Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for SPY
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/14/26 (Wed) | 0 | 777.97 | 3.56 | 0.46% | 781.53 | 774.4 | 12.57% |
| 10/15/26 (Thu) | 1 | 777.97 | 4.65 | 0.6% | 782.61 | 773.32 | 11.76% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 2 | 777.97 | 5.7 | 0.73% | 783.66 | 772.27 | 11.7% |
| 10/19/26 (Mon) | 5 | 777.97 | 6.54 | 0.84% | 784.5 | 771.43 | 9.57% |
| 10/20/26 (Tue) | 6 | 777.97 | 7.17 | 0.92% | 785.14 | 770.79 | 9.72% |
| 10/21/26 (Wed) | 7 | 777.97 | 7.95 | 1.02% | 785.91 | 770.02 | 10.08% |
| 10/22/26 (Thu) | 8 | 777.97 | 8.63 | 1.11% | 786.59 | 769.34 | 10.31% |
| 10/23/26 (Fri) | 9 | 777.97 | 9.31 | 1.2% | 787.28 | 768.65 | 10.49% |
| 10/26/26 (Mon) | 12 | 777.97 | 10.04 | 1.29% | 788.01 | 767.92 | 9.97% |
| 10/27/26 (Tue) | 13 | 777.97 | 10.33 | 1.33% | 788.29 | 767.64 | 9.88% |
| 10/30/26 (Fri) | 16 | 777.97 | 13.35 | 1.72% | 791.32 | 764.61 | 11.51% |
| 11/06/26 (Fri) | 23 | 777.97 | 16.81 | 2.16% | 794.77 | 761.16 | 12.19% |
| 11/13/26 (Fri) | 30 | 777.97 | 19.55 | 2.51% | 797.51 | 758.42 | 12.46% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 37 | 777.97 | 22.27 | 2.86% | 800.24 | 755.69 | 12.83% |
| 11/27/26 (Fri) | 44 | 777.97 | 24.13 | 3.1% | 802.1 | 753.83 | 12.76% |
| 11/30/26 (Mon) | 47 | 777.97 | 24.68 | 3.17% | 802.64 | 753.29 | 12.66% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 65 | 777.97 | 31.03 | 3.99% | 809.0 | 746.93 | 13.46% |
| 12/31/26 (Thu) | 78 | 777.97 | 33.77 | 4.34% | 811.74 | 744.19 | 13.55% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 93 | 777.97 | 37.56 | 4.83% | 815.53 | 740.4 | 13.79% |
| 01/29/27 (Fri) | 107 | 777.97 | 41.62 | 5.35% | 819.58 | 736.35 | 14.19% |
| 02/19/27 (Fri) | 128 | 777.97 | 46.35 | 5.96% | 824.31 | 731.62 | 14.42% |
| 02/26/27 (Fri) | 135 | 777.97 | 48.55 | 6.24% | 826.52 | 729.41 | 14.66% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 156 | 777.97 | 52.87 | 6.8% | 830.84 | 725.1 | 14.88% |
| 03/31/27 (Wed) | 168 | 777.97 | 54.75 | 7.04% | 832.72 | 723.21 | 14.96% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 246 | 777.97 | 71.97 | 9.25% | 849.94 | 705.99 | 16.12% |
| 06/30/27 (Wed) | 259 | 777.97 | 73.23 | 9.41% | 851.2 | 704.73 | 16.07% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 338 | 777.97 | 88.92 | 11.43% | 866.89 | 689.04 | 16.96% |
| 09/30/27 (Thu) | 351 | 777.97 | 91.65 | 11.78% | 869.62 | 686.31 | 17.22% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 429 | 777.97 | 104.27 | 13.4% | 882.24 | 673.69 | 17.64% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 464 | 777.97 | 109.17 | 14.03% | 887.14 | 668.79 | 17.78% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 611 | 777.97 | 130.45 | 16.77% | 908.41 | 647.52 | 18.45% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 793 | 777.97 | 153.28 | 19.7% | 931.24 | 624.69 | 19.04% |
| 01/19/29 (Fri) | 828 | 777.97 | 156.81 | 20.16% | 934.77 | 621.16 | 19.14% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.