Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for QQQ
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/26 (Tue) | 0 | 718.96 | 2.08 | 0.29% | 721.04 | 716.88 | 1.0% |
| 09/09/26 (Wed) | 1 | 718.96 | 4.68 | 0.65% | 723.64 | 714.28 | 16.27% |
| 09/10/26 (Thu) | 2 | 718.96 | 6.47 | 0.9% | 725.43 | 712.49 | 16.81% |
| 09/11/26 (Fri) | 3 | 718.96 | 8.67 | 1.21% | 727.63 | 710.29 | 18.72% |
| 09/14/26 (Mon) | 6 | 718.96 | 9.82 | 1.37% | 728.78 | 709.14 | 15.38% |
| 09/15/26 (Tue) | 7 | 718.96 | 10.86 | 1.51% | 729.82 | 708.1 | 15.78% |
| 09/16/26 (Wed) | 8 | 718.96 | 12.65 | 1.76% | 731.61 | 706.31 | 17.22% |
| 09/17/26 (Thu) | 9 | 718.96 | 13.82 | 1.92% | 732.78 | 705.14 | 17.75% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 10 | 718.96 | 14.94 | 2.08% | 733.9 | 704.02 | 18.14% |
| 09/21/26 (Mon) | 13 | 718.96 | 15.91 | 2.21% | 734.87 | 703.05 | 16.94% |
| 09/22/26 (Tue) | 14 | 718.96 | 16.5 | 2.29% | 735.46 | 702.46 | 16.98% |
| 09/25/26 (Fri) | 17 | 718.96 | 18.94 | 2.63% | 737.9 | 700.02 | 17.75% |
| 09/30/26 (Wed) | 22 | 718.96 | 21.28 | 2.96% | 740.24 | 697.68 | 17.59% |
| 10/02/26 (Fri) | 24 | 718.96 | 22.89 | 3.18% | 741.85 | 696.07 | 18.07% |
| 10/09/26 (Fri) | 31 | 718.96 | 26.3 | 3.66% | 745.26 | 692.66 | 18.26% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 38 | 718.96 | 29.67 | 4.13% | 748.63 | 689.29 | 18.61% |
| 10/23/26 (Fri) | 45 | 718.96 | 32.7 | 4.55% | 751.66 | 686.26 | 18.86% |
| 10/30/26 (Fri) | 52 | 718.96 | 36.34 | 5.05% | 755.3 | 682.62 | 19.48% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 73 | 718.96 | 44.87 | 6.24% | 763.83 | 674.09 | 20.31% |
| 11/30/26 (Mon) | 83 | 718.96 | 47.69 | 6.63% | 766.65 | 671.27 | 20.26% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 101 | 718.96 | 54.3 | 7.55% | 773.26 | 664.66 | 20.88% |
| 12/31/26 (Thu) | 114 | 718.96 | 57.53 | 8.0% | 776.49 | 661.43 | 20.9% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 129 | 718.96 | 61.97 | 8.62% | 780.93 | 656.99 | 21.11% |
| 02/19/27 (Fri) | 164 | 718.96 | 71.31 | 9.92% | 790.27 | 647.65 | 21.48% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 192 | 718.96 | 78.94 | 10.98% | 797.9 | 640.02 | 21.95% |
| 03/31/27 (Wed) | 204 | 718.96 | 81.55 | 11.34% | 800.51 | 637.41 | 22.1% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 282 | 718.96 | 99.88 | 13.89% | 818.84 | 619.08 | 22.88% |
| 06/30/27 (Wed) | 295 | 718.96 | 102.42 | 14.25% | 821.38 | 616.54 | 23.05% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 374 | 718.96 | 118.11 | 16.43% | 837.07 | 600.85 | 23.53% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 465 | 718.96 | 133.01 | 18.5% | 851.97 | 585.95 | 23.76% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 500 | 718.96 | 138.31 | 19.24% | 857.27 | 580.65 | 23.89% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 647 | 718.96 | 159.6 | 22.2% | 878.56 | 559.36 | 24.21% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 829 | 718.96 | 183.6 | 25.54% | 902.56 | 535.36 | 24.65% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.