Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for MSFT
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/26 (Mon) | 0 | 416.67 | 6.35 | 1.52% | 423.02 | 410.32 | 1.0% |
| 06/10/26 (Wed) | 2 | 416.67 | 10.56 | 2.53% | 427.23 | 406.11 | 31.76% |
| 06/12/26 (Fri) | 4 | 416.67 | 12.73 | 3.05% | 429.4 | 403.94 | 32.31% |
| 06/15/26 (Mon) | 7 | 416.67 | 13.88 | 3.33% | 430.55 | 402.79 | 29.55% |
| 06/17/26 (Wed) | 9 | 416.67 | 16.55 | 3.97% | 433.22 | 400.12 | 32.18% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 10 | 416.67 | 16.81 | 4.03% | 433.48 | 399.86 | 31.3% |
| 06/26/26 (Fri) | 18 | 416.67 | 20.66 | 4.96% | 437.33 | 396.01 | 30.29% |
| 07/02/26 (Thu) | 24 | 416.67 | 22.82 | 5.48% | 439.49 | 393.85 | 29.48% |
| 07/10/26 (Fri) | 32 | 416.67 | 26.44 | 6.34% | 443.11 | 390.24 | 30.04% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 39 | 416.67 | 29.03 | 6.97% | 445.7 | 387.64 | 30.1% |
| 07/24/26 (Fri) | 46 | 416.67 | 31.92 | 7.66% | 448.59 | 384.75 | 30.67% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 74 | 416.67 | 44.69 | 10.73% | 461.36 | 371.98 | 34.34% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 102 | 416.67 | 50.94 | 12.22% | 467.61 | 365.73 | 33.49% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 130 | 416.67 | 56.59 | 13.58% | 473.26 | 360.08 | 33.15% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 165 | 416.67 | 65.58 | 15.74% | 482.25 | 351.09 | 34.28% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 193 | 416.67 | 69.51 | 16.68% | 486.18 | 347.16 | 33.72% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 221 | 416.67 | 73.61 | 17.67% | 490.28 | 343.06 | 33.33% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 284 | 416.67 | 82.88 | 19.89% | 499.55 | 333.8 | 33.24% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 374 | 416.67 | 95.22 | 22.85% | 511.89 | 321.45 | 33.38% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 466 | 416.67 | 105.76 | 25.38% | 522.43 | 310.91 | 33.45% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 557 | 416.67 | 116.41 | 27.94% | 533.08 | 300.26 | 33.71% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 592 | 416.67 | 120.06 | 28.81% | 536.73 | 296.61 | 33.71% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 739 | 416.67 | 133.32 | 32.0% | 549.99 | 283.35 | 33.82% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 921 | 416.67 | 147.79 | 35.47% | 564.46 | 268.88 | 34.01% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.