Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for TSLA
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/26 (Mon) | 0 | 391.0 | 9.86 | 2.52% | 400.86 | 381.14 | 40.76% |
| 06/10/26 (Wed) | 2 | 391.0 | 15.43 | 3.95% | 406.43 | 375.57 | 49.2% |
| 06/12/26 (Fri) | 4 | 391.0 | 20.12 | 5.15% | 411.12 | 370.88 | 54.54% |
| 06/15/26 (Mon) | 7 | 391.0 | 22.89 | 5.85% | 413.89 | 368.11 | 52.17% |
| 06/17/26 (Wed) | 9 | 391.0 | 25.14 | 6.43% | 416.14 | 365.86 | 52.27% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 10 | 391.0 | 26.5 | 6.78% | 417.5 | 364.5 | 52.8% |
| 06/26/26 (Fri) | 18 | 391.0 | 31.28 | 8.0% | 422.28 | 359.72 | 49.12% |
| 07/02/26 (Thu) | 24 | 391.0 | 35.66 | 9.12% | 426.66 | 355.34 | 49.38% |
| 07/10/26 (Fri) | 32 | 391.0 | 39.33 | 10.06% | 430.33 | 351.67 | 47.85% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 39 | 391.0 | 43.2 | 11.05% | 434.2 | 347.8 | 47.99% |
| 07/24/26 (Fri) | 46 | 391.0 | 48.09 | 12.3% | 439.09 | 342.91 | 49.5% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 74 | 391.0 | 60.52 | 15.48% | 451.52 | 330.48 | 49.78% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 102 | 391.0 | 69.81 | 17.85% | 460.81 | 321.19 | 49.23% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 130 | 391.0 | 79.03 | 20.21% | 470.03 | 311.97 | 49.57% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 165 | 391.0 | 90.21 | 23.07% | 481.21 | 300.79 | 50.44% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 193 | 391.0 | 96.88 | 24.78% | 487.88 | 294.12 | 50.21% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 221 | 391.0 | 103.1 | 26.37% | 494.11 | 287.89 | 50.06% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 284 | 391.0 | 117.49 | 30.05% | 508.49 | 273.51 | 50.56% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 374 | 391.0 | 136.04 | 34.79% | 527.04 | 254.96 | 51.32% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 466 | 391.0 | 151.83 | 38.83% | 542.83 | 239.17 | 51.57% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 557 | 391.0 | 166.49 | 42.58% | 557.49 | 224.51 | 52.02% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 592 | 391.0 | 171.28 | 43.8% | 562.27 | 219.72 | 52.02% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 739 | 391.0 | 190.97 | 48.84% | 581.97 | 200.03 | 52.36% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 921 | 391.0 | 211.56 | 54.11% | 602.56 | 179.44 | 52.52% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.