Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for QQQ
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/26 (Mon) | 2 | 700.77 | 11.13 | 1.59% | 711.9 | 689.64 | 24.45% |
| 06/09/26 (Tue) | 3 | 700.77 | 14.22 | 2.03% | 714.99 | 686.55 | 28.17% |
| 06/10/26 (Wed) | 4 | 700.77 | 16.69 | 2.38% | 717.46 | 684.08 | 29.49% |
| 06/11/26 (Thu) | 5 | 700.77 | 18.47 | 2.64% | 719.24 | 682.3 | 29.66% |
| 06/12/26 (Fri) | 6 | 700.77 | 20.12 | 2.87% | 720.89 | 680.65 | 29.8% |
| 06/15/26 (Mon) | 9 | 700.77 | 21.8 | 3.11% | 722.57 | 678.97 | 27.22% |
| 06/17/26 (Wed) | 11 | 700.77 | 24.82 | 3.54% | 725.59 | 675.95 | 28.38% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 12 | 700.77 | 26.52 | 3.79% | 727.29 | 674.25 | 29.02% |
| 06/26/26 (Fri) | 20 | 700.77 | 32.0 | 4.57% | 732.77 | 668.77 | 27.49% |
| 06/30/26 (Tue) | 24 | 700.77 | 33.42 | 4.77% | 734.19 | 667.35 | 26.53% |
| 07/02/26 (Thu) | 26 | 700.77 | 34.88 | 4.98% | 735.65 | 665.89 | 26.62% |
| 07/10/26 (Fri) | 34 | 700.77 | 38.26 | 5.46% | 739.03 | 662.51 | 25.64% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 41 | 700.77 | 41.39 | 5.91% | 742.16 | 659.38 | 25.37% |
| 07/31/26 (Fri) | 55 | 700.77 | 48.38 | 6.9% | 749.15 | 652.39 | 25.64% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 76 | 700.77 | 56.43 | 8.05% | 757.2 | 644.34 | 25.48% |
| 08/31/26 (Mon) | 86 | 700.77 | 59.9 | 8.55% | 760.67 | 640.87 | 25.51% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 104 | 700.77 | 65.99 | 9.42% | 766.76 | 634.78 | 25.5% |
| 09/30/26 (Wed) | 116 | 700.77 | 69.33 | 9.89% | 770.1 | 631.44 | 25.5% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 132 | 700.77 | 74.35 | 10.61% | 775.12 | 626.42 | 25.59% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 195 | 700.77 | 91.69 | 13.08% | 792.46 | 609.08 | 26.0% |
| 12/31/26 (Thu) | 208 | 700.77 | 94.8 | 13.53% | 795.57 | 605.97 | 26.09% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 223 | 700.77 | 97.76 | 13.95% | 798.53 | 603.01 | 25.92% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 286 | 700.77 | 111.69 | 15.94% | 812.46 | 589.08 | 26.15% |
| 03/31/27 (Wed) | 298 | 700.77 | 113.37 | 16.18% | 814.14 | 587.4 | 26.09% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 376 | 700.77 | 129.11 | 18.42% | 829.88 | 571.66 | 26.38% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 468 | 700.77 | 143.12 | 20.42% | 843.89 | 557.65 | 26.24% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 559 | 700.77 | 156.44 | 22.32% | 857.21 | 544.33 | 26.22% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 594 | 700.77 | 161.92 | 23.11% | 862.69 | 538.85 | 26.44% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 741 | 700.77 | 181.05 | 25.84% | 881.82 | 519.72 | 26.43% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 923 | 700.77 | 203.04 | 28.97% | 903.81 | 497.73 | 26.65% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.