Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for QQQ
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/26 (Mon) | 0 | 705.06 | 11.81 | 1.68% | 716.87 | 693.25 | 25.59% |
| 06/09/26 (Tue) | 1 | 705.06 | 14.28 | 2.02% | 719.34 | 690.78 | 29.08% |
| 06/10/26 (Wed) | 2 | 705.06 | 17.9 | 2.54% | 722.96 | 687.16 | 31.08% |
| 06/11/26 (Thu) | 3 | 705.06 | 19.93 | 2.83% | 724.99 | 685.13 | 31.31% |
| 06/12/26 (Fri) | 4 | 705.06 | 20.52 | 2.91% | 725.58 | 684.54 | 31.53% |
| 06/15/26 (Mon) | 7 | 705.06 | 22.96 | 3.26% | 728.02 | 682.1 | 28.63% |
| 06/16/26 (Tue) | 8 | 705.06 | 24.34 | 3.45% | 729.4 | 680.72 | 28.81% |
| 06/17/26 (Wed) | 9 | 705.06 | 25.7 | 3.64% | 730.76 | 679.36 | 29.5% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 10 | 705.06 | 27.18 | 3.85% | 732.24 | 677.88 | 29.98% |
| 06/26/26 (Fri) | 18 | 705.06 | 32.13 | 4.56% | 737.19 | 672.93 | 27.94% |
| 06/30/26 (Tue) | 22 | 705.06 | 33.91 | 4.81% | 738.97 | 671.15 | 27.07% |
| 07/02/26 (Thu) | 24 | 705.06 | 35.45 | 5.03% | 740.51 | 669.61 | 27.12% |
| 07/10/26 (Fri) | 32 | 705.06 | 38.6 | 5.48% | 743.66 | 666.46 | 26.06% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 39 | 705.06 | 41.11 | 5.83% | 746.17 | 663.95 | 25.72% |
| 07/24/26 (Fri) | 46 | 705.06 | 45.08 | 6.39% | 750.14 | 659.98 | 25.5% |
| 07/31/26 (Fri) | 53 | 705.06 | 48.28 | 6.85% | 753.34 | 656.78 | 25.74% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 74 | 705.06 | 55.61 | 7.89% | 760.67 | 649.45 | 25.3% |
| 08/31/26 (Mon) | 84 | 705.06 | 59.2 | 8.4% | 764.26 | 645.86 | 25.35% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 102 | 705.06 | 64.75 | 9.18% | 769.81 | 640.31 | 25.37% |
| 09/30/26 (Wed) | 114 | 705.06 | 69.07 | 9.8% | 774.13 | 635.99 | 25.39% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 130 | 705.06 | 73.19 | 10.38% | 778.24 | 631.88 | 25.55% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 193 | 705.06 | 90.73 | 12.87% | 795.79 | 614.33 | 25.91% |
| 12/31/26 (Thu) | 206 | 705.06 | 93.6 | 13.28% | 798.66 | 611.46 | 25.84% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 221 | 705.06 | 96.33 | 13.66% | 801.39 | 608.73 | 25.82% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 284 | 705.06 | 110.81 | 15.72% | 815.87 | 594.25 | 26.06% |
| 03/31/27 (Wed) | 296 | 705.06 | 112.19 | 15.91% | 817.25 | 592.87 | 25.97% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 374 | 705.06 | 126.65 | 17.96% | 831.71 | 578.41 | 25.99% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 466 | 705.06 | 141.53 | 20.07% | 846.58 | 563.53 | 26.07% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 557 | 705.06 | 155.12 | 22.0% | 860.18 | 549.93 | 26.16% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 592 | 705.06 | 160.22 | 22.73% | 865.28 | 544.83 | 26.29% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 739 | 705.06 | 178.92 | 25.38% | 883.98 | 526.13 | 26.28% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 921 | 705.06 | 200.81 | 28.48% | 905.87 | 504.25 | 26.46% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.