Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for MSFT
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09/26 (Wed) | 1 | 492.64 | 4.83 | 0.98% | 497.47 | 487.82 | 26.19% |
| 09/11/26 (Fri) | 3 | 492.64 | 8.8 | 1.79% | 501.44 | 483.85 | 28.42% |
| 09/14/26 (Mon) | 6 | 492.64 | 10.39 | 2.11% | 503.04 | 482.25 | 23.73% |
| 09/16/26 (Wed) | 8 | 492.64 | 12.84 | 2.61% | 505.48 | 479.81 | 25.53% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 10 | 492.64 | 14.45 | 2.93% | 507.09 | 478.19 | 25.86% |
| 09/21/26 (Mon) | 13 | 492.64 | 15.92 | 3.23% | 508.56 | 476.73 | 24.96% |
| 09/25/26 (Fri) | 17 | 492.64 | 18.53 | 3.76% | 511.17 | 474.12 | 25.41% |
| 10/02/26 (Fri) | 24 | 492.64 | 21.87 | 4.44% | 514.51 | 470.78 | 25.28% |
| 10/09/26 (Fri) | 31 | 492.64 | 25.18 | 5.11% | 517.83 | 467.46 | 25.63% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 38 | 492.64 | 27.96 | 5.68% | 520.61 | 464.68 | 25.72% |
| 10/23/26 (Fri) | 45 | 492.64 | 31.0 | 6.29% | 523.65 | 461.64 | 26.21% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 73 | 492.64 | 46.6 | 9.46% | 539.25 | 446.04 | 31.01% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 101 | 492.64 | 52.45 | 10.65% | 545.09 | 440.2 | 29.74% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 129 | 492.64 | 58.52 | 11.88% | 551.17 | 434.12 | 29.31% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 192 | 492.64 | 74.5 | 15.12% | 567.15 | 418.14 | 30.79% |
| 04/16/27 (Fri) | 220 | 492.64 | 79.69 | 16.18% | 572.33 | 412.96 | 30.69% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 282 | 492.64 | 91.69 | 18.61% | 584.34 | 400.95 | 31.34% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 374 | 492.64 | 106.06 | 21.53% | 598.7 | 386.59 | 31.53% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 465 | 492.64 | 118.98 | 24.15% | 611.62 | 373.67 | 31.88% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 500 | 492.64 | 123.25 | 25.02% | 615.89 | 369.39 | 31.82% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 647 | 492.64 | 141.61 | 28.74% | 634.25 | 351.03 | 32.42% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 829 | 492.64 | 160.44 | 32.57% | 653.08 | 332.21 | 32.63% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.