Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for QQQ
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/27/26 (Mon) | 2 | 684.23 | 7.48 | 1.09% | 691.71 | 676.75 | 17.68% |
| 07/28/26 (Tue) | 3 | 684.23 | 10.29 | 1.5% | 694.51 | 673.95 | 21.08% |
| 07/29/26 (Wed) | 4 | 684.23 | 13.46 | 1.97% | 697.69 | 670.77 | 24.75% |
| 07/30/26 (Thu) | 5 | 684.23 | 16.26 | 2.38% | 700.49 | 667.97 | 27.26% |
| 07/31/26 (Fri) | 6 | 684.23 | 18.44 | 2.7% | 702.67 | 665.79 | 28.54% |
| 08/03/26 (Mon) | 9 | 684.23 | 20.04 | 2.93% | 704.27 | 664.19 | 26.03% |
| 08/04/26 (Tue) | 10 | 684.23 | 21.37 | 3.12% | 705.6 | 662.86 | 26.46% |
| 08/05/26 (Wed) | 11 | 684.23 | 22.54 | 3.29% | 706.77 | 661.69 | 26.71% |
| 08/06/26 (Thu) | 12 | 684.23 | 23.57 | 3.44% | 707.8 | 660.66 | 26.82% |
| 08/07/26 (Fri) | 13 | 684.23 | 24.8 | 3.62% | 709.03 | 659.43 | 27.12% |
| 08/14/26 (Fri) | 20 | 684.23 | 29.66 | 4.33% | 713.89 | 654.57 | 26.52% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 27 | 684.23 | 33.59 | 4.91% | 717.82 | 650.64 | 25.99% |
| 08/28/26 (Fri) | 34 | 684.23 | 37.46 | 5.47% | 721.69 | 646.77 | 25.92% |
| 08/31/26 (Mon) | 37 | 684.23 | 38.28 | 5.6% | 722.51 | 645.95 | 25.45% |
| 09/04/26 (Fri) | 41 | 684.23 | 40.83 | 5.97% | 725.06 | 643.4 | 25.74% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 55 | 684.23 | 46.63 | 6.81% | 730.86 | 637.6 | 25.48% |
| 09/30/26 (Wed) | 67 | 684.23 | 50.68 | 7.41% | 734.91 | 633.55 | 25.23% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 83 | 684.23 | 56.58 | 8.27% | 740.81 | 627.65 | 25.37% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 118 | 684.23 | 68.56 | 10.02% | 752.79 | 615.67 | 25.69% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 146 | 684.23 | 76.13 | 11.13% | 760.36 | 608.1 | 25.65% |
| 12/31/26 (Thu) | 159 | 684.23 | 79.66 | 11.64% | 763.89 | 604.57 | 25.81% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 174 | 684.23 | 83.76 | 12.24% | 767.99 | 600.47 | 25.92% |
| 02/19/27 (Fri) | 209 | 684.23 | 91.92 | 13.43% | 776.15 | 592.31 | 25.92% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 237 | 684.23 | 99.14 | 14.49% | 783.37 | 585.09 | 26.24% |
| 03/31/27 (Wed) | 249 | 684.23 | 102.03 | 14.91% | 786.26 | 582.2 | 26.44% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 327 | 684.23 | 119.43 | 17.46% | 803.66 | 564.8 | 26.95% |
| 06/30/27 (Wed) | 340 | 684.23 | 120.71 | 17.64% | 804.94 | 563.52 | 26.8% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 419 | 684.23 | 135.09 | 19.74% | 819.32 | 549.14 | 26.97% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 510 | 684.23 | 149.61 | 21.87% | 833.84 | 534.62 | 27.09% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 545 | 684.23 | 154.49 | 22.58% | 838.72 | 529.74 | 27.14% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 692 | 684.23 | 174.67 | 25.53% | 858.9 | 509.56 | 27.25% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 874 | 684.23 | 196.56 | 28.73% | 880.79 | 487.67 | 27.4% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.