Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for AMD
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/24/26 (Fri) | 1 | 305.33 | 7.65 | 2.51% | 312.98 | 297.68 | 1.0% |
| 05/01/26 (Fri) | 8 | 305.33 | 18.87 | 6.18% | 324.2 | 286.46 | 61.44% |
| 05/08/26 (Fri) | 15 | 305.33 | 29.83 | 9.77% | 335.16 | 275.5 | 70.86% |
| 05/15/26 (Fri) | 22 | 305.33 | 33.83 | 11.08% | 339.16 | 271.5 | 66.45% |
| 05/22/26 (Fri) | 29 | 305.33 | 37.78 | 12.37% | 343.11 | 267.55 | 64.78% |
| 05/29/26 (Fri) | 36 | 305.33 | 40.55 | 13.28% | 345.88 | 264.78 | 62.46% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 56 | 305.33 | 49.55 | 16.23% | 354.88 | 255.77 | 60.68% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 85 | 305.33 | 59.69 | 19.55% | 365.02 | 245.64 | 59.3% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 120 | 305.33 | 72.74 | 23.82% | 378.07 | 232.59 | 61.25% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 148 | 305.33 | 78.75 | 25.79% | 384.08 | 226.58 | 59.97% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 176 | 305.33 | 85.85 | 28.12% | 391.18 | 219.48 | 59.91% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 211 | 305.33 | 94.33 | 30.89% | 399.66 | 211.0 | 60.24% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 239 | 305.33 | 100.05 | 32.77% | 405.38 | 205.28 | 60.03% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 267 | 305.33 | 104.95 | 34.37% | 410.28 | 200.38 | 59.82% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 330 | 305.33 | 116.41 | 38.13% | 421.74 | 188.92 | 59.94% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 967 | 305.33 | 191.61 | 62.76% | 496.94 | 113.72 | 60.06% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.