Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for META
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09/26 (Wed) | 1 | 616.71 | 8.95 | 1.45% | 625.66 | 607.76 | 38.64% |
| 09/11/26 (Fri) | 3 | 616.71 | 15.81 | 2.56% | 632.52 | 600.9 | 40.81% |
| 09/14/26 (Mon) | 6 | 616.71 | 18.55 | 3.01% | 635.26 | 598.16 | 33.97% |
| 09/16/26 (Wed) | 8 | 616.71 | 22.4 | 3.63% | 639.11 | 594.31 | 35.68% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 10 | 616.71 | 26.37 | 4.28% | 643.08 | 590.34 | 37.59% |
| 09/21/26 (Mon) | 13 | 616.71 | 28.03 | 4.54% | 644.74 | 588.68 | 35.09% |
| 09/23/26 (Wed) | 15 | 616.71 | 30.54 | 4.95% | 647.25 | 586.17 | 35.71% |
| 09/25/26 (Fri) | 17 | 616.71 | 34.23 | 5.55% | 650.94 | 582.48 | 37.66% |
| 10/02/26 (Fri) | 24 | 616.71 | 40.48 | 6.56% | 657.19 | 576.23 | 37.49% |
| 10/09/26 (Fri) | 31 | 616.71 | 45.86 | 7.44% | 662.57 | 570.85 | 37.4% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 38 | 616.71 | 50.96 | 8.26% | 667.67 | 565.75 | 37.58% |
| 10/23/26 (Fri) | 45 | 616.71 | 56.04 | 9.09% | 672.75 | 560.67 | 37.99% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 73 | 616.71 | 80.45 | 13.05% | 697.16 | 536.26 | 42.91% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 101 | 616.71 | 90.93 | 14.74% | 707.64 | 525.78 | 41.33% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 129 | 616.71 | 100.64 | 16.32% | 717.35 | 516.07 | 40.35% |
| 02/19/27 (Fri) | 164 | 616.71 | 117.68 | 19.08% | 734.39 | 499.03 | 41.93% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 192 | 616.71 | 125.18 | 20.3% | 741.89 | 491.53 | 41.42% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 282 | 616.71 | 152.81 | 24.78% | 769.52 | 463.9 | 41.75% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 374 | 616.71 | 174.19 | 28.24% | 790.9 | 442.52 | 41.4% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 465 | 616.71 | 195.67 | 31.73% | 812.38 | 421.04 | 41.95% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 500 | 616.71 | 201.94 | 32.74% | 818.65 | 414.77 | 41.76% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 647 | 616.71 | 231.11 | 37.48% | 847.83 | 385.6 | 42.35% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 829 | 616.71 | 259.53 | 42.08% | 876.24 | 357.18 | 42.38% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.