Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for NVDA
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/15/26 (Fri) | 0 | 235.19 | 4.16 | 1.77% | 239.35 | 231.03 | 1.0% |
| 05/18/26 (Mon) | 3 | 235.19 | 6.03 | 2.57% | 241.22 | 229.16 | 35.84% |
| 05/22/26 (Fri) | 7 | 235.19 | 15.98 | 6.79% | 251.17 | 219.21 | 67.4% |
| 05/26/26 (Tue) | 11 | 235.19 | 16.68 | 7.09% | 251.87 | 218.51 | 57.55% |
| 05/27/26 (Wed) | 12 | 235.19 | 17.13 | 7.28% | 252.32 | 218.06 | 56.77% |
| 05/29/26 (Fri) | 14 | 235.19 | 17.94 | 7.63% | 253.12 | 217.25 | 55.3% |
| 06/05/26 (Fri) | 21 | 235.19 | 20.23 | 8.6% | 255.42 | 214.96 | 51.52% |
| 06/12/26 (Fri) | 28 | 235.19 | 21.95 | 9.33% | 257.14 | 213.24 | 48.7% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 34 | 235.19 | 23.35 | 9.93% | 258.54 | 211.84 | 47.16% |
| 06/26/26 (Fri) | 42 | 235.19 | 25.18 | 10.71% | 260.37 | 210.01 | 45.9% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 63 | 235.19 | 29.94 | 12.73% | 265.13 | 205.25 | 44.67% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 98 | 235.19 | 37.4 | 15.9% | 272.59 | 197.79 | 44.98% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 126 | 235.19 | 43.01 | 18.29% | 278.2 | 192.18 | 45.77% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 154 | 235.19 | 47.2 | 20.07% | 282.39 | 187.99 | 45.52% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 189 | 235.19 | 53.0 | 22.53% | 288.19 | 182.19 | 46.24% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 217 | 235.19 | 56.23 | 23.91% | 291.42 | 178.96 | 45.88% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 245 | 235.19 | 59.27 | 25.2% | 294.46 | 175.92 | 45.53% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 308 | 235.19 | 66.58 | 28.31% | 301.77 | 168.61 | 45.79% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 398 | 235.19 | 75.76 | 32.21% | 310.95 | 159.43 | 46.02% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 490 | 235.19 | 83.92 | 35.68% | 319.11 | 151.27 | 46.14% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 581 | 235.19 | 91.4 | 38.86% | 326.59 | 143.79 | 46.35% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 616 | 235.19 | 94.07 | 40.0% | 329.26 | 141.12 | 46.41% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 763 | 235.19 | 103.85 | 44.16% | 339.04 | 131.34 | 46.37% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 945 | 235.19 | 114.45 | 48.66% | 349.64 | 120.74 | 46.32% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.