Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for META
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/26 (Mon) | 0 | 593.0 | 12.81 | 2.16% | 605.81 | 580.19 | 1.0% |
| 06/10/26 (Wed) | 2 | 593.0 | 19.23 | 3.24% | 612.23 | 573.77 | 40.75% |
| 06/12/26 (Fri) | 4 | 593.0 | 22.06 | 3.72% | 615.06 | 570.94 | 39.44% |
| 06/15/26 (Mon) | 7 | 593.0 | 23.84 | 4.02% | 616.84 | 569.16 | 35.84% |
| 06/17/26 (Wed) | 9 | 593.0 | 27.31 | 4.6% | 620.31 | 565.69 | 37.38% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 10 | 593.0 | 28.24 | 4.76% | 621.24 | 564.76 | 37.28% |
| 06/26/26 (Fri) | 18 | 593.0 | 34.72 | 5.86% | 627.72 | 558.28 | 35.64% |
| 07/02/26 (Thu) | 24 | 593.0 | 39.35 | 6.64% | 632.36 | 553.64 | 35.78% |
| 07/10/26 (Fri) | 32 | 593.0 | 43.27 | 7.3% | 636.26 | 549.74 | 34.56% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 39 | 593.0 | 47.62 | 8.03% | 640.62 | 545.38 | 34.76% |
| 07/24/26 (Fri) | 46 | 593.0 | 52.02 | 8.77% | 645.02 | 540.98 | 35.16% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 74 | 593.0 | 73.35 | 12.37% | 666.36 | 519.64 | 39.62% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 102 | 593.0 | 83.51 | 14.08% | 676.51 | 509.49 | 38.65% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 130 | 593.0 | 92.82 | 15.65% | 685.82 | 500.18 | 38.32% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 165 | 593.0 | 108.44 | 18.29% | 701.44 | 484.56 | 39.79% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 193 | 593.0 | 115.96 | 19.56% | 708.96 | 477.04 | 39.5% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 221 | 593.0 | 122.4 | 20.64% | 715.4 | 470.6 | 39.06% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 284 | 593.0 | 139.36 | 23.5% | 732.36 | 453.64 | 39.51% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 374 | 593.0 | 160.86 | 27.13% | 753.86 | 432.14 | 39.62% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 466 | 593.0 | 179.58 | 30.28% | 772.58 | 413.42 | 39.96% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 557 | 593.0 | 195.31 | 32.94% | 788.31 | 397.69 | 39.96% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 592 | 593.0 | 201.88 | 34.04% | 794.88 | 391.12 | 40.1% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 739 | 593.0 | 226.25 | 38.15% | 819.25 | 366.75 | 40.54% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 921 | 593.0 | 249.99 | 42.16% | 842.99 | 343.01 | 40.45% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.