Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for NVDA
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/26 (Wed) | 2 | 177.19 | 6.74 | 3.8% | 183.93 | 170.45 | 46.75% |
| 03/06/26 (Fri) | 4 | 177.19 | 8.07 | 4.56% | 185.26 | 169.12 | 48.57% |
| 03/09/26 (Mon) | 7 | 177.19 | 9.12 | 5.14% | 186.31 | 168.07 | 45.36% |
| 03/11/26 (Wed) | 9 | 177.19 | 10.16 | 5.73% | 187.35 | 167.03 | 46.27% |
| 03/13/26 (Fri) | 11 | 177.19 | 10.9 | 6.15% | 188.09 | 166.29 | 46.21% |
| 03/20/26 (Fri) | 18 | 177.19 | 13.98 | 7.89% | 191.17 | 163.21 | 48.41% |
| 03/27/26 (Fri) | 25 | 177.19 | 15.87 | 8.96% | 193.06 | 161.32 | 47.61% |
| 04/02/26 (Thu) | 31 | 177.19 | 17.15 | 9.68% | 194.34 | 160.04 | 46.62% |
| 04/10/26 (Fri) | 39 | 177.19 | 18.62 | 10.51% | 195.81 | 158.57 | 45.68% |
| 04/17/26 (Fri) | 46 | 177.19 | 20.06 | 11.32% | 197.25 | 157.13 | 45.53% |
| 05/15/26 (Fri) | 74 | 177.19 | 24.99 | 14.1% | 202.18 | 152.2 | 45.37% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 108 | 177.19 | 31.05 | 17.52% | 208.24 | 146.14 | 46.92% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 137 | 177.19 | 34.38 | 19.4% | 211.57 | 142.81 | 46.48% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 172 | 177.19 | 38.4 | 21.67% | 215.59 | 138.79 | 46.49% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 200 | 177.19 | 41.69 | 23.53% | 218.88 | 135.5 | 46.94% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 263 | 177.19 | 47.85 | 27.01% | 225.04 | 129.34 | 47.17% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 319 | 177.19 | 52.47 | 29.61% | 229.66 | 124.72 | 47.14% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 382 | 177.19 | 57.78 | 32.61% | 234.97 | 119.41 | 47.63% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 472 | 177.19 | 64.41 | 36.35% | 241.6 | 112.78 | 47.94% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 564 | 177.19 | 70.38 | 39.72% | 247.57 | 106.81 | 48.16% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 655 | 177.19 | 76.01 | 42.9% | 253.2 | 101.18 | 48.5% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 690 | 177.19 | 77.95 | 43.99% | 255.13 | 99.24 | 48.49% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 1019 | 177.19 | 93.93 | 53.01% | 271.12 | 83.26 | 48.89% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.