Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for MSFT
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 (Wed) | 1 | 507.59 | 10.79 | 2.13% | 518.38 | 496.79 | 41.91% |
| 11/06/26 (Fri) | 3 | 507.59 | 14.34 | 2.83% | 521.93 | 493.25 | 39.47% |
| 11/09/26 (Mon) | 6 | 507.59 | 16.04 | 3.16% | 523.63 | 491.55 | 33.48% |
| 11/11/26 (Wed) | 8 | 507.59 | 18.06 | 3.56% | 525.65 | 489.53 | 33.26% |
| 11/13/26 (Fri) | 10 | 507.59 | 20.17 | 3.97% | 527.76 | 487.42 | 33.52% |
| 11/16/26 (Mon) | 13 | 507.59 | 21.02 | 4.14% | 528.61 | 486.57 | 30.98% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 17 | 507.59 | 24.63 | 4.85% | 532.22 | 482.96 | 31.92% |
| 11/27/26 (Fri) | 24 | 507.59 | 27.29 | 5.38% | 534.88 | 480.3 | 30.13% |
| 12/04/26 (Fri) | 31 | 507.59 | 30.09 | 5.93% | 537.68 | 477.5 | 29.32% |
| 12/11/26 (Fri) | 38 | 507.59 | 33.07 | 6.51% | 540.65 | 474.52 | 29.18% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 45 | 507.59 | 36.04 | 7.1% | 543.63 | 471.55 | 29.31% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 73 | 507.59 | 45.43 | 8.95% | 553.02 | 462.16 | 29.1% |
| 02/19/27 (Fri) | 108 | 507.59 | 57.78 | 11.38% | 565.37 | 449.81 | 30.56% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 136 | 507.59 | 64.94 | 12.79% | 572.53 | 442.65 | 30.7% |
| 04/16/27 (Fri) | 164 | 507.59 | 71.34 | 14.05% | 578.93 | 436.25 | 30.68% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 226 | 507.59 | 84.26 | 16.6% | 591.85 | 423.33 | 30.99% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 318 | 507.59 | 100.07 | 19.71% | 607.66 | 407.52 | 31.11% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 409 | 507.59 | 114.43 | 22.54% | 622.02 | 393.16 | 31.46% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 444 | 507.59 | 118.62 | 23.37% | 626.21 | 388.97 | 31.28% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 591 | 507.59 | 138.68 | 27.32% | 646.27 | 368.91 | 31.95% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 773 | 507.59 | 158.5 | 31.23% | 666.09 | 349.09 | 32.16% |
| 01/19/29 (Fri) | 808 | 507.59 | 162.12 | 31.94% | 669.71 | 345.47 | 32.16% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.