Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for MSFT
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/26 (Wed) | 2 | 409.0 | 6.74 | 1.65% | 415.74 | 402.26 | 32.53% |
| 03/13/26 (Fri) | 4 | 409.0 | 9.58 | 2.34% | 418.58 | 399.42 | 32.69% |
| 03/16/26 (Mon) | 7 | 409.0 | 10.84 | 2.65% | 419.84 | 398.16 | 28.04% |
| 03/18/26 (Wed) | 9 | 409.0 | 12.96 | 3.17% | 421.96 | 396.04 | 29.64% |
| 03/20/26 (Fri) | 11 | 409.0 | 14.71 | 3.6% | 423.7 | 394.3 | 30.36% |
| 03/27/26 (Fri) | 18 | 409.0 | 18.51 | 4.53% | 427.51 | 390.49 | 29.89% |
| 04/02/26 (Thu) | 24 | 409.0 | 20.97 | 5.13% | 429.97 | 388.03 | 29.34% |
| 04/10/26 (Fri) | 32 | 409.0 | 23.78 | 5.81% | 432.78 | 385.22 | 28.77% |
| 04/17/26 (Fri) | 39 | 409.0 | 26.5 | 6.48% | 435.5 | 382.5 | 29.09% |
| 04/24/26 (Fri) | 46 | 409.0 | 29.5 | 7.21% | 438.5 | 379.5 | 29.9% |
| 05/15/26 (Fri) | 67 | 409.0 | 40.55 | 9.91% | 449.55 | 368.45 | 33.95% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 101 | 409.0 | 48.02 | 11.74% | 457.02 | 360.98 | 32.84% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 130 | 409.0 | 53.38 | 13.05% | 462.38 | 355.62 | 32.16% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 165 | 409.0 | 61.84 | 15.12% | 470.84 | 347.16 | 33.15% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 193 | 409.0 | 65.85 | 16.1% | 474.85 | 343.15 | 32.72% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 221 | 409.0 | 69.93 | 17.1% | 478.93 | 339.07 | 32.44% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 256 | 409.0 | 76.05 | 18.6% | 485.05 | 332.95 | 32.86% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 284 | 409.0 | 79.28 | 19.38% | 488.28 | 329.72 | 32.57% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 312 | 409.0 | 82.62 | 20.2% | 491.62 | 326.38 | 32.34% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 375 | 409.0 | 90.4 | 22.1% | 499.4 | 318.6 | 32.42% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 465 | 409.0 | 100.22 | 24.5% | 509.22 | 308.78 | 32.4% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 648 | 409.0 | 117.72 | 28.78% | 526.73 | 291.27 | 32.51% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 683 | 409.0 | 120.96 | 29.57% | 529.96 | 288.04 | 32.46% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 830 | 409.0 | 133.3 | 32.59% | 542.3 | 275.7 | 32.76% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.