Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for NVDA
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/01/26 (Mon) | 0 | 211.14 | 4.56 | 2.16% | 215.7 | 206.58 | 1.0% |
| 06/03/26 (Wed) | 2 | 211.14 | 6.71 | 3.18% | 217.85 | 204.42 | 41.59% |
| 06/05/26 (Fri) | 4 | 211.14 | 8.18 | 3.87% | 219.32 | 202.96 | 42.6% |
| 06/08/26 (Mon) | 7 | 211.14 | 9.43 | 4.47% | 220.57 | 201.7 | 38.29% |
| 06/10/26 (Wed) | 9 | 211.14 | 10.84 | 5.13% | 221.98 | 200.3 | 40.55% |
| 06/12/26 (Fri) | 11 | 211.14 | 11.64 | 5.52% | 222.78 | 199.49 | 41.21% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 17 | 211.14 | 13.96 | 6.61% | 225.1 | 197.18 | 40.76% |
| 06/26/26 (Fri) | 25 | 211.14 | 15.9 | 7.53% | 227.03 | 195.24 | 40.07% |
| 07/02/26 (Thu) | 31 | 211.14 | 17.43 | 8.25% | 228.56 | 193.71 | 39.67% |
| 07/10/26 (Fri) | 39 | 211.14 | 19.44 | 9.21% | 230.58 | 191.7 | 39.72% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 46 | 211.14 | 21.46 | 10.17% | 232.6 | 189.68 | 40.69% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 81 | 211.14 | 28.92 | 13.7% | 240.06 | 182.22 | 41.66% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 109 | 211.14 | 34.85 | 16.51% | 245.99 | 176.29 | 43.88% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 137 | 211.14 | 38.78 | 18.37% | 249.92 | 172.36 | 43.89% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 172 | 211.14 | 44.16 | 20.91% | 255.3 | 166.98 | 44.96% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 200 | 211.14 | 47.79 | 22.63% | 258.93 | 163.35 | 44.7% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 228 | 211.14 | 50.06 | 23.71% | 261.2 | 161.07 | 44.64% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 291 | 211.14 | 57.35 | 27.16% | 268.49 | 153.79 | 44.95% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 381 | 211.14 | 65.17 | 30.87% | 276.31 | 145.97 | 45.42% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 473 | 211.14 | 73.19 | 34.66% | 284.32 | 137.95 | 45.58% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 564 | 211.14 | 79.39 | 37.6% | 290.53 | 131.75 | 45.75% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 599 | 211.14 | 81.64 | 38.67% | 292.78 | 129.5 | 45.6% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 746 | 211.14 | 90.72 | 42.96% | 301.86 | 120.42 | 45.5% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 928 | 211.14 | 99.24 | 47.0% | 310.38 | 111.9 | 45.82% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.