Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for MSFT
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/24/26 (Fri) | 1 | 415.75 | 5.51 | 1.32% | 421.26 | 410.24 | 1.0% |
| 04/27/26 (Mon) | 4 | 415.75 | 7.95 | 1.91% | 423.7 | 407.8 | 26.84% |
| 05/01/26 (Fri) | 8 | 415.75 | 23.76 | 5.71% | 439.51 | 391.99 | 56.78% |
| 05/04/26 (Mon) | 11 | 415.75 | 24.69 | 5.94% | 440.44 | 391.06 | 50.14% |
| 05/06/26 (Wed) | 13 | 415.75 | 25.46 | 6.12% | 441.21 | 390.29 | 47.8% |
| 05/08/26 (Fri) | 15 | 415.75 | 26.69 | 6.42% | 442.44 | 389.06 | 46.65% |
| 05/15/26 (Fri) | 22 | 415.75 | 28.81 | 6.93% | 444.56 | 386.94 | 41.49% |
| 05/22/26 (Fri) | 29 | 415.75 | 30.9 | 7.43% | 446.65 | 384.85 | 38.69% |
| 05/29/26 (Fri) | 36 | 415.75 | 32.62 | 7.85% | 448.37 | 383.13 | 36.83% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 56 | 415.75 | 38.61 | 9.29% | 454.36 | 377.14 | 34.88% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 85 | 415.75 | 45.35 | 10.91% | 461.1 | 370.4 | 33.33% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 120 | 415.75 | 55.25 | 13.29% | 471.0 | 360.5 | 34.03% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 148 | 415.75 | 59.33 | 14.27% | 475.08 | 356.42 | 32.99% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 176 | 415.75 | 64.01 | 15.4% | 479.75 | 351.75 | 32.77% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 211 | 415.75 | 70.32 | 16.91% | 486.07 | 345.43 | 32.98% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 239 | 415.75 | 73.82 | 17.76% | 489.57 | 341.93 | 32.55% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 267 | 415.75 | 76.33 | 18.36% | 492.08 | 339.42 | 31.82% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 330 | 415.75 | 85.4 | 20.54% | 501.15 | 330.35 | 32.01% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 420 | 415.75 | 96.22 | 23.14% | 511.97 | 319.53 | 32.08% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 603 | 415.75 | 115.73 | 27.84% | 531.48 | 300.02 | 32.45% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 638 | 415.75 | 119.17 | 28.66% | 534.92 | 296.58 | 32.44% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 785 | 415.75 | 132.26 | 31.81% | 548.01 | 283.49 | 32.73% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.