Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for META
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/27/26 (Mon) | 2 | 595.19 | 10.79 | 1.81% | 605.99 | 584.4 | 29.36% |
| 07/31/26 (Fri) | 6 | 595.19 | 42.41 | 7.13% | 637.61 | 552.78 | 75.7% |
| 08/03/26 (Mon) | 9 | 595.19 | 44.73 | 7.52% | 639.92 | 550.46 | 66.88% |
| 08/05/26 (Wed) | 11 | 595.19 | 47.05 | 7.9% | 642.24 | 548.14 | 64.22% |
| 08/07/26 (Fri) | 13 | 595.19 | 48.34 | 8.12% | 643.53 | 546.85 | 61.05% |
| 08/14/26 (Fri) | 20 | 595.19 | 52.59 | 8.84% | 647.78 | 542.6 | 54.25% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 27 | 595.19 | 56.99 | 9.58% | 652.18 | 538.2 | 50.91% |
| 08/28/26 (Fri) | 34 | 595.19 | 60.6 | 10.18% | 655.8 | 534.59 | 48.44% |
| 09/04/26 (Fri) | 41 | 595.19 | 65.17 | 10.95% | 660.36 | 530.02 | 47.52% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 55 | 595.19 | 70.87 | 11.91% | 666.06 | 524.32 | 44.8% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 83 | 595.19 | 83.45 | 14.02% | 678.64 | 511.74 | 43.15% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 118 | 595.19 | 103.08 | 17.32% | 698.27 | 492.11 | 44.79% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 146 | 595.19 | 112.09 | 18.83% | 707.28 | 483.1 | 43.94% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 174 | 595.19 | 120.91 | 20.31% | 716.1 | 474.28 | 43.31% |
| 02/19/27 (Fri) | 209 | 595.19 | 133.34 | 22.4% | 728.53 | 461.85 | 43.63% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 237 | 595.19 | 141.23 | 23.73% | 736.42 | 453.96 | 43.67% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 327 | 595.19 | 165.01 | 27.72% | 760.2 | 430.18 | 43.48% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 419 | 595.19 | 186.77 | 31.38% | 781.96 | 408.42 | 43.59% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 510 | 595.19 | 205.28 | 34.49% | 800.47 | 389.92 | 43.67% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 545 | 595.19 | 212.63 | 35.72% | 807.82 | 382.56 | 43.81% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 692 | 595.19 | 240.76 | 40.45% | 835.95 | 354.43 | 44.4% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 874 | 595.19 | 268.96 | 45.19% | 864.15 | 326.23 | 44.54% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.