Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for AMD
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/13/26 (Fri) | 4 | 202.18 | 8.63 | 4.27% | 210.81 | 193.55 | 59.76% |
| 03/20/26 (Fri) | 11 | 202.18 | 13.58 | 6.72% | 215.76 | 188.6 | 56.95% |
| 03/27/26 (Fri) | 18 | 202.18 | 17.11 | 8.46% | 219.29 | 185.07 | 55.95% |
| 04/02/26 (Thu) | 24 | 202.18 | 19.42 | 9.61% | 221.6 | 182.76 | 55.16% |
| 04/10/26 (Fri) | 32 | 202.18 | 22.23 | 10.99% | 224.41 | 179.95 | 54.72% |
| 04/17/26 (Fri) | 39 | 202.18 | 24.33 | 12.03% | 226.51 | 177.85 | 54.31% |
| 04/24/26 (Fri) | 46 | 202.18 | 26.24 | 12.98% | 228.42 | 175.94 | 53.95% |
| 05/15/26 (Fri) | 67 | 202.18 | 33.83 | 16.73% | 236.01 | 168.35 | 57.82% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 101 | 202.18 | 40.76 | 20.16% | 242.94 | 161.42 | 56.84% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 130 | 202.18 | 45.62 | 22.57% | 247.8 | 156.56 | 56.2% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 165 | 202.18 | 52.13 | 25.78% | 254.31 | 150.05 | 57.14% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 193 | 202.18 | 55.55 | 27.47% | 257.73 | 146.63 | 56.35% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 221 | 202.18 | 58.63 | 29.0% | 260.81 | 143.55 | 55.66% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 256 | 202.18 | 63.77 | 31.54% | 265.95 | 138.41 | 56.4% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 284 | 202.18 | 66.75 | 33.01% | 268.93 | 135.43 | 56.13% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 312 | 202.18 | 69.74 | 34.5% | 271.92 | 132.44 | 56.0% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 375 | 202.18 | 76.73 | 37.95% | 278.91 | 125.45 | 56.44% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 683 | 202.18 | 103.87 | 51.38% | 306.05 | 98.31 | 57.67% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 1012 | 202.18 | 123.21 | 60.94% | 325.39 | 78.97 | 57.31% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.