Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for AMD
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/27/26 (Mon) | 2 | 521.95 | 17.98 | 3.44% | 539.93 | 503.97 | 55.88% |
| 07/29/26 (Wed) | 4 | 521.95 | 31.02 | 5.94% | 552.98 | 490.93 | 74.5% |
| 07/31/26 (Fri) | 6 | 521.95 | 40.1 | 7.68% | 562.05 | 481.85 | 81.69% |
| 08/03/26 (Mon) | 9 | 521.95 | 44.35 | 8.5% | 566.3 | 477.6 | 75.78% |
| 08/05/26 (Wed) | 11 | 521.95 | 58.61 | 11.23% | 580.56 | 463.34 | 91.23% |
| 08/07/26 (Fri) | 13 | 521.95 | 62.18 | 11.91% | 584.13 | 459.77 | 89.69% |
| 08/14/26 (Fri) | 20 | 521.95 | 72.65 | 13.92% | 594.6 | 449.3 | 85.72% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 27 | 521.95 | 80.3 | 15.39% | 602.25 | 441.65 | 82.13% |
| 08/28/26 (Fri) | 34 | 521.95 | 88.27 | 16.91% | 610.22 | 433.68 | 80.7% |
| 09/04/26 (Fri) | 41 | 521.95 | 95.31 | 18.26% | 617.26 | 426.64 | 79.8% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 55 | 521.95 | 106.93 | 20.49% | 628.88 | 415.02 | 77.53% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 83 | 521.95 | 128.46 | 24.61% | 650.41 | 393.49 | 76.25% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 118 | 521.95 | 152.38 | 29.2% | 674.33 | 369.57 | 76.26% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 146 | 521.95 | 165.94 | 31.79% | 687.89 | 356.01 | 74.89% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 174 | 521.95 | 178.52 | 34.2% | 700.47 | 343.43 | 74.05% |
| 02/19/27 (Fri) | 209 | 521.95 | 194.63 | 37.29% | 716.58 | 327.32 | 73.91% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 237 | 521.95 | 205.72 | 39.41% | 727.67 | 316.23 | 73.59% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 327 | 521.95 | 237.85 | 45.57% | 759.8 | 284.1 | 73.02% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 419 | 521.95 | 265.48 | 50.86% | 787.43 | 256.47 | 72.67% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 510 | 521.95 | 289.34 | 55.43% | 811.29 | 232.61 | 72.39% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 545 | 521.95 | 297.31 | 56.96% | 819.26 | 224.64 | 72.11% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 692 | 521.95 | 330.74 | 63.37% | 852.69 | 191.22 | 72.14% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 874 | 521.95 | 362.29 | 69.41% | 884.24 | 159.66 | 71.54% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.