Options Analytics

Expected Move

Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for AMD

Expiration Date DTE Price~ Expected Move Expected Move% Upper Bound Lower Bound Implied Volatility
04/24/26 (Fri) 1 305.33 7.65 2.51% 312.98 297.68 1.0%
05/01/26 (Fri) 8 305.33 18.87 6.18% 324.2 286.46 61.44%
05/08/26 (Fri) 15 305.33 29.83 9.77% 335.16 275.5 70.86%
05/15/26 (Fri) 22 305.33 33.83 11.08% 339.16 271.5 66.45%
05/22/26 (Fri) 29 305.33 37.78 12.37% 343.11 267.55 64.78%
05/29/26 (Fri) 36 305.33 40.55 13.28% 345.88 264.78 62.46%
06/18/26 (Thu) 56 305.33 49.55 16.23% 354.88 255.77 60.68%
07/17/26 (Fri) 85 305.33 59.69 19.55% 365.02 245.64 59.3%
08/21/26 (Fri) 120 305.33 72.74 23.82% 378.07 232.59 61.25%
09/18/26 (Fri) 148 305.33 78.75 25.79% 384.08 226.58 59.97%
10/16/26 (Fri) 176 305.33 85.85 28.12% 391.18 219.48 59.91%
11/20/26 (Fri) 211 305.33 94.33 30.89% 399.66 211.0 60.24%
12/18/26 (Fri) 239 305.33 100.05 32.77% 405.38 205.28 60.03%
01/15/27 (Fri) 267 305.33 104.95 34.37% 410.28 200.38 59.82%
03/19/27 (Fri) 330 305.33 116.41 38.13% 421.74 188.92 59.94%
12/15/28 (Fri) 967 305.33 191.61 62.76% 496.94 113.72 60.06%

Understanding Expected Move

What is the Expected Move?

The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.

How to interpret the outputs

The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.

Practical applications

  • Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
  • Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
  • Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
  • Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.