Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for META
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/24/26 (Fri) | 1 | 659.15 | 8.48 | 1.29% | 667.63 | 650.67 | 1.0% |
| 04/27/26 (Mon) | 4 | 659.15 | 12.98 | 1.97% | 672.13 | 646.17 | 27.39% |
| 05/01/26 (Fri) | 8 | 659.15 | 42.07 | 6.38% | 701.23 | 617.07 | 63.4% |
| 05/04/26 (Mon) | 11 | 659.15 | 43.99 | 6.67% | 703.14 | 615.16 | 56.59% |
| 05/06/26 (Wed) | 13 | 659.15 | 45.75 | 6.94% | 704.9 | 613.4 | 54.15% |
| 05/08/26 (Fri) | 15 | 659.15 | 47.0 | 7.13% | 706.15 | 612.14 | 51.59% |
| 05/15/26 (Fri) | 22 | 659.15 | 51.59 | 7.83% | 710.75 | 607.55 | 46.59% |
| 05/22/26 (Fri) | 29 | 659.15 | 55.21 | 8.38% | 714.36 | 603.94 | 43.6% |
| 05/29/26 (Fri) | 36 | 659.15 | 58.57 | 8.88% | 717.72 | 600.58 | 41.64% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 56 | 659.15 | 68.25 | 10.36% | 727.4 | 590.89 | 38.95% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 85 | 659.15 | 79.94 | 12.13% | 739.09 | 579.21 | 37.14% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 120 | 659.15 | 99.98 | 15.17% | 759.13 | 559.17 | 39.06% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 148 | 659.15 | 109.01 | 16.54% | 768.16 | 550.14 | 38.32% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 176 | 659.15 | 117.94 | 17.89% | 777.09 | 541.21 | 38.08% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 239 | 659.15 | 139.02 | 21.09% | 798.17 | 520.13 | 38.61% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 267 | 659.15 | 145.86 | 22.13% | 805.01 | 513.29 | 38.31% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 420 | 659.15 | 184.36 | 27.97% | 843.51 | 474.78 | 38.86% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 967 | 659.15 | 280.99 | 42.63% | 940.14 | 378.16 | 39.88% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.