Expected Move
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/12/25 (Fri) | 0 | 657.63 | 2.08 | 0.32% | 659.71 | 655.55 | 8.77% |
| 09/15/25 (Mon) | 3 | 657.63 | 3.11 | 0.47% | 660.74 | 654.52 | 6.6% |
| 09/16/25 (Tue) | 4 | 657.63 | 3.93 | 0.6% | 661.56 | 653.7 | 7.45% |
| 09/17/25 (Wed) | 5 | 657.63 | 5.6 | 0.85% | 663.23 | 652.03 | 9.73% |
| 09/18/25 (Thu) | 6 | 657.63 | 6.32 | 0.96% | 663.95 | 651.31 | 10.18% |
| 09/19/25 (Fri) | 7 | 657.63 | 7.36 | 1.12% | 664.99 | 650.27 | 10.21% |
| 09/23/25 (Tue) | 11 | 657.63 | 8.24 | 1.25% | 665.87 | 649.39 | 9.81% |
| 09/24/25 (Wed) | 12 | 657.63 | 8.33 | 1.27% | 665.96 | 649.3 | 9.12% |
| 09/26/25 (Fri) | 14 | 657.63 | 9.61 | 1.46% | 667.24 | 648.02 | 10.36% |
| 09/30/25 (Tue) | 18 | 657.63 | 10.68 | 1.62% | 668.31 | 646.95 | 10.37% |
| 10/03/25 (Fri) | 21 | 657.63 | 12.34 | 1.88% | 669.97 | 645.29 | 11.11% |
| 10/10/25 (Fri) | 28 | 657.63 | 14.49 | 2.2% | 672.12 | 643.14 | 11.36% |
| 10/17/25 (Fri) | 35 | 657.63 | 16.66 | 2.53% | 674.29 | 640.97 | 11.71% |
| 10/24/25 (Fri) | 42 | 657.63 | 18.59 | 2.83% | 676.22 | 639.04 | 11.94% |
| 10/31/25 (Fri) | 49 | 657.63 | 20.8 | 3.16% | 678.43 | 636.83 | 12.37% |
| 11/21/25 (Fri) | 70 | 657.63 | 26.19 | 3.98% | 683.82 | 631.44 | 13.05% |
| 11/28/25 (Fri) | 77 | 657.63 | 27.53 | 4.19% | 685.16 | 630.1 | 13.08% |
| 12/19/25 (Fri) | 98 | 657.63 | 31.99 | 4.86% | 689.62 | 625.64 | 13.43% |
| 12/31/25 (Wed) | 110 | 657.63 | 33.66 | 5.12% | 691.29 | 623.97 | 13.52% |
| 01/16/26 (Fri) | 126 | 657.63 | 37.2 | 5.66% | 694.83 | 620.43 | 13.92% |
| 02/20/26 (Fri) | 161 | 657.63 | 44.11 | 6.71% | 701.75 | 613.51 | 14.52% |
| 03/20/26 (Fri) | 189 | 657.63 | 49.01 | 7.45% | 706.64 | 608.62 | 14.88% |
| 03/31/26 (Tue) | 200 | 657.63 | 50.46 | 7.67% | 708.09 | 607.17 | 15.0% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 279 | 657.63 | 62.96 | 9.57% | 720.59 | 594.67 | 15.75% |
| 06/30/26 (Tue) | 291 | 657.63 | 64.17 | 9.76% | 721.8 | 593.46 | 15.81% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 371 | 657.63 | 75.25 | 11.44% | 732.88 | 582.38 | 16.37% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 462 | 657.63 | 85.92 | 13.06% | 743.55 | 571.71 | 16.78% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 490 | 657.63 | 88.44 | 13.45% | 746.07 | 569.19 | 16.84% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 826 | 657.63 | 120.78 | 18.37% | 778.41 | 536.85 | 17.71% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The Expected Move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to Interpret the Chart and Table
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the "cone") for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This allows you to see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical Applications
- Set realistic price targets for your trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for options strategies like iron condors, credit spreads, and straddles.
- Assess the risk/reward of a trade by comparing your analysis to the market-implied consensus.
- Identify when market expectations for volatility are unusually high or low compared to historical levels.