Options Analytics

Expected Move

Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for TSLA

Expiration Date DTE Price~ Expected Move Expected Move% Upper Bound Lower Bound Implied Volatility
11/02/26 (Mon) 0 399.81 8.05 2.01% 407.86 391.76 1.0%
11/04/26 (Wed) 2 399.81 14.94 3.74% 414.75 384.87 46.8%
11/06/26 (Fri) 4 399.81 17.74 4.44% 417.55 382.07 46.95%
11/09/26 (Mon) 7 399.81 19.17 4.79% 418.98 380.64 42.58%
11/11/26 (Wed) 9 399.81 21.65 5.42% 421.46 378.16 43.89%
11/13/26 (Fri) 11 399.81 23.61 5.9% 423.42 376.2 44.27%
11/20/26 (Fri) 18 399.81 28.2 7.05% 428.01 371.61 43.21%
11/27/26 (Fri) 25 399.81 31.11 7.78% 430.92 368.7 41.38%
12/04/26 (Fri) 32 399.81 34.89 8.73% 434.7 364.92 41.44%
12/11/26 (Fri) 39 399.81 38.27 9.57% 438.08 361.54 41.5%
12/18/26 (Fri) 46 399.81 41.42 10.36% 441.23 358.39 41.59%
01/15/27 (Fri) 74 399.81 51.79 12.95% 451.6 348.02 41.49%
02/19/27 (Fri) 109 399.81 65.34 16.34% 465.15 334.47 43.47%
03/19/27 (Fri) 137 399.81 73.18 18.3% 473.0 326.62 43.64%
04/16/27 (Fri) 165 399.81 80.28 20.08% 480.09 319.53 43.74%
06/17/27 (Thu) 227 399.81 95.77 23.95% 495.58 304.04 44.71%
09/17/27 (Fri) 319 399.81 113.81 28.47% 513.62 286.0 45.07%
12/17/27 (Fri) 410 399.81 129.41 32.37% 529.22 270.4 45.42%
01/21/28 (Fri) 445 399.81 134.51 33.64% 534.32 265.3 45.39%
06/16/28 (Fri) 592 399.81 155.42 38.87% 555.23 244.39 45.85%
12/15/28 (Fri) 774 399.81 176.29 44.09% 576.1 223.52 45.81%
01/19/29 (Fri) 809 399.81 180.62 45.18% 580.43 219.19 45.99%

Understanding Expected Move

What is the Expected Move?

The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.

How to interpret the outputs

The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.

Practical applications

  • Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
  • Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
  • Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
  • Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.