Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for NVDA
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/17/26 (Fri) | 1 | 198.35 | 2.39 | 1.21% | 200.74 | 195.96 | 1.0% |
| 04/20/26 (Mon) | 4 | 198.35 | 3.75 | 1.89% | 202.1 | 194.6 | 26.32% |
| 04/22/26 (Wed) | 6 | 198.35 | 5.2 | 2.62% | 203.55 | 193.15 | 29.91% |
| 04/24/26 (Fri) | 8 | 198.35 | 6.4 | 3.22% | 204.75 | 191.95 | 31.91% |
| 04/27/26 (Mon) | 11 | 198.35 | 7.08 | 3.57% | 205.43 | 191.27 | 29.89% |
| 04/29/26 (Wed) | 13 | 198.35 | 8.12 | 4.09% | 206.47 | 190.23 | 31.54% |
| 05/01/26 (Fri) | 15 | 198.35 | 9.18 | 4.63% | 207.53 | 189.17 | 33.53% |
| 05/08/26 (Fri) | 22 | 198.35 | 11.09 | 5.59% | 209.44 | 187.26 | 33.31% |
| 05/15/26 (Fri) | 29 | 198.35 | 12.79 | 6.45% | 211.14 | 185.56 | 33.51% |
| 05/22/26 (Fri) | 36 | 198.35 | 17.0 | 8.57% | 215.35 | 181.35 | 40.02% |
| 05/29/26 (Fri) | 43 | 198.35 | 18.11 | 9.13% | 216.45 | 180.25 | 39.03% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 63 | 198.35 | 21.72 | 10.95% | 220.07 | 176.63 | 38.59% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 92 | 198.35 | 25.86 | 13.04% | 224.21 | 172.49 | 38.16% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 127 | 198.35 | 31.07 | 15.66% | 229.42 | 167.28 | 39.03% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 155 | 198.35 | 35.32 | 17.81% | 233.67 | 163.03 | 40.23% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 183 | 198.35 | 38.55 | 19.43% | 236.9 | 159.8 | 40.45% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 218 | 198.35 | 43.18 | 21.77% | 241.53 | 155.17 | 41.61% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 246 | 198.35 | 45.75 | 23.07% | 244.1 | 152.6 | 41.55% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 274 | 198.35 | 48.32 | 24.36% | 246.67 | 150.03 | 41.52% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 337 | 198.35 | 54.44 | 27.45% | 252.79 | 143.91 | 42.35% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 427 | 198.35 | 61.99 | 31.25% | 260.34 | 136.36 | 42.96% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 519 | 198.35 | 68.81 | 34.69% | 267.16 | 129.54 | 43.44% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 610 | 198.35 | 75.1 | 37.86% | 273.45 | 123.25 | 43.91% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 645 | 198.35 | 77.14 | 38.89% | 275.49 | 121.21 | 43.91% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 974 | 198.35 | 94.71 | 47.75% | 293.06 | 103.64 | 44.55% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.