Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for SPY
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/15/26 (Fri) | 0 | 748.48 | 3.58 | 0.48% | 752.06 | 744.9 | 1.0% |
| 05/18/26 (Mon) | 3 | 748.48 | 5.45 | 0.73% | 753.93 | 743.03 | 10.15% |
| 05/19/26 (Tue) | 4 | 748.48 | 6.51 | 0.87% | 754.99 | 741.97 | 10.86% |
| 05/20/26 (Wed) | 5 | 748.48 | 8.15 | 1.09% | 756.63 | 740.33 | 12.41% |
| 05/21/26 (Thu) | 6 | 748.48 | 9.55 | 1.28% | 758.03 | 738.93 | 13.48% |
| 05/22/26 (Fri) | 7 | 748.48 | 10.65 | 1.42% | 759.13 | 737.83 | 13.95% |
| 05/26/26 (Tue) | 11 | 748.48 | 11.98 | 1.6% | 760.47 | 736.5 | 12.91% |
| 05/27/26 (Wed) | 12 | 748.48 | 12.67 | 1.69% | 761.15 | 735.81 | 13.11% |
| 05/28/26 (Thu) | 13 | 748.48 | 13.44 | 1.8% | 761.92 | 735.04 | 13.4% |
| 05/29/26 (Fri) | 14 | 748.48 | 14.3 | 1.91% | 762.78 | 734.18 | 13.71% |
| 06/05/26 (Fri) | 21 | 748.48 | 18.04 | 2.41% | 766.52 | 730.44 | 14.28% |
| 06/12/26 (Fri) | 28 | 748.48 | 21.23 | 2.84% | 769.71 | 727.25 | 14.6% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 34 | 748.48 | 23.95 | 3.2% | 772.43 | 724.53 | 14.88% |
| 06/26/26 (Fri) | 42 | 748.48 | 26.36 | 3.52% | 774.84 | 722.12 | 14.96% |
| 06/30/26 (Tue) | 46 | 748.48 | 27.35 | 3.65% | 775.83 | 721.13 | 14.89% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 63 | 748.48 | 32.97 | 4.4% | 781.45 | 715.51 | 15.34% |
| 07/31/26 (Fri) | 77 | 748.48 | 37.75 | 5.04% | 786.23 | 710.73 | 15.87% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 98 | 748.48 | 43.32 | 5.79% | 791.8 | 705.16 | 16.14% |
| 08/31/26 (Mon) | 108 | 748.48 | 45.67 | 6.1% | 794.15 | 702.81 | 16.23% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 126 | 748.48 | 50.5 | 6.75% | 798.98 | 697.98 | 16.59% |
| 09/30/26 (Wed) | 138 | 748.48 | 52.76 | 7.05% | 801.24 | 695.72 | 16.68% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 154 | 748.48 | 56.74 | 7.58% | 805.22 | 691.74 | 16.98% |
| 10/30/26 (Fri) | 168 | 748.48 | 60.15 | 8.04% | 808.63 | 688.33 | 17.2% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 189 | 748.48 | 65.46 | 8.75% | 813.94 | 683.02 | 17.61% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 217 | 748.48 | 70.66 | 9.44% | 819.14 | 677.82 | 17.77% |
| 12/31/26 (Thu) | 230 | 748.48 | 72.04 | 9.62% | 820.52 | 676.44 | 17.66% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 245 | 748.48 | 75.69 | 10.11% | 824.17 | 672.79 | 17.98% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 308 | 748.48 | 87.5 | 11.69% | 835.98 | 660.98 | 18.48% |
| 03/31/27 (Wed) | 320 | 748.48 | 88.26 | 11.79% | 836.74 | 660.22 | 18.34% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 398 | 748.48 | 102.24 | 13.66% | 850.72 | 646.24 | 19.0% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 490 | 748.48 | 114.52 | 15.3% | 863.0 | 633.96 | 19.19% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 581 | 748.48 | 127.19 | 16.99% | 875.67 | 621.29 | 19.6% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 616 | 748.48 | 131.47 | 17.56% | 879.95 | 617.01 | 19.74% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 763 | 748.48 | 147.56 | 19.72% | 896.04 | 600.92 | 19.9% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 945 | 748.48 | 167.96 | 22.44% | 916.44 | 580.52 | 20.26% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.