Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for GOOGL
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/15/26 (Fri) | 0 | 401.07 | 4.77 | 1.19% | 405.84 | 396.3 | 1.0% |
| 05/18/26 (Mon) | 3 | 401.07 | 7.16 | 1.79% | 408.23 | 393.91 | 24.93% |
| 05/20/26 (Wed) | 5 | 401.07 | 12.18 | 3.04% | 413.25 | 388.89 | 34.78% |
| 05/22/26 (Fri) | 7 | 401.07 | 14.19 | 3.54% | 415.26 | 386.88 | 35.05% |
| 05/26/26 (Tue) | 11 | 401.07 | 15.07 | 3.76% | 416.14 | 386.0 | 30.46% |
| 05/27/26 (Wed) | 12 | 401.07 | 16.43 | 4.1% | 417.5 | 384.64 | 31.91% |
| 05/29/26 (Fri) | 14 | 401.07 | 17.57 | 4.38% | 418.64 | 383.5 | 31.74% |
| 06/05/26 (Fri) | 21 | 401.07 | 21.61 | 5.39% | 422.68 | 379.46 | 32.25% |
| 06/12/26 (Fri) | 28 | 401.07 | 24.59 | 6.13% | 425.66 | 376.48 | 32.0% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 34 | 401.07 | 27.26 | 6.8% | 428.33 | 373.81 | 32.27% |
| 06/26/26 (Fri) | 42 | 401.07 | 29.84 | 7.44% | 430.9 | 371.24 | 31.89% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 63 | 401.07 | 37.7 | 9.4% | 438.77 | 363.37 | 33.01% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 98 | 401.07 | 52.53 | 13.1% | 453.6 | 348.54 | 37.03% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 126 | 401.07 | 58.61 | 14.61% | 459.68 | 342.46 | 36.56% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 154 | 401.07 | 64.22 | 16.01% | 465.29 | 336.85 | 36.25% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 189 | 401.07 | 72.93 | 18.18% | 474.0 | 328.14 | 37.23% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 217 | 401.07 | 76.63 | 19.11% | 477.7 | 324.44 | 36.57% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 245 | 401.07 | 81.22 | 20.25% | 482.29 | 319.85 | 36.48% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 308 | 401.07 | 91.44 | 22.8% | 492.51 | 309.63 | 36.75% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 398 | 401.07 | 104.68 | 26.1% | 505.75 | 296.39 | 37.12% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 490 | 401.07 | 115.64 | 28.83% | 516.71 | 285.43 | 37.07% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 581 | 401.07 | 126.48 | 31.54% | 527.55 | 274.59 | 37.34% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 616 | 401.07 | 129.88 | 32.38% | 530.95 | 271.19 | 37.26% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 763 | 401.07 | 144.05 | 35.92% | 545.12 | 257.02 | 37.25% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 945 | 401.07 | 159.35 | 39.73% | 560.42 | 241.72 | 37.34% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.