Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for QQQ
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/15/26 (Fri) | 0 | 719.06 | 5.8 | 0.81% | 724.86 | 713.26 | 1.0% |
| 05/18/26 (Mon) | 3 | 719.06 | 8.84 | 1.23% | 727.9 | 710.22 | 16.83% |
| 05/19/26 (Tue) | 4 | 719.06 | 10.51 | 1.46% | 729.57 | 708.55 | 18.06% |
| 05/20/26 (Wed) | 5 | 719.06 | 13.02 | 1.81% | 732.08 | 706.04 | 20.48% |
| 05/21/26 (Thu) | 6 | 719.06 | 15.34 | 2.13% | 734.4 | 703.72 | 22.61% |
| 05/22/26 (Fri) | 7 | 719.06 | 16.76 | 2.33% | 735.82 | 702.3 | 23.05% |
| 05/26/26 (Tue) | 11 | 719.06 | 18.74 | 2.61% | 737.8 | 700.32 | 20.98% |
| 05/27/26 (Wed) | 12 | 719.06 | 19.79 | 2.75% | 738.85 | 699.27 | 21.62% |
| 05/28/26 (Thu) | 13 | 719.06 | 20.64 | 2.87% | 739.7 | 698.42 | 21.48% |
| 05/29/26 (Fri) | 14 | 719.06 | 21.95 | 3.05% | 741.01 | 697.11 | 22.01% |
| 06/05/26 (Fri) | 21 | 719.06 | 26.41 | 3.67% | 745.47 | 692.65 | 21.91% |
| 06/12/26 (Fri) | 28 | 719.06 | 30.49 | 4.24% | 749.55 | 688.57 | 21.97% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 34 | 719.06 | 33.62 | 4.68% | 752.68 | 685.44 | 22.04% |
| 06/26/26 (Fri) | 42 | 719.06 | 37.11 | 5.16% | 756.17 | 681.95 | 22.04% |
| 06/30/26 (Tue) | 46 | 719.06 | 38.24 | 5.32% | 757.3 | 680.82 | 21.75% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 63 | 719.06 | 45.55 | 6.33% | 764.61 | 673.51 | 22.15% |
| 07/31/26 (Fri) | 77 | 719.06 | 51.58 | 7.17% | 770.64 | 667.48 | 22.7% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 98 | 719.06 | 58.83 | 8.18% | 777.89 | 660.23 | 22.96% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 126 | 719.06 | 67.57 | 9.4% | 786.63 | 651.49 | 23.27% |
| 09/30/26 (Wed) | 138 | 719.06 | 70.31 | 9.78% | 789.37 | 648.75 | 23.23% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 154 | 719.06 | 75.45 | 10.49% | 794.51 | 643.61 | 23.54% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 217 | 719.06 | 91.38 | 12.71% | 810.44 | 627.68 | 24.02% |
| 12/31/26 (Thu) | 230 | 719.06 | 93.89 | 13.06% | 812.95 | 625.17 | 24.06% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 245 | 719.06 | 97.51 | 13.56% | 816.57 | 621.55 | 24.19% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 308 | 719.06 | 110.04 | 15.3% | 829.1 | 609.02 | 24.32% |
| 03/31/27 (Wed) | 320 | 719.06 | 112.1 | 15.59% | 831.16 | 606.96 | 24.38% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 398 | 719.06 | 126.56 | 17.6% | 845.62 | 592.49 | 24.6% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 490 | 719.06 | 141.07 | 19.62% | 860.13 | 577.99 | 24.74% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 581 | 719.06 | 153.46 | 21.34% | 872.52 | 565.6 | 24.72% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 616 | 719.06 | 159.16 | 22.13% | 878.22 | 559.9 | 24.97% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 763 | 719.06 | 176.61 | 24.56% | 895.67 | 542.45 | 24.89% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 945 | 719.06 | 197.89 | 27.52% | 916.95 | 521.17 | 25.09% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.