Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for NVDA
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/14/26 (Wed) | 0 | 227.49 | 3.23 | 1.42% | 230.72 | 224.26 | 39.06% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 2 | 227.49 | 5.27 | 2.32% | 232.76 | 222.22 | 37.3% |
| 10/19/26 (Mon) | 5 | 227.49 | 5.99 | 2.63% | 233.48 | 221.5 | 30.09% |
| 10/21/26 (Wed) | 7 | 227.49 | 7.27 | 3.19% | 234.76 | 220.22 | 31.63% |
| 10/23/26 (Fri) | 9 | 227.49 | 8.22 | 3.61% | 235.71 | 219.27 | 31.96% |
| 10/26/26 (Mon) | 12 | 227.49 | 8.8 | 3.87% | 236.29 | 218.69 | 30.07% |
| 10/28/26 (Wed) | 14 | 227.49 | 10.14 | 4.46% | 237.63 | 217.35 | 31.69% |
| 10/30/26 (Fri) | 16 | 227.49 | 10.71 | 4.71% | 238.2 | 216.78 | 31.94% |
| 11/06/26 (Fri) | 23 | 227.49 | 12.92 | 5.68% | 240.41 | 214.57 | 32.1% |
| 11/13/26 (Fri) | 30 | 227.49 | 14.41 | 6.33% | 241.9 | 213.08 | 31.63% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 37 | 227.49 | 18.3 | 8.04% | 245.79 | 209.19 | 36.48% |
| 11/27/26 (Fri) | 44 | 227.49 | 19.32 | 8.49% | 246.81 | 208.17 | 35.43% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 65 | 227.49 | 23.04 | 10.13% | 250.53 | 204.46 | 35.05% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 93 | 227.49 | 27.31 | 12.0% | 254.8 | 200.18 | 34.72% |
| 02/19/27 (Fri) | 128 | 227.49 | 31.85 | 14.0% | 259.34 | 195.64 | 34.6% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 156 | 227.49 | 36.59 | 16.09% | 264.08 | 190.9 | 36.23% |
| 04/16/27 (Fri) | 184 | 227.49 | 39.57 | 17.39% | 267.06 | 187.92 | 36.07% |
| 05/21/27 (Fri) | 219 | 227.49 | 43.52 | 19.13% | 271.01 | 183.97 | 36.37% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 246 | 227.49 | 46.77 | 20.56% | 274.26 | 180.72 | 37.0% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 338 | 227.49 | 55.42 | 24.36% | 282.91 | 172.07 | 37.59% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 429 | 227.49 | 62.96 | 27.68% | 290.45 | 164.53 | 38.02% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 464 | 227.49 | 65.41 | 28.75% | 292.9 | 162.08 | 37.98% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 611 | 227.49 | 75.44 | 33.16% | 302.93 | 152.05 | 38.48% |
| 09/15/28 (Fri) | 702 | 227.49 | 80.71 | 35.48% | 308.2 | 146.78 | 38.58% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 793 | 227.49 | 85.98 | 37.79% | 313.47 | 141.51 | 38.83% |
| 01/19/29 (Fri) | 828 | 227.49 | 87.85 | 38.62% | 315.34 | 139.64 | 38.87% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.