.14 | 30.46% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 46 | 279.84 | 21.76 | 7.78% | 301.6 | 258.08 | 31.14% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 74 | 279.84 | 27.01 | 9.65% | 306.85 | 252.83 | 30.78% |
| 02/19/27 (Fri) | 109 | 279.84 | 35.3 | 12.61% | 315.14 | 244.54 | 33.38% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 137 | 279.84 | 39.52 | 14.12% | 319.36 | 240.31 | 33.63% |
| 04/16/27 (Fri) | 165 | 279.84 | 43.12 | 15.41% | 322.96 | 236.72 | 33.38% |
| 05/21/27 (Fri) | 200 | 279.84 | 49.02 | 17.52% | 328.86 | 230.82 | 34.5% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 227 | 279.84 | 52.0 | 18.58% | 331.84 | 227.84 | 34.46% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 319 | 279.84 | 61.09 | 21.83% | 340.93 | 218.75 | 34.25% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 410 | 279.84 | 70.25 | 25.1% | 350.09 | 209.59 | 34.86% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 445 | 279.84 | 73.99 | 26.44% | 353.83 | 205.85 | 35.26% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 592 | 279.84 | 84.7 | 30.27% | 364.54 | 195.14 | 35.19% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 774 | 279.84 | 97.62 | 34.89% | 377.46 | 182.22 | 35.7% |
| 01/19/29 (Fri) | 809 | 279.84 | 98.43 | 35.17% | 378.27 | 181.41 | 35.35% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.