Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for MSFT
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/27/26 (Mon) | 2 | 381.7 | 5.5 | 1.44% | 387.2 | 376.2 | 22.59% |
| 07/31/26 (Fri) | 6 | 381.7 | 23.38 | 6.12% | 405.07 | 358.32 | 65.43% |
| 08/03/26 (Mon) | 9 | 381.7 | 24.12 | 6.32% | 405.82 | 357.58 | 56.2% |
| 08/05/26 (Wed) | 11 | 381.7 | 25.18 | 6.6% | 406.88 | 356.52 | 53.52% |
| 08/07/26 (Fri) | 13 | 381.7 | 26.24 | 6.88% | 407.94 | 355.46 | 51.59% |
| 08/14/26 (Fri) | 20 | 381.7 | 28.9 | 7.57% | 410.6 | 352.8 | 46.46% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 27 | 381.7 | 30.96 | 8.11% | 412.66 | 350.74 | 42.91% |
| 08/28/26 (Fri) | 34 | 381.7 | 33.23 | 8.71% | 414.94 | 348.46 | 41.45% |
| 09/04/26 (Fri) | 41 | 381.7 | 35.27 | 9.24% | 416.97 | 346.43 | 40.17% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 55 | 381.7 | 38.97 | 10.21% | 420.67 | 342.73 | 38.44% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 83 | 381.7 | 45.73 | 11.98% | 427.43 | 335.97 | 36.82% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 118 | 381.7 | 55.76 | 14.61% | 437.46 | 325.94 | 37.8% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 146 | 381.7 | 60.37 | 15.82% | 442.07 | 321.33 | 36.91% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 174 | 381.7 | 64.85 | 16.99% | 446.55 | 316.85 | 36.29% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 237 | 381.7 | 75.46 | 19.77% | 457.16 | 306.24 | 36.4% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 327 | 381.7 | 88.25 | 23.12% | 469.95 | 293.45 | 36.38% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 419 | 381.7 | 100.07 | 26.22% | 481.77 | 281.63 | 36.61% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 510 | 381.7 | 110.35 | 28.91% | 492.05 | 271.35 | 36.79% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 545 | 381.7 | 113.75 | 29.8% | 495.45 | 267.95 | 36.67% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 692 | 381.7 | 128.07 | 33.55% | 509.77 | 253.63 | 36.99% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 874 | 381.7 | 142.78 | 37.41% | 524.48 | 238.92 | 37.08% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.