Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for META
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/02/26 (Mon) | 0 | 614.99 | 11.33 | 1.84% | 626.32 | 603.66 | 1.0% |
| 11/04/26 (Wed) | 2 | 614.99 | 19.38 | 3.15% | 634.37 | 595.61 | 39.42% |
| 11/06/26 (Fri) | 4 | 614.99 | 23.74 | 3.86% | 638.73 | 591.25 | 40.73% |
| 11/09/26 (Mon) | 7 | 614.99 | 25.65 | 4.17% | 640.64 | 589.34 | 37.0% |
| 11/11/26 (Wed) | 9 | 614.99 | 29.66 | 4.82% | 644.65 | 585.33 | 39.09% |
| 11/13/26 (Fri) | 11 | 614.99 | 33.15 | 5.39% | 648.14 | 581.84 | 40.4% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 18 | 614.99 | 40.18 | 6.53% | 655.17 | 574.81 | 40.01% |
| 11/27/26 (Fri) | 25 | 614.99 | 44.71 | 7.27% | 659.7 | 570.28 | 38.65% |
| 12/04/26 (Fri) | 32 | 614.99 | 49.79 | 8.1% | 664.78 | 565.2 | 38.41% |
| 12/11/26 (Fri) | 39 | 614.99 | 54.78 | 8.91% | 669.77 | 560.21 | 38.59% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 46 | 614.99 | 59.12 | 9.61% | 674.11 | 555.87 | 38.64% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 74 | 614.99 | 73.02 | 11.87% | 688.0 | 541.98 | 38.07% |
| 02/19/27 (Fri) | 109 | 614.99 | 95.01 | 15.45% | 710.0 | 519.98 | 41.19% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 137 | 614.99 | 104.68 | 17.02% | 719.67 | 510.31 | 40.63% |
| 04/16/27 (Fri) | 165 | 614.99 | 114.62 | 18.64% | 729.61 | 500.37 | 40.69% |
| 05/21/27 (Fri) | 200 | 614.99 | 129.48 | 21.05% | 744.47 | 485.51 | 41.86% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 227 | 614.99 | 136.64 | 22.22% | 751.63 | 478.35 | 41.39% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 319 | 614.99 | 161.39 | 26.24% | 776.38 | 453.6 | 41.59% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 410 | 614.99 | 183.77 | 29.88% | 798.76 | 431.22 | 42.06% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 445 | 614.99 | 190.34 | 30.95% | 805.33 | 424.65 | 41.84% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 592 | 614.99 | 218.62 | 35.55% | 833.61 | 396.37 | 42.01% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 774 | 614.99 | 247.86 | 40.3% | 862.85 | 367.13 | 42.02% |
| 01/19/29 (Fri) | 809 | 614.99 | 252.22 | 41.01% | 867.21 | 362.77 | 41.84% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.