Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for NVDA
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 1 | 212.46 | 4.6 | 2.17% | 217.06 | 207.86 | 42.49% |
| 07/20/26 (Mon) | 4 | 212.46 | 5.95 | 2.8% | 218.41 | 206.51 | 35.27% |
| 07/22/26 (Wed) | 6 | 212.46 | 7.63 | 3.59% | 220.09 | 204.83 | 37.96% |
| 07/24/26 (Fri) | 8 | 212.46 | 9.05 | 4.26% | 221.51 | 203.41 | 39.86% |
| 07/27/26 (Mon) | 11 | 212.46 | 10.01 | 4.71% | 222.47 | 202.45 | 38.26% |
| 07/29/26 (Wed) | 13 | 212.46 | 11.05 | 5.2% | 223.51 | 201.41 | 39.12% |
| 07/31/26 (Fri) | 15 | 212.46 | 12.24 | 5.76% | 224.7 | 200.22 | 40.52% |
| 08/07/26 (Fri) | 22 | 212.46 | 14.6 | 6.87% | 227.06 | 197.86 | 40.41% |
| 08/14/26 (Fri) | 29 | 212.46 | 16.51 | 7.77% | 228.97 | 195.95 | 40.01% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 36 | 212.46 | 18.27 | 8.6% | 230.74 | 194.19 | 40.03% |
| 08/28/26 (Fri) | 43 | 212.46 | 22.31 | 10.5% | 234.77 | 190.15 | 44.84% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 64 | 212.46 | 26.16 | 12.31% | 238.62 | 186.3 | 43.3% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 92 | 212.46 | 30.88 | 14.53% | 243.34 | 181.58 | 42.73% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 127 | 212.46 | 37.27 | 17.54% | 249.73 | 175.19 | 44.02% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 155 | 212.46 | 40.55 | 19.08% | 253.0 | 171.92 | 43.38% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 183 | 212.46 | 43.75 | 20.59% | 256.21 | 168.71 | 43.2% |
| 02/19/27 (Fri) | 218 | 212.46 | 47.28 | 22.25% | 259.74 | 165.18 | 42.86% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 246 | 212.46 | 50.7 | 23.86% | 263.16 | 161.76 | 43.44% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 336 | 212.46 | 59.05 | 27.8% | 271.51 | 153.41 | 43.49% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 428 | 212.46 | 66.32 | 31.22% | 278.78 | 146.14 | 43.51% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 519 | 212.46 | 72.97 | 34.35% | 285.43 | 139.49 | 43.71% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 554 | 212.46 | 75.31 | 35.45% | 287.77 | 137.15 | 43.67% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 701 | 212.46 | 84.28 | 39.67% | 296.74 | 128.18 | 43.86% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 883 | 212.46 | 94.03 | 44.26% | 306.49 | 118.43 | 44.07% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.