Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for AMD
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09/26 (Wed) | 1 | 508.41 | 11.18 | 2.2% | 519.59 | 497.23 | 57.18% |
| 09/11/26 (Fri) | 3 | 508.41 | 19.08 | 3.75% | 527.49 | 489.33 | 59.33% |
| 09/14/26 (Mon) | 6 | 508.41 | 22.14 | 4.36% | 530.55 | 486.27 | 49.44% |
| 09/16/26 (Wed) | 8 | 508.41 | 27.54 | 5.42% | 535.95 | 480.87 | 53.37% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 10 | 508.41 | 32.0 | 6.29% | 540.41 | 476.41 | 55.51% |
| 09/21/26 (Mon) | 13 | 508.41 | 33.96 | 6.68% | 542.37 | 474.45 | 51.76% |
| 09/23/26 (Wed) | 15 | 508.41 | 37.89 | 7.45% | 546.3 | 470.52 | 53.79% |
| 09/25/26 (Fri) | 17 | 508.41 | 40.74 | 8.01% | 549.15 | 467.67 | 54.34% |
| 10/02/26 (Fri) | 24 | 508.41 | 48.05 | 9.45% | 556.46 | 460.36 | 54.04% |
| 10/09/26 (Fri) | 31 | 508.41 | 54.38 | 10.7% | 562.79 | 454.03 | 53.86% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 38 | 508.41 | 60.01 | 11.8% | 568.42 | 448.4 | 53.52% |
| 10/23/26 (Fri) | 45 | 508.41 | 66.62 | 13.1% | 575.03 | 441.79 | 54.79% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 73 | 508.41 | 89.91 | 17.68% | 598.32 | 418.5 | 58.24% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 101 | 508.41 | 103.89 | 20.43% | 612.3 | 404.52 | 57.28% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 129 | 508.41 | 115.3 | 22.68% | 623.71 | 393.11 | 56.34% |
| 02/19/27 (Fri) | 164 | 508.41 | 132.66 | 26.09% | 641.07 | 375.75 | 57.65% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 192 | 508.41 | 142.33 | 28.0% | 650.74 | 366.08 | 57.29% |
| 04/16/27 (Fri) | 220 | 508.41 | 151.07 | 29.71% | 659.48 | 357.34 | 57.05% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 282 | 508.41 | 172.21 | 33.87% | 680.62 | 336.2 | 57.49% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 374 | 508.41 | 198.28 | 39.0% | 706.69 | 310.13 | 57.86% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 465 | 508.41 | 220.53 | 43.38% | 728.94 | 287.88 | 58.06% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 500 | 508.41 | 228.27 | 44.9% | 736.68 | 280.14 | 58.09% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 647 | 508.41 | 258.95 | 50.93% | 767.36 | 249.46 | 58.56% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 829 | 508.41 | 290.1 | 57.06% | 798.51 | 218.31 | 58.73% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.