Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for AMD
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/12/26 (Fri) | 6 | 466.38 | 32.92 | 7.06% | 499.3 | 433.46 | 75.11% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 12 | 466.38 | 44.99 | 9.65% | 511.37 | 421.39 | 74.21% |
| 06/26/26 (Fri) | 20 | 466.38 | 54.02 | 11.58% | 520.4 | 412.36 | 71.25% |
| 07/02/26 (Thu) | 26 | 466.38 | 60.8 | 13.04% | 527.18 | 405.58 | 70.75% |
| 07/10/26 (Fri) | 34 | 466.38 | 67.98 | 14.58% | 534.36 | 398.4 | 69.56% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 41 | 466.38 | 75.42 | 16.17% | 541.8 | 390.96 | 70.14% |
| 07/24/26 (Fri) | 48 | 466.38 | 82.11 | 17.61% | 548.49 | 384.27 | 71.11% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 76 | 466.38 | 108.5 | 23.26% | 574.88 | 357.88 | 74.83% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 104 | 466.38 | 124.89 | 26.78% | 591.27 | 341.49 | 73.94% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 132 | 466.38 | 138.4 | 29.68% | 604.78 | 327.98 | 72.99% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 167 | 466.38 | 156.53 | 33.56% | 622.91 | 309.85 | 73.7% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 195 | 466.38 | 166.77 | 35.76% | 633.15 | 299.61 | 72.89% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 223 | 466.38 | 174.53 | 37.42% | 640.91 | 291.85 | 71.5% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 286 | 466.38 | 195.44 | 41.9% | 661.82 | 270.94 | 71.14% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 376 | 466.38 | 221.96 | 47.59% | 688.34 | 244.42 | 71.06% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 468 | 466.38 | 245.54 | 52.65% | 711.92 | 220.84 | 71.06% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 559 | 466.38 | 263.73 | 56.55% | 730.11 | 202.65 | 70.36% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 594 | 466.38 | 271.81 | 58.28% | 738.19 | 194.57 | 70.58% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 741 | 466.38 | 295.44 | 63.35% | 761.82 | 170.94 | 69.5% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 923 | 466.38 | 323.0 | 69.26% | 789.38 | 143.38 | 69.16% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.