Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for NVDA
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/23/26 (Fri) | 7 | 187.05 | 5.99 | 3.2% | 193.04 | 181.06 | 31.68% |
| 01/30/26 (Fri) | 14 | 187.05 | 9.14 | 4.89% | 196.19 | 177.91 | 35.34% |
| 02/06/26 (Fri) | 21 | 187.05 | 11.54 | 6.17% | 198.59 | 175.51 | 36.63% |
| 02/13/26 (Fri) | 28 | 187.05 | 13.2 | 7.05% | 200.25 | 173.85 | 36.56% |
| 02/20/26 (Fri) | 35 | 187.05 | 14.47 | 7.74% | 201.52 | 172.58 | 36.06% |
| 02/27/26 (Fri) | 42 | 187.05 | 18.32 | 9.79% | 205.37 | 168.73 | 41.92% |
| 03/20/26 (Fri) | 63 | 187.05 | 22.74 | 12.16% | 209.79 | 164.31 | 42.77% |
| 04/17/26 (Fri) | 91 | 187.05 | 26.71 | 14.28% | 213.76 | 160.34 | 41.95% |
| 05/15/26 (Fri) | 119 | 187.05 | 30.79 | 16.46% | 217.84 | 156.26 | 42.4% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 153 | 187.05 | 36.04 | 19.27% | 223.09 | 151.01 | 43.76% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 182 | 187.05 | 38.95 | 20.82% | 226.0 | 148.1 | 43.57% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 217 | 187.05 | 42.61 | 22.78% | 229.66 | 144.44 | 43.69% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 245 | 187.05 | 45.94 | 24.56% | 232.99 | 141.11 | 44.41% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 336 | 187.05 | 54.38 | 29.07% | 241.43 | 132.67 | 44.95% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 364 | 187.05 | 56.52 | 30.22% | 243.58 | 130.53 | 45.08% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 517 | 187.05 | 67.7 | 36.19% | 254.75 | 119.35 | 45.62% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 700 | 187.05 | 78.99 | 42.23% | 266.04 | 108.06 | 46.12% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 735 | 187.05 | 80.62 | 43.1% | 267.67 | 106.43 | 45.99% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 1064 | 187.05 | 94.65 | 50.6% | 281.7 | 92.4 | 45.48% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.