Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for TSLA
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/27/26 (Mon) | 2 | 313.03 | 7.71 | 2.46% | 320.74 | 305.32 | 40.01% |
| 07/29/26 (Wed) | 4 | 313.03 | 12.35 | 3.94% | 325.38 | 300.68 | 49.57% |
| 07/31/26 (Fri) | 6 | 313.03 | 15.17 | 4.85% | 328.2 | 297.86 | 51.39% |
| 08/03/26 (Mon) | 9 | 313.03 | 16.57 | 5.3% | 329.6 | 296.45 | 47.23% |
| 08/05/26 (Wed) | 11 | 313.03 | 19.06 | 6.09% | 332.09 | 293.97 | 49.52% |
| 08/07/26 (Fri) | 13 | 313.03 | 21.04 | 6.72% | 334.07 | 291.99 | 50.2% |
| 08/14/26 (Fri) | 20 | 313.03 | 24.99 | 7.98% | 338.02 | 288.04 | 48.84% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 27 | 313.03 | 28.37 | 9.06% | 341.4 | 284.66 | 48.05% |
| 08/28/26 (Fri) | 34 | 313.03 | 31.47 | 10.05% | 344.5 | 281.56 | 47.7% |
| 09/04/26 (Fri) | 41 | 313.03 | 34.38 | 10.98% | 347.41 | 278.65 | 47.61% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 55 | 313.03 | 39.1 | 12.49% | 352.13 | 273.93 | 46.89% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 83 | 313.03 | 47.92 | 15.31% | 360.95 | 265.11 | 46.99% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 118 | 313.03 | 58.99 | 18.84% | 372.02 | 254.04 | 48.7% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 146 | 313.03 | 64.98 | 20.76% | 378.01 | 248.05 | 48.24% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 174 | 313.03 | 70.25 | 22.44% | 383.28 | 242.78 | 48.12% |
| 02/19/27 (Fri) | 209 | 313.03 | 77.99 | 24.91% | 391.02 | 235.04 | 48.61% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 237 | 313.03 | 82.96 | 26.5% | 395.99 | 230.07 | 48.62% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 327 | 313.03 | 97.79 | 31.24% | 410.82 | 215.24 | 49.33% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 419 | 313.03 | 110.92 | 35.44% | 423.95 | 202.1 | 49.67% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 510 | 313.03 | 123.12 | 39.33% | 436.15 | 189.91 | 50.24% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 545 | 313.03 | 127.14 | 40.62% | 440.17 | 185.89 | 50.26% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 692 | 313.03 | 143.54 | 45.86% | 456.57 | 169.49 | 50.78% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 874 | 313.03 | 160.46 | 51.26% | 473.49 | 152.57 | 51.04% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.