Expected Move
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/21/25 (Fri) | 7 | 190.09 | 12.43 | 6.54% | 202.52 | 177.66 | 69.45% |
| 11/28/25 (Fri) | 14 | 190.09 | 14.3 | 7.52% | 204.39 | 175.79 | 56.78% |
| 12/05/25 (Fri) | 21 | 190.09 | 16.28 | 8.56% | 206.37 | 173.81 | 52.56% |
| 12/12/25 (Fri) | 28 | 190.09 | 18.13 | 9.54% | 208.22 | 171.96 | 50.7% |
| 12/19/25 (Fri) | 35 | 190.09 | 19.7 | 10.36% | 209.79 | 170.39 | 49.33% |
| 12/26/25 (Fri) | 42 | 190.09 | 20.82 | 10.96% | 210.91 | 169.27 | 47.52% |
| 01/02/26 (Fri) | 49 | 190.09 | 22.01 | 11.58% | 212.1 | 168.08 | 46.54% |
| 01/16/26 (Fri) | 63 | 190.09 | 24.76 | 13.02% | 214.85 | 165.33 | 46.2% |
| 02/20/26 (Fri) | 98 | 190.09 | 30.35 | 15.96% | 220.44 | 159.75 | 45.32% |
| 03/20/26 (Fri) | 126 | 190.09 | 35.64 | 18.75% | 225.73 | 154.45 | 47.07% |
| 04/17/26 (Fri) | 154 | 190.09 | 38.74 | 20.38% | 228.83 | 151.35 | 46.29% |
| 05/15/26 (Fri) | 182 | 190.09 | 41.82 | 22.0% | 231.91 | 148.27 | 46.03% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 216 | 190.09 | 45.88 | 24.14% | 235.97 | 144.21 | 46.45% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 280 | 190.09 | 51.25 | 26.96% | 241.34 | 138.84 | 45.67% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 308 | 190.09 | 54.1 | 28.46% | 244.19 | 135.99 | 46.01% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 399 | 190.09 | 61.39 | 32.3% | 251.48 | 128.7 | 46.03% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 427 | 190.09 | 63.49 | 33.4% | 253.59 | 126.59 | 46.05% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 580 | 190.09 | 73.44 | 38.63% | 263.53 | 116.65 | 45.95% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 672 | 190.09 | 78.77 | 41.44% | 268.86 | 111.32 | 45.91% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 763 | 190.09 | 83.51 | 43.93% | 273.6 | 106.58 | 45.82% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 798 | 190.09 | 85.17 | 44.81% | 275.26 | 104.92 | 45.77% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The Expected Move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to Interpret the Chart and Table
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the "cone") for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This allows you to see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical Applications
- Set realistic price targets for your trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for options strategies like iron condors, credit spreads, and straddles.
- Assess the risk/reward of a trade by comparing your analysis to the market-implied consensus.
- Identify when market expectations for volatility are unusually high or low compared to historical levels.