Expected Move
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/17/25 (Mon) | 3 | 671.88 | 5.05 | 0.75% | 676.93 | 666.83 | 12.15% |
| 11/18/25 (Tue) | 4 | 671.88 | 6.81 | 1.01% | 678.69 | 665.07 | 14.19% |
| 11/19/25 (Wed) | 5 | 671.88 | 8.61 | 1.28% | 680.49 | 663.27 | 16.04% |
| 11/20/25 (Thu) | 6 | 671.88 | 10.26 | 1.53% | 682.14 | 661.62 | 17.48% |
| 11/21/25 (Fri) | 7 | 671.88 | 11.29 | 1.68% | 683.17 | 660.59 | 17.74% |
| 11/24/25 (Mon) | 10 | 671.88 | 12.27 | 1.83% | 684.15 | 659.61 | 16.19% |
| 11/25/25 (Tue) | 11 | 671.88 | 12.98 | 1.93% | 684.86 | 658.9 | 16.32% |
| 11/26/25 (Wed) | 12 | 671.88 | 14.2 | 2.11% | 686.08 | 657.68 | 16.92% |
| 11/28/25 (Fri) | 14 | 671.88 | 14.39 | 2.14% | 686.27 | 657.49 | 16.03% |
| 12/05/25 (Fri) | 21 | 671.88 | 17.83 | 2.65% | 689.71 | 654.05 | 16.11% |
| 12/12/25 (Fri) | 28 | 671.88 | 21.28 | 3.17% | 693.16 | 650.6 | 16.64% |
| 12/19/25 (Fri) | 35 | 671.88 | 23.95 | 3.57% | 695.83 | 647.93 | 16.54% |
| 12/26/25 (Fri) | 42 | 671.88 | 25.27 | 3.76% | 697.15 | 646.61 | 16.12% |
| 12/31/25 (Wed) | 47 | 671.88 | 26.6 | 3.96% | 698.48 | 645.28 | 16.11% |
| 01/02/26 (Fri) | 49 | 671.88 | 27.3 | 4.06% | 699.18 | 644.58 | 16.19% |
| 01/16/26 (Fri) | 63 | 671.88 | 32.19 | 4.79% | 704.07 | 639.69 | 16.74% |
| 01/30/26 (Fri) | 77 | 671.88 | 35.58 | 5.3% | 707.46 | 636.3 | 16.74% |
| 02/20/26 (Fri) | 98 | 671.88 | 41.25 | 6.14% | 713.13 | 630.63 | 17.14% |
| 02/27/26 (Fri) | 105 | 671.88 | 42.59 | 6.34% | 714.47 | 629.29 | 17.11% |
| 03/20/26 (Fri) | 126 | 671.88 | 47.96 | 7.14% | 719.84 | 623.92 | 17.56% |
| 03/31/26 (Tue) | 137 | 671.88 | 49.82 | 7.41% | 721.7 | 622.06 | 17.62% |
| 04/30/26 (Thu) | 167 | 671.88 | 55.54 | 8.27% | 727.42 | 616.34 | 17.79% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 216 | 671.88 | 65.35 | 9.73% | 737.23 | 606.53 | 18.31% |
| 06/30/26 (Tue) | 228 | 671.88 | 66.8 | 9.94% | 738.68 | 605.08 | 18.32% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 308 | 671.88 | 80.18 | 11.93% | 752.06 | 591.7 | 18.86% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 399 | 671.88 | 92.69 | 13.8% | 764.57 | 579.19 | 19.2% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 427 | 671.88 | 95.61 | 14.23% | 767.49 | 576.27 | 19.23% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 580 | 671.88 | 113.67 | 16.92% | 785.55 | 558.21 | 19.56% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 798 | 671.88 | 135.09 | 20.11% | 806.97 | 536.79 | 19.99% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The Expected Move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to Interpret the Chart and Table
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the "cone") for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This allows you to see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical Applications
- Set realistic price targets for your trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for options strategies like iron condors, credit spreads, and straddles.
- Assess the risk/reward of a trade by comparing your analysis to the market-implied consensus.
- Identify when market expectations for volatility are unusually high or low compared to historical levels.