Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for QQQ
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10/26 (Tue) | 1 | 606.92 | 5.89 | 0.97% | 612.81 | 601.03 | 1.0% |
| 03/11/26 (Wed) | 2 | 606.92 | 8.74 | 1.44% | 615.66 | 598.18 | 28.51% |
| 03/12/26 (Thu) | 3 | 606.92 | 10.77 | 1.77% | 617.69 | 596.15 | 28.69% |
| 03/13/26 (Fri) | 4 | 606.92 | 12.48 | 2.06% | 619.4 | 594.44 | 28.88% |
| 03/16/26 (Mon) | 7 | 606.92 | 14.32 | 2.36% | 621.24 | 592.6 | 25.11% |
| 03/17/26 (Tue) | 8 | 606.92 | 15.28 | 2.52% | 622.2 | 591.64 | 24.95% |
| 03/18/26 (Wed) | 9 | 606.92 | 17.2 | 2.83% | 624.12 | 589.72 | 26.29% |
| 03/19/26 (Thu) | 10 | 606.92 | 18.6 | 3.06% | 625.52 | 588.32 | 27.39% |
| 03/20/26 (Fri) | 11 | 606.92 | 19.21 | 3.17% | 626.13 | 587.71 | 27.08% |
| 03/27/26 (Fri) | 18 | 606.92 | 23.18 | 3.82% | 630.1 | 583.74 | 24.89% |
| 03/31/26 (Tue) | 22 | 606.92 | 24.29 | 4.0% | 631.21 | 582.63 | 23.68% |
| 04/02/26 (Thu) | 24 | 606.92 | 25.6 | 4.22% | 632.52 | 581.32 | 24.14% |
| 04/10/26 (Fri) | 32 | 606.92 | 28.87 | 4.76% | 635.79 | 578.05 | 23.59% |
| 04/17/26 (Fri) | 39 | 606.92 | 31.69 | 5.22% | 638.61 | 575.23 | 23.39% |
| 04/24/26 (Fri) | 46 | 606.92 | 34.06 | 5.61% | 640.98 | 572.86 | 23.28% |
| 04/30/26 (Thu) | 52 | 606.92 | 36.91 | 6.08% | 643.83 | 570.01 | 23.6% |
| 05/15/26 (Fri) | 67 | 606.92 | 41.73 | 6.88% | 648.65 | 565.19 | 23.69% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 101 | 606.92 | 51.77 | 8.53% | 658.69 | 555.15 | 23.75% |
| 06/30/26 (Tue) | 113 | 606.92 | 54.03 | 8.9% | 660.95 | 552.89 | 23.54% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 165 | 606.92 | 66.72 | 10.99% | 673.64 | 540.2 | 23.97% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 193 | 606.92 | 72.54 | 11.95% | 679.46 | 534.38 | 24.08% |
| 09/30/26 (Wed) | 205 | 606.92 | 74.58 | 12.29% | 681.5 | 532.34 | 24.12% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 312 | 606.92 | 93.27 | 15.37% | 700.19 | 513.65 | 24.45% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 375 | 606.92 | 101.15 | 16.67% | 708.07 | 505.77 | 24.14% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 465 | 606.92 | 113.05 | 18.63% | 719.97 | 493.87 | 24.25% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.