Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for AMD
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/15/26 (Fri) | 0 | 449.19 | 12.22 | 2.72% | 461.41 | 436.97 | 1.0% |
| 05/22/26 (Fri) | 7 | 449.19 | 33.51 | 7.46% | 482.7 | 415.68 | 73.94% |
| 05/29/26 (Fri) | 14 | 449.19 | 43.03 | 9.58% | 492.22 | 406.16 | 69.34% |
| 06/05/26 (Fri) | 21 | 449.19 | 51.45 | 11.45% | 500.64 | 397.74 | 68.62% |
| 06/12/26 (Fri) | 28 | 449.19 | 59.03 | 13.14% | 508.22 | 390.16 | 68.61% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 34 | 449.19 | 63.94 | 14.23% | 513.13 | 385.25 | 67.66% |
| 06/26/26 (Fri) | 42 | 449.19 | 69.59 | 15.49% | 518.78 | 379.6 | 66.5% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 63 | 449.19 | 84.92 | 18.9% | 534.11 | 364.27 | 66.62% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 98 | 449.19 | 111.22 | 24.76% | 560.41 | 337.97 | 70.41% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 126 | 449.19 | 124.1 | 27.63% | 573.29 | 325.09 | 69.51% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 154 | 449.19 | 135.19 | 30.1% | 584.38 | 314.0 | 68.67% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 189 | 449.19 | 149.6 | 33.3% | 598.79 | 299.59 | 68.85% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 217 | 449.19 | 157.87 | 35.14% | 607.06 | 291.32 | 67.97% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 245 | 449.19 | 164.62 | 36.65% | 613.81 | 284.57 | 66.83% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 308 | 449.19 | 182.52 | 40.63% | 631.71 | 266.67 | 66.42% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 398 | 449.19 | 204.0 | 45.42% | 653.19 | 245.19 | 65.77% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 490 | 449.19 | 224.06 | 49.88% | 673.25 | 225.13 | 65.56% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 581 | 449.19 | 241.55 | 53.77% | 690.74 | 207.64 | 65.33% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 616 | 449.19 | 247.12 | 55.01% | 696.31 | 202.07 | 65.07% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 763 | 449.19 | 272.17 | 60.59% | 721.36 | 177.02 | 65.12% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 945 | 449.19 | 297.05 | 66.13% | 746.24 | 152.14 | 64.72% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.