Macroeconomics

Inflation & Real Rates

De-noised inflation measures, breakeven term structure, real yield curve, and policy stance.

Regime: Sticky

Headline CPI (YoY)

3.0%

Core PCE: 2.8%

Trimmed-Mean PCE

2.7%

Median CPI: 3.4%

Momentum (Annualized)

CPI 3m +3.3%
CPI 6m +3.4%
Core 3m +2.7%
Core 6m +2.7%

Real Policy Stance

+1.4%

10y-5y breakeven spread: -0.07%

Trimmed vs Median Inflation

Cuts through noisy categories using Dallas Fed trimmed-mean and Cleveland median CPI.

Short-Horizon Momentum

Breakeven Term Structure

Real Yield Curve (TIPS)

Real Federal Funds Rate

Methodology

How we classify inflation regimes

All price data is fetched from FRED once the BLS (CPI) and BEA (PCE) release their updates. Breakevens and real yields come from Treasury market instruments, and we align everything to a month-start index before running momentum math.

Key FRED inputs

  • CPI (headline + core) — BLS consumer price index prints used for YoY comparisons.
  • Core PCE — BEA personal consumption expenditures index for short-horizon momentum and real policy calculations.
  • Trimmed-mean & median inflation — Dallas Fed trimmed-mean PCE and Cleveland Fed median CPI to smooth noisy categories.
  • Breakeven inflation — Five- and ten-year inflation expectations inferred from the Treasury market.
  • Real Treasury yields — Five- and ten-year TIPS yields for real-rate curves.
  • Policy rate — Effective federal funds rate to compute the real policy stance.

Regime vocabulary

Cooling
Triggered when the 3-month annualized core PCE pace is at least 0.3 pp below the 12-month pace and/or trimmed-mean < 2.5% and median CPI < 3%.
Sticky
Assigned when short-horizon momentum is roughly equal to the 12-month run-rate and trimmed/median measures remain between their comfort bands.
Re-accelerating
Flagged when the 3-month annualized core PCE pace is ≥ 0.3 pp above the 12-month pace and/or trimmed-mean > 4% or median CPI > 4.5%.

Additional context

  • Momentum chips quote annualized rates computed from log differences (3- and 6-month windows).
  • Real policy stance subtracts YoY core PCE from the latest effective fed funds rate.