Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for NVDA
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/31/26 (Mon) | 1 | 217.69 | 3.6 | 1.66% | 221.29 | 214.09 | 26.76% |
| 09/02/26 (Wed) | 3 | 217.69 | 5.67 | 2.61% | 223.36 | 212.02 | 32.7% |
| 09/04/26 (Fri) | 5 | 217.69 | 6.99 | 3.21% | 224.68 | 210.7 | 33.99% |
| 09/09/26 (Wed) | 10 | 217.69 | 8.33 | 3.83% | 226.02 | 209.36 | 31.06% |
| 09/11/26 (Fri) | 12 | 217.69 | 9.31 | 4.28% | 227.0 | 208.38 | 32.02% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 19 | 217.69 | 11.45 | 5.26% | 229.14 | 206.24 | 32.28% |
| 09/25/26 (Fri) | 26 | 217.69 | 13.45 | 6.18% | 231.14 | 204.24 | 32.42% |
| 10/02/26 (Fri) | 33 | 217.69 | 15.13 | 6.95% | 232.82 | 202.56 | 32.7% |
| 10/09/26 (Fri) | 40 | 217.69 | 16.77 | 7.7% | 234.46 | 200.92 | 33.13% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 47 | 217.69 | 18.38 | 8.44% | 236.07 | 199.31 | 33.66% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 82 | 217.69 | 26.58 | 12.21% | 244.27 | 191.11 | 37.28% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 110 | 217.69 | 30.58 | 14.05% | 248.27 | 187.11 | 37.45% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 138 | 217.69 | 34.28 | 15.75% | 251.97 | 183.41 | 37.39% |
| 02/19/27 (Fri) | 173 | 217.69 | 38.44 | 17.66% | 256.13 | 179.25 | 37.52% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 201 | 217.69 | 42.5 | 19.52% | 260.19 | 175.19 | 38.65% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 291 | 217.69 | 51.68 | 23.74% | 269.37 | 166.01 | 39.26% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 383 | 217.69 | 59.56 | 27.36% | 277.25 | 158.13 | 39.6% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 474 | 217.69 | 66.79 | 30.68% | 284.48 | 150.9 | 40.1% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 509 | 217.69 | 69.04 | 31.72% | 286.73 | 148.65 | 40.02% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 656 | 217.69 | 78.35 | 35.99% | 296.04 | 139.34 | 40.36% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 838 | 217.69 | 87.95 | 40.4% | 305.64 | 129.74 | 40.48% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.