Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for SPY
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/01/26 (Mon) | 0 | 756.48 | 3.68 | 0.49% | 760.16 | 752.8 | 1.0% |
| 06/02/26 (Tue) | 1 | 756.48 | 4.78 | 0.63% | 761.26 | 751.7 | 8.79% |
| 06/03/26 (Wed) | 2 | 756.48 | 5.88 | 0.78% | 762.36 | 750.6 | 9.7% |
| 06/04/26 (Thu) | 3 | 756.48 | 6.69 | 0.88% | 763.17 | 749.79 | 10.06% |
| 06/05/26 (Fri) | 4 | 756.48 | 7.78 | 1.03% | 764.26 | 748.7 | 10.74% |
| 06/08/26 (Mon) | 7 | 756.48 | 8.78 | 1.16% | 765.26 | 747.7 | 10.23% |
| 06/09/26 (Tue) | 8 | 756.48 | 9.44 | 1.25% | 765.92 | 747.04 | 10.49% |
| 06/10/26 (Wed) | 9 | 756.48 | 10.35 | 1.37% | 766.83 | 746.13 | 11.01% |
| 06/11/26 (Thu) | 10 | 756.48 | 11.03 | 1.46% | 767.51 | 745.45 | 11.27% |
| 06/12/26 (Fri) | 11 | 756.48 | 11.76 | 1.55% | 768.24 | 744.72 | 11.5% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 17 | 756.48 | 15.37 | 2.03% | 771.85 | 741.11 | 12.33% |
| 06/26/26 (Fri) | 25 | 756.48 | 18.13 | 2.4% | 774.61 | 738.35 | 12.57% |
| 06/30/26 (Tue) | 29 | 756.48 | 19.29 | 2.55% | 775.77 | 737.19 | 12.58% |
| 07/02/26 (Thu) | 31 | 756.48 | 20.49 | 2.71% | 776.97 | 735.99 | 12.93% |
| 07/10/26 (Fri) | 39 | 756.48 | 23.1 | 3.05% | 779.58 | 733.38 | 13.1% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 46 | 756.48 | 25.63 | 3.39% | 782.11 | 730.85 | 13.42% |
| 07/31/26 (Fri) | 60 | 756.48 | 30.18 | 3.99% | 786.66 | 726.3 | 13.94% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 81 | 756.48 | 37.12 | 4.91% | 793.6 | 719.36 | 14.81% |
| 08/31/26 (Mon) | 91 | 756.48 | 39.08 | 5.17% | 795.56 | 717.4 | 14.78% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 109 | 756.48 | 44.32 | 5.86% | 800.8 | 712.16 | 15.27% |
| 09/30/26 (Wed) | 121 | 756.48 | 46.79 | 6.18% | 803.27 | 709.69 | 15.46% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 137 | 756.48 | 50.93 | 6.73% | 807.41 | 705.55 | 15.83% |
| 10/30/26 (Fri) | 151 | 756.48 | 54.51 | 7.21% | 810.99 | 701.97 | 16.11% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 172 | 756.48 | 59.52 | 7.87% | 816.0 | 696.96 | 16.46% |
| 11/30/26 (Mon) | 182 | 756.48 | 61.13 | 8.08% | 817.61 | 695.35 | 16.43% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 200 | 756.48 | 65.71 | 8.69% | 822.19 | 690.77 | 16.85% |
| 12/31/26 (Thu) | 213 | 756.48 | 67.47 | 8.92% | 823.95 | 689.01 | 16.89% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 228 | 756.48 | 70.66 | 9.34% | 827.14 | 685.82 | 17.11% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 291 | 756.48 | 83.22 | 11.0% | 839.7 | 673.26 | 17.76% |
| 03/31/27 (Wed) | 303 | 756.48 | 84.45 | 11.16% | 840.93 | 672.03 | 17.75% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 381 | 756.48 | 99.1 | 13.1% | 855.58 | 657.38 | 18.52% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 473 | 756.48 | 112.55 | 14.88% | 869.03 | 643.93 | 18.88% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 564 | 756.48 | 125.08 | 16.53% | 881.56 | 631.4 | 19.27% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 599 | 756.48 | 128.52 | 16.99% | 885.0 | 627.96 | 19.25% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 746 | 756.48 | 146.55 | 19.37% | 903.03 | 609.93 | 19.68% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 928 | 756.48 | 166.46 | 22.01% | 922.94 | 590.02 | 19.94% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.