Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for SPY
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/17/26 (Fri) | 1 | 701.77 | 3.37 | 0.48% | 705.15 | 698.4 | 13.18% |
| 04/20/26 (Mon) | 4 | 701.77 | 5.73 | 0.82% | 707.5 | 696.05 | 11.4% |
| 04/21/26 (Tue) | 5 | 701.77 | 6.86 | 0.98% | 708.63 | 694.92 | 12.22% |
| 04/22/26 (Wed) | 6 | 701.77 | 7.81 | 1.11% | 709.58 | 693.97 | 12.71% |
| 04/23/26 (Thu) | 7 | 701.77 | 8.66 | 1.23% | 710.43 | 693.12 | 13.06% |
| 04/24/26 (Fri) | 8 | 701.77 | 9.55 | 1.36% | 711.32 | 692.23 | 13.43% |
| 04/27/26 (Mon) | 11 | 701.77 | 10.95 | 1.56% | 712.73 | 690.82 | 13.19% |
| 04/28/26 (Tue) | 12 | 701.77 | 11.63 | 1.66% | 713.4 | 690.15 | 13.41% |
| 04/29/26 (Wed) | 13 | 701.77 | 13.2 | 1.88% | 714.98 | 688.57 | 14.56% |
| 04/30/26 (Thu) | 14 | 701.77 | 13.84 | 1.97% | 715.62 | 687.93 | 14.77% |
| 05/01/26 (Fri) | 15 | 701.77 | 14.56 | 2.08% | 716.34 | 687.21 | 14.97% |
| 05/08/26 (Fri) | 22 | 701.77 | 17.43 | 2.48% | 719.2 | 684.35 | 14.79% |
| 05/15/26 (Fri) | 29 | 701.77 | 19.95 | 2.84% | 721.72 | 681.83 | 14.73% |
| 05/22/26 (Fri) | 36 | 701.77 | 22.57 | 3.22% | 724.34 | 679.21 | 14.93% |
| 05/29/26 (Fri) | 43 | 701.77 | 24.48 | 3.49% | 726.25 | 677.29 | 14.82% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 63 | 701.77 | 31.19 | 4.44% | 732.96 | 670.59 | 15.47% |
| 06/30/26 (Tue) | 75 | 701.77 | 33.0 | 4.7% | 734.78 | 668.77 | 15.18% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 92 | 701.77 | 38.21 | 5.44% | 739.98 | 663.57 | 15.82% |
| 07/31/26 (Fri) | 106 | 701.77 | 41.44 | 5.9% | 743.21 | 660.34 | 15.96% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 127 | 701.77 | 47.15 | 6.72% | 748.92 | 654.63 | 16.53% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 155 | 701.77 | 53.53 | 7.63% | 755.3 | 648.25 | 16.96% |
| 09/30/26 (Wed) | 167 | 701.77 | 55.41 | 7.9% | 757.19 | 646.36 | 17.04% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 246 | 701.77 | 71.78 | 10.23% | 773.56 | 629.99 | 18.11% |
| 12/31/26 (Thu) | 259 | 701.77 | 73.17 | 10.43% | 774.94 | 628.61 | 18.07% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 274 | 701.77 | 76.08 | 10.84% | 777.85 | 625.7 | 18.27% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 337 | 701.77 | 86.78 | 12.37% | 788.55 | 615.0 | 18.74% |
| 03/31/27 (Wed) | 349 | 701.77 | 87.46 | 12.46% | 789.23 | 614.32 | 18.61% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 427 | 701.77 | 99.08 | 14.12% | 800.86 | 602.69 | 19.02% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 519 | 701.77 | 111.48 | 15.89% | 813.26 | 590.29 | 19.45% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 610 | 701.77 | 122.27 | 17.42% | 824.04 | 579.51 | 19.71% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 645 | 701.77 | 125.39 | 17.87% | 827.16 | 576.39 | 19.71% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 792 | 701.77 | 141.2 | 20.12% | 842.98 | 560.57 | 20.06% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 974 | 701.77 | 159.29 | 22.7% | 861.06 | 542.49 | 20.34% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.