Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for META
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/26 (Wed) | 2 | 645.88 | 12.24 | 1.9% | 658.12 | 633.64 | 37.19% |
| 03/13/26 (Fri) | 4 | 645.88 | 17.7 | 2.74% | 663.58 | 628.17 | 38.29% |
| 03/16/26 (Mon) | 7 | 645.88 | 20.0 | 3.1% | 665.87 | 625.88 | 32.54% |
| 03/18/26 (Wed) | 9 | 645.88 | 23.57 | 3.65% | 669.44 | 622.31 | 34.08% |
| 03/20/26 (Fri) | 11 | 645.88 | 26.69 | 4.13% | 672.57 | 619.19 | 34.88% |
| 03/27/26 (Fri) | 18 | 645.88 | 33.28 | 5.15% | 679.15 | 612.6 | 34.04% |
| 04/02/26 (Thu) | 24 | 645.88 | 37.78 | 5.85% | 683.66 | 608.09 | 33.45% |
| 04/10/26 (Fri) | 32 | 645.88 | 43.07 | 6.67% | 688.95 | 602.8 | 33.04% |
| 04/17/26 (Fri) | 39 | 645.88 | 47.39 | 7.34% | 693.26 | 598.49 | 32.98% |
| 04/24/26 (Fri) | 46 | 645.88 | 51.96 | 8.04% | 697.83 | 593.92 | 33.28% |
| 05/15/26 (Fri) | 67 | 645.88 | 71.85 | 11.12% | 717.72 | 574.03 | 38.2% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 101 | 645.88 | 84.92 | 13.15% | 730.79 | 560.96 | 36.84% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 130 | 645.88 | 94.35 | 14.61% | 740.23 | 551.53 | 36.02% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 165 | 645.88 | 111.41 | 17.25% | 757.29 | 534.46 | 37.76% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 193 | 645.88 | 119.04 | 18.43% | 764.92 | 526.83 | 37.4% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 221 | 645.88 | 126.48 | 19.58% | 772.36 | 519.4 | 37.14% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 284 | 645.88 | 145.33 | 22.5% | 791.2 | 500.55 | 37.72% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 312 | 645.88 | 151.45 | 23.45% | 797.32 | 494.43 | 37.51% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 465 | 645.88 | 186.53 | 28.88% | 832.41 | 459.34 | 38.26% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 830 | 645.88 | 248.71 | 38.51% | 894.59 | 397.17 | 38.52% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 1012 | 645.88 | 272.0 | 42.11% | 917.88 | 373.88 | 38.4% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.