Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for AMD
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09/26 (Wed) | 4 | 477.45 | 14.47 | 3.03% | 491.92 | 462.98 | 38.0% |
| 09/11/26 (Fri) | 6 | 477.45 | 20.19 | 4.23% | 497.64 | 457.26 | 44.86% |
| 09/14/26 (Mon) | 9 | 477.45 | 22.06 | 4.62% | 499.51 | 455.39 | 41.23% |
| 09/16/26 (Wed) | 11 | 477.45 | 26.26 | 5.5% | 503.71 | 451.19 | 44.83% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 13 | 477.45 | 29.86 | 6.25% | 507.31 | 447.59 | 46.99% |
| 09/25/26 (Fri) | 20 | 477.45 | 37.12 | 7.78% | 514.57 | 440.33 | 47.87% |
| 10/02/26 (Fri) | 27 | 477.45 | 43.07 | 9.02% | 520.52 | 434.38 | 48.12% |
| 10/09/26 (Fri) | 34 | 477.45 | 48.45 | 10.15% | 525.9 | 429.0 | 48.47% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 41 | 477.45 | 53.72 | 11.25% | 531.17 | 423.73 | 48.77% |
| 10/23/26 (Fri) | 48 | 477.45 | 58.48 | 12.25% | 535.93 | 418.97 | 49.48% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 76 | 477.45 | 80.05 | 16.77% | 557.5 | 397.4 | 53.88% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 104 | 477.45 | 92.25 | 19.32% | 569.7 | 385.2 | 53.26% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 132 | 477.45 | 102.98 | 21.57% | 580.43 | 374.47 | 52.9% |
| 02/19/27 (Fri) | 167 | 477.45 | 118.51 | 24.82% | 595.96 | 358.94 | 54.31% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 195 | 477.45 | 128.14 | 26.84% | 605.59 | 349.31 | 54.33% |
| 04/16/27 (Fri) | 223 | 477.45 | 135.94 | 28.47% | 613.39 | 341.51 | 54.13% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 285 | 477.45 | 155.36 | 32.54% | 632.81 | 322.09 | 54.94% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 377 | 477.45 | 179.71 | 37.64% | 657.16 | 297.74 | 55.6% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 468 | 477.45 | 201.05 | 42.11% | 678.5 | 276.4 | 56.17% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 503 | 477.45 | 207.72 | 43.51% | 685.17 | 269.73 | 56.1% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 650 | 477.45 | 236.3 | 49.49% | 713.75 | 241.15 | 56.72% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 832 | 477.45 | 263.75 | 55.24% | 741.2 | 213.69 | 56.61% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.