Macroeconomics

US Treasury Yield Curve

Compare today’s curve against history and monitor key inversion signals across maturities.

Yield Curve Snapshot

Shape of the curve across maturities today vs prior periods

10Y - 2Y Treasury Spread

10Y - 3M Treasury Spread

High-Yield Credit Spread (OAS)

Understanding the Yield Curve

What is the yield curve?

The curve plots yields for identical-credit-quality Treasuries across maturities. Its shape is a powerful signal about growth, inflation, and policy expectations.

How to interpret the charts

  • Curve snapshot: Normal = upward sloping; flat/inverted often precedes recessions.
  • Spreads (10Y-2Y, 10Y-3M): Going below zero flags inversion risk.
  • HY credit spread: Expanding spreads = stress in riskier debt.

Practical applications

  • Gauge macro outlook and align asset allocation.
  • Anticipate policy pivots — the Fed often eases after sustained inversions.
  • Track risk-on/off sentiment via credit spreads.

Methodology

How we read curve regimes

The curve snapshots pull Treasury constant-maturity series (DGS1MO, DGS3MO, DGS6MO, DGS2, DGS3, DGS5, DGS7, DGS10, DGS20, DGS30) directly from FRED. We compare each daily observation to prior curves (1M, 3M, 6M, 1Y ago) and recompute spreads before plotting.

Key FRED inputs

  • Treasury yields — Constant-maturity yields from 1-month bills through 30-year bonds.
  • Term spreads — 10-year minus 2-year and 10-year minus 3-month spreads to monitor inversions.
  • High-yield spreads — Corporate credit spreads to see how risk sentiment responds to curve shifts.

Regime vocabulary

Normal
The 10Y-3M spread is ≥ +0.20 percentage points — long rates exceed short rates, signalling typical growth expectations.
Flat
The 10Y-3M spread is between 0 and +0.20 pp — the curve is close to inverting and growth momentum is slowing.
Inverted
The 10Y-3M spread is below 0 — markets expect policy cuts and recession odds rise.

Additional context

  • We refresh the curve as soon as the Treasury updates its daily constant-maturity data (usually 6 p.m. ET).
  • Credit spreads are useful confirmation: HY OAS tends to widen rapidly once the curve has been inverted for several months.