Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for TSLA
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09/26 (Wed) | 1 | 365.96 | 6.4 | 1.75% | 372.36 | 359.56 | 46.2% |
| 09/11/26 (Fri) | 3 | 365.96 | 10.88 | 2.97% | 376.84 | 355.08 | 47.12% |
| 09/14/26 (Mon) | 6 | 365.96 | 12.64 | 3.45% | 378.6 | 353.32 | 39.3% |
| 09/16/26 (Wed) | 8 | 365.96 | 15.45 | 4.22% | 381.41 | 350.51 | 41.64% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 10 | 365.96 | 17.74 | 4.85% | 383.7 | 348.22 | 42.8% |
| 09/21/26 (Mon) | 13 | 365.96 | 18.85 | 5.15% | 384.81 | 347.11 | 39.99% |
| 09/23/26 (Wed) | 15 | 365.96 | 20.61 | 5.63% | 386.57 | 345.35 | 40.73% |
| 09/25/26 (Fri) | 17 | 365.96 | 22.27 | 6.09% | 388.23 | 343.69 | 41.32% |
| 10/02/26 (Fri) | 24 | 365.96 | 26.58 | 7.26% | 392.54 | 339.38 | 41.53% |
| 10/09/26 (Fri) | 31 | 365.96 | 30.05 | 8.21% | 396.01 | 335.91 | 41.38% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 38 | 365.96 | 33.36 | 9.12% | 399.32 | 332.6 | 41.51% |
| 10/23/26 (Fri) | 45 | 365.96 | 38.91 | 10.63% | 404.87 | 327.05 | 44.53% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 73 | 365.96 | 49.94 | 13.65% | 415.9 | 316.02 | 44.94% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 101 | 365.96 | 57.91 | 15.82% | 423.87 | 308.05 | 44.31% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 129 | 365.96 | 65.32 | 17.85% | 431.28 | 300.64 | 44.08% |
| 02/19/27 (Fri) | 164 | 365.96 | 75.08 | 20.51% | 441.04 | 290.88 | 45.21% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 192 | 365.96 | 81.37 | 22.23% | 447.33 | 284.59 | 45.35% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 282 | 365.96 | 101.17 | 27.65% | 467.13 | 264.79 | 46.41% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 374 | 365.96 | 117.83 | 32.2% | 483.79 | 248.13 | 47.2% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 465 | 365.96 | 131.94 | 36.05% | 497.9 | 234.02 | 47.6% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 500 | 365.96 | 136.87 | 37.4% | 502.83 | 229.09 | 47.7% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 647 | 365.96 | 156.36 | 42.73% | 522.32 | 209.6 | 48.26% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 829 | 365.96 | 175.93 | 48.07% | 541.89 | 190.03 | 48.38% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.