Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for SPY
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/03/26 (Tue) | 1 | 685.99 | 6.71 | 0.98% | 692.7 | 679.28 | 13.75% |
| 03/04/26 (Wed) | 2 | 685.99 | 8.1 | 1.18% | 694.09 | 677.89 | 14.85% |
| 03/05/26 (Thu) | 3 | 685.99 | 9.25 | 1.35% | 695.24 | 676.74 | 15.46% |
| 03/06/26 (Fri) | 4 | 685.99 | 10.71 | 1.56% | 696.7 | 675.28 | 16.52% |
| 03/09/26 (Mon) | 7 | 685.99 | 11.79 | 1.72% | 697.78 | 674.2 | 15.28% |
| 03/10/26 (Tue) | 8 | 685.99 | 12.54 | 1.83% | 698.53 | 673.45 | 15.48% |
| 03/11/26 (Wed) | 9 | 685.99 | 13.7 | 2.0% | 699.69 | 672.29 | 16.16% |
| 03/12/26 (Thu) | 10 | 685.99 | 14.4 | 2.1% | 700.39 | 671.59 | 16.34% |
| 03/13/26 (Fri) | 11 | 685.99 | 14.9 | 2.17% | 700.89 | 671.09 | 16.22% |
| 03/20/26 (Fri) | 18 | 685.99 | 18.51 | 2.7% | 704.5 | 667.48 | 16.04% |
| 03/27/26 (Fri) | 25 | 685.99 | 20.73 | 3.02% | 706.72 | 665.26 | 15.91% |
| 03/31/26 (Tue) | 29 | 685.99 | 21.73 | 3.17% | 707.72 | 664.26 | 15.68% |
| 04/02/26 (Thu) | 31 | 685.99 | 22.78 | 3.32% | 708.77 | 663.21 | 15.9% |
| 04/10/26 (Fri) | 39 | 685.99 | 25.29 | 3.69% | 711.28 | 660.7 | 15.9% |
| 04/17/26 (Fri) | 46 | 685.99 | 27.44 | 4.0% | 713.43 | 658.55 | 15.96% |
| 04/30/26 (Thu) | 59 | 685.99 | 31.25 | 4.55% | 717.24 | 654.74 | 16.16% |
| 05/15/26 (Fri) | 74 | 685.99 | 35.63 | 5.19% | 721.62 | 650.36 | 16.48% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 108 | 685.99 | 43.65 | 6.36% | 729.64 | 642.34 | 16.94% |
| 06/30/26 (Tue) | 120 | 685.99 | 46.06 | 6.71% | 732.05 | 639.93 | 16.89% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 172 | 685.99 | 57.5 | 8.38% | 743.49 | 628.49 | 17.66% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 200 | 685.99 | 62.99 | 9.18% | 748.98 | 623.0 | 17.94% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 291 | 685.99 | 78.45 | 11.44% | 764.44 | 607.54 | 18.64% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 319 | 685.99 | 81.99 | 11.95% | 767.98 | 604.0 | 18.7% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 382 | 685.99 | 91.23 | 13.3% | 777.22 | 594.76 | 19.0% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 1019 | 685.99 | 157.08 | 22.9% | 843.07 | 528.91 | 20.17% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.