Expected Move
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/12/25 (Fri) | 0 | 177.17 | 1.47 | 0.83% | 178.64 | 175.7 | 39.61% |
| 09/19/25 (Fri) | 7 | 177.17 | 5.19 | 2.93% | 182.36 | 171.98 | 30.21% |
| 09/26/25 (Fri) | 14 | 177.17 | 7.44 | 4.2% | 184.61 | 169.73 | 31.05% |
| 10/03/25 (Fri) | 21 | 177.17 | 9.5 | 5.36% | 186.67 | 167.67 | 32.46% |
| 10/10/25 (Fri) | 28 | 177.17 | 11.01 | 6.21% | 188.18 | 166.16 | 32.68% |
| 10/17/25 (Fri) | 35 | 177.17 | 12.45 | 7.03% | 189.62 | 164.72 | 33.16% |
| 10/24/25 (Fri) | 42 | 177.17 | 13.69 | 7.72% | 190.85 | 163.48 | 33.38% |
| 11/21/25 (Fri) | 70 | 177.17 | 20.27 | 11.44% | 197.44 | 156.9 | 38.52% |
| 01/16/26 (Fri) | 126 | 177.17 | 26.33 | 14.86% | 203.5 | 150.84 | 37.25% |
| 03/20/26 (Fri) | 189 | 177.17 | 33.51 | 18.91% | 210.68 | 143.66 | 38.89% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The Expected Move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to Interpret the Chart and Table
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the "cone") for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This allows you to see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical Applications
- Set realistic price targets for your trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for options strategies like iron condors, credit spreads, and straddles.
- Assess the risk/reward of a trade by comparing your analysis to the market-implied consensus.
- Identify when market expectations for volatility are unusually high or low compared to historical levels.