Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for SPY
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/14/26 (Tue) | 0 | 752.41 | 1.02 | 0.14% | 753.43 | 751.39 | 1.0% |
| 07/15/26 (Wed) | 1 | 752.41 | 3.46 | 0.46% | 755.87 | 748.95 | 12.29% |
| 07/16/26 (Thu) | 2 | 752.41 | 4.65 | 0.62% | 757.06 | 747.76 | 11.95% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 3 | 752.41 | 5.74 | 0.76% | 758.15 | 746.67 | 12.1% |
| 07/20/26 (Mon) | 6 | 752.41 | 6.89 | 0.92% | 759.3 | 745.52 | 10.38% |
| 07/21/26 (Tue) | 7 | 752.41 | 7.66 | 1.02% | 760.07 | 744.75 | 10.71% |
| 07/22/26 (Wed) | 8 | 752.41 | 8.65 | 1.15% | 761.06 | 743.76 | 11.31% |
| 07/23/26 (Thu) | 9 | 752.41 | 9.46 | 1.26% | 761.87 | 742.95 | 11.67% |
| 07/24/26 (Fri) | 10 | 752.41 | 10.26 | 1.36% | 762.67 | 742.15 | 11.94% |
| 07/27/26 (Mon) | 13 | 752.41 | 11.11 | 1.48% | 763.52 | 741.3 | 11.41% |
| 07/28/26 (Tue) | 14 | 752.41 | 12.3 | 1.64% | 764.71 | 740.11 | 11.91% |
| 07/31/26 (Fri) | 17 | 752.41 | 14.71 | 1.95% | 767.12 | 737.7 | 13.15% |
| 08/07/26 (Fri) | 24 | 752.41 | 17.84 | 2.37% | 770.25 | 734.57 | 13.43% |
| 08/14/26 (Fri) | 31 | 752.41 | 20.58 | 2.74% | 772.99 | 731.83 | 13.61% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 38 | 752.41 | 23.02 | 3.06% | 775.43 | 729.39 | 13.75% |
| 08/28/26 (Fri) | 45 | 752.41 | 25.7 | 3.42% | 778.11 | 726.71 | 14.09% |
| 08/31/26 (Mon) | 48 | 752.41 | 26.22 | 3.49% | 778.63 | 726.19 | 13.96% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 66 | 752.41 | 32.27 | 4.29% | 784.68 | 720.14 | 14.54% |
| 09/30/26 (Wed) | 78 | 752.41 | 34.94 | 4.64% | 787.35 | 717.47 | 14.65% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 94 | 752.41 | 40.16 | 5.34% | 792.57 | 712.25 | 15.27% |
| 10/30/26 (Fri) | 108 | 752.41 | 44.09 | 5.86% | 796.5 | 708.32 | 15.59% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 129 | 752.41 | 49.67 | 6.6% | 802.08 | 702.74 | 16.02% |
| 11/30/26 (Mon) | 139 | 752.41 | 50.91 | 6.77% | 803.32 | 701.5 | 15.85% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 157 | 752.41 | 56.14 | 7.46% | 808.55 | 696.27 | 16.39% |
| 12/31/26 (Thu) | 170 | 752.41 | 58.31 | 7.75% | 810.72 | 694.1 | 16.48% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 185 | 752.41 | 61.98 | 8.24% | 814.39 | 690.43 | 16.75% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 248 | 752.41 | 75.59 | 10.05% | 828.0 | 676.82 | 17.57% |
| 03/31/27 (Wed) | 260 | 752.41 | 77.24 | 10.27% | 829.65 | 675.17 | 17.62% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 338 | 752.41 | 92.76 | 12.33% | 845.17 | 659.65 | 18.48% |
| 06/30/27 (Wed) | 351 | 752.41 | 93.15 | 12.38% | 845.56 | 659.26 | 18.28% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 430 | 752.41 | 108.56 | 14.43% | 860.97 | 643.85 | 19.2% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 521 | 752.41 | 120.73 | 16.05% | 873.14 | 631.68 | 19.4% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 556 | 752.41 | 124.69 | 16.57% | 877.1 | 627.72 | 19.44% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 703 | 752.41 | 143.12 | 19.02% | 895.53 | 609.29 | 19.8% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 885 | 752.41 | 164.46 | 21.86% | 916.87 | 587.95 | 20.27% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.