Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for TSLA
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/24/26 (Fri) | 1 | 373.72 | 6.46 | 1.73% | 380.18 | 367.26 | 1.0% |
| 04/27/26 (Mon) | 4 | 373.72 | 10.03 | 2.68% | 383.75 | 363.69 | 37.58% |
| 04/29/26 (Wed) | 6 | 373.72 | 13.58 | 3.63% | 387.3 | 360.14 | 41.58% |
| 05/01/26 (Fri) | 8 | 373.72 | 16.43 | 4.4% | 390.15 | 357.29 | 43.73% |
| 05/04/26 (Mon) | 11 | 373.72 | 17.87 | 4.78% | 391.59 | 355.85 | 40.47% |
| 05/06/26 (Wed) | 13 | 373.72 | 19.85 | 5.31% | 393.57 | 353.87 | 41.38% |
| 05/08/26 (Fri) | 15 | 373.72 | 21.7 | 5.81% | 395.42 | 352.02 | 42.12% |
| 05/15/26 (Fri) | 22 | 373.72 | 26.18 | 7.01% | 399.9 | 347.54 | 41.89% |
| 05/22/26 (Fri) | 29 | 373.72 | 29.79 | 7.97% | 403.51 | 343.93 | 41.59% |
| 05/29/26 (Fri) | 36 | 373.72 | 32.64 | 8.73% | 406.36 | 341.08 | 40.85% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 56 | 373.72 | 41.46 | 11.09% | 415.18 | 332.26 | 41.62% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 85 | 373.72 | 51.7 | 13.83% | 425.42 | 322.02 | 42.35% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 120 | 373.72 | 64.64 | 17.3% | 438.36 | 309.08 | 44.66% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 148 | 373.72 | 72.21 | 19.32% | 445.93 | 301.51 | 44.8% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 176 | 373.72 | 79.81 | 21.36% | 453.54 | 293.91 | 45.47% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 239 | 373.72 | 94.9 | 25.39% | 468.62 | 278.82 | 46.52% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 267 | 373.72 | 100.19 | 26.81% | 473.91 | 273.53 | 46.7% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 330 | 373.72 | 113.09 | 30.26% | 486.81 | 260.63 | 47.6% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 420 | 373.72 | 129.97 | 34.78% | 503.69 | 243.76 | 48.7% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 603 | 373.72 | 157.65 | 42.18% | 531.37 | 216.07 | 49.78% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 638 | 373.72 | 161.9 | 43.32% | 535.62 | 211.82 | 49.79% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 785 | 373.72 | 179.18 | 47.94% | 552.9 | 194.54 | 50.07% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 967 | 373.72 | 196.82 | 52.66% | 570.54 | 176.9 | 50.03% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.