Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for QQQ
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/24/26 (Fri) | 1 | 651.12 | 5.24 | 0.8% | 656.36 | 645.88 | 1.0% |
| 04/27/26 (Mon) | 4 | 651.12 | 8.27 | 1.27% | 659.39 | 642.85 | 17.81% |
| 04/28/26 (Tue) | 5 | 651.12 | 9.73 | 1.49% | 660.85 | 641.39 | 18.73% |
| 04/29/26 (Wed) | 6 | 651.12 | 11.96 | 1.84% | 663.08 | 639.16 | 21.05% |
| 04/30/26 (Thu) | 7 | 651.12 | 13.77 | 2.12% | 664.89 | 637.35 | 22.44% |
| 05/01/26 (Fri) | 8 | 651.12 | 14.99 | 2.3% | 666.11 | 636.13 | 22.8% |
| 05/04/26 (Mon) | 11 | 651.12 | 16.37 | 2.51% | 667.49 | 634.75 | 21.3% |
| 05/05/26 (Tue) | 12 | 651.12 | 17.34 | 2.66% | 668.46 | 633.78 | 21.6% |
| 05/06/26 (Wed) | 13 | 651.12 | 18.11 | 2.78% | 669.23 | 633.01 | 21.68% |
| 05/08/26 (Fri) | 15 | 651.12 | 19.68 | 3.02% | 670.8 | 631.44 | 21.88% |
| 05/15/26 (Fri) | 22 | 651.12 | 23.39 | 3.59% | 674.51 | 627.73 | 21.48% |
| 05/22/26 (Fri) | 29 | 651.12 | 26.76 | 4.11% | 677.88 | 624.36 | 21.38% |
| 05/29/26 (Fri) | 36 | 651.12 | 29.05 | 4.46% | 680.17 | 622.07 | 20.84% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 56 | 651.12 | 37.0 | 5.68% | 688.12 | 614.12 | 21.22% |
| 06/30/26 (Tue) | 68 | 651.12 | 40.11 | 6.16% | 691.23 | 611.01 | 21.0% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 85 | 651.12 | 45.78 | 7.03% | 696.9 | 605.34 | 21.38% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 120 | 651.12 | 55.98 | 8.6% | 707.1 | 595.14 | 21.94% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 148 | 651.12 | 63.17 | 9.7% | 714.29 | 587.95 | 22.27% |
| 09/30/26 (Wed) | 160 | 651.12 | 65.64 | 10.08% | 716.76 | 585.48 | 22.37% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 176 | 651.12 | 69.67 | 10.7% | 720.79 | 581.45 | 22.59% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 239 | 651.12 | 83.53 | 12.83% | 734.65 | 567.59 | 23.18% |
| 12/31/26 (Thu) | 252 | 651.12 | 85.56 | 13.14% | 736.68 | 565.56 | 23.2% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 267 | 651.12 | 88.46 | 13.59% | 739.58 | 562.66 | 23.29% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 330 | 651.12 | 99.11 | 15.22% | 750.23 | 552.01 | 23.43% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 420 | 651.12 | 113.4 | 17.42% | 764.52 | 537.72 | 23.76% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 603 | 651.12 | 137.51 | 21.12% | 788.63 | 513.61 | 24.1% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 785 | 651.12 | 157.18 | 24.14% | 808.3 | 493.94 | 24.19% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 967 | 651.12 | 176.21 | 27.06% | 827.33 | 474.91 | 24.47% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.