Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for GOOGL
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/27/26 (Mon) | 2 | 319.74 | 4.28 | 1.34% | 324.02 | 315.46 | 22.27% |
| 07/29/26 (Wed) | 4 | 319.74 | 7.29 | 2.28% | 327.03 | 312.45 | 30.11% |
| 07/31/26 (Fri) | 6 | 319.74 | 9.44 | 2.95% | 329.18 | 310.31 | 31.38% |
| 08/03/26 (Mon) | 9 | 319.74 | 10.33 | 3.23% | 330.07 | 309.41 | 28.62% |
| 08/05/26 (Wed) | 11 | 319.74 | 11.81 | 3.7% | 331.56 | 307.93 | 29.96% |
| 08/07/26 (Fri) | 13 | 319.74 | 13.09 | 4.09% | 332.83 | 306.65 | 30.67% |
| 08/14/26 (Fri) | 20 | 319.74 | 15.96 | 4.99% | 335.7 | 303.78 | 30.53% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 27 | 319.74 | 18.47 | 5.78% | 338.21 | 301.27 | 30.59% |
| 08/28/26 (Fri) | 34 | 319.74 | 20.63 | 6.45% | 340.37 | 299.11 | 30.99% |
| 09/04/26 (Fri) | 41 | 319.74 | 22.21 | 6.95% | 341.95 | 297.53 | 30.45% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 55 | 319.74 | 26.41 | 8.26% | 346.15 | 293.33 | 30.84% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 83 | 319.74 | 32.94 | 10.3% | 352.68 | 286.8 | 31.53% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 118 | 319.74 | 41.86 | 13.09% | 361.6 | 277.88 | 33.67% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 146 | 319.74 | 46.26 | 14.47% | 366.0 | 273.48 | 33.53% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 174 | 319.74 | 50.09 | 15.66% | 369.83 | 269.65 | 33.43% |
| 02/19/27 (Fri) | 209 | 319.74 | 56.99 | 17.82% | 376.73 | 262.75 | 34.57% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 237 | 319.74 | 59.82 | 18.71% | 379.56 | 259.92 | 34.13% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 327 | 319.74 | 71.38 | 22.32% | 391.12 | 248.36 | 34.75% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 419 | 319.74 | 83.34 | 26.07% | 403.08 | 236.4 | 35.98% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 510 | 319.74 | 92.44 | 28.91% | 412.18 | 227.3 | 36.27% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 545 | 319.74 | 95.56 | 29.89% | 415.3 | 224.18 | 36.27% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 692 | 319.74 | 109.71 | 34.31% | 429.45 | 210.03 | 37.2% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 874 | 319.74 | 125.63 | 39.29% | 445.37 | 194.11 | 38.2% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.