Macroeconomics

Macro Overview

Quick read across labor, inflation, risk, housing, growth, policy, yield curve, and financial conditions.

Labor Loosening
Inflation Cooling
Risk Monitor Yellow
Yield Curve Normal

Labor Market

UNRATE Jan 2026: 4.3%

Prime-age E/P: 80.9%

Loosening
Openings / Unemployed 0.9x
Claims trend (13w) +2.6%
Prime-age E/P YoY +0.5%
Prime-age 3m ann. +1.0%

Inflation & Real

CPI YoY: 2.8%

Core PCE YoY: 3.0%

Cooling
5y Breakeven 2.4%
10y Breakeven 2.2%
5y Real Yield 1.1%
10y Real Yield 1.7%

Risk Monitor

LEI YoY: 56.4%

Recession prob.: 0.8%

Yellow
10y - 3m 0.30%
10y - 2y 0.59%
State breadth —

Housing & Credit

Months' supply: 7.6 months

Tightening
Mortgage 30y 5.98%
HY OAS pct. 19%

Growth Composite

Growth score: 0.23

NAPM: —

Accelerating
INDPRO YoY 2.3%
Retail YoY 2.4%

Policy Stance

FFR: 3.6%

Real FFR: +0.7%

Tight
Taylor proxy 6.1%
Policy gap -2.4%
Real FFR +0.7%

Yield Curve

10y-3m: 0.30%

10y-2y: 0.59%

Normal
10y - 3m 0.30%
10y - 2y 0.59%

Financial Conditions

NFCI: -0.56

Percentile: 17%

Loose
NFCI -0.56
5y percentile 17%

Methodology

How we assemble the macro overview

Every card is sourced from primary FRED series that we normalize to month-start frequencies and render in the same Plotly theme. Badges use transparent, rule-based thresholds so you can quickly tell whether a complex macro stack is improving or deteriorating.

Key FRED inputs

  • Labor inputs — Unemployment rate, job openings, size of the civilian labor force, prime-age employment ratio, and weekly jobless claims.
  • Inflation inputs — Headline and core CPI, core PCE, trimmed-mean PCE, median CPI, breakeven inflation expectations, real 5y/10y yields, and the effective fed funds rate.
  • Risk inputs — 10-year vs 3-month and 10-year vs 2-year Treasury spreads, Conference Board LEI, state coincident breadth, and initial claims momentum.
  • Housing inputs — 30-year mortgage rates, national home price index, wage proxy, high-yield credit spreads, consumer loan delinquencies, months' supply, bank credit, and new home sales.
  • Growth inputs — Nonfarm payrolls, real consumption, capacity utilization, ISM manufacturing, industrial production, retail sales, core durable orders, and real GDP.
  • Policy inputs — Fed funds rate, core PCE, NAIRU vs unemployment gap, real vs potential GDP, financial conditions index, and the Federal Reserve balance sheet.
  • Yield curve inputs — Treasury yields from 1 month through 30 years plus the derived term spreads.
  • Financial conditions inputs — Chicago Fed financial conditions index and its five-year percentile.

Regime vocabulary

Labor (Tight / Loosening / Cooling)
Score ≥ +1 when unemployment is falling, the openings-to-unemployed ratio stays above 1.2, and claims trend lower; score ≤ −1 when the opposite is true.
Inflation (Cooling / Sticky / Re-accelerating)
Short-horizon core PCE is compared with the 12‑month pace as well as trimmed-mean and median gauges.
Risk (Green / Yellow / Red)
A z-scored composite of LEI YoY, the 10Y-3M spread, state breadth, and claims momentum is clipped to a 0‑100 scale.
Housing (Benign / Tightening / Stressed)
A 60-month z-score of HY OAS, mortgage rates, delinquencies, and months' supply dictates the label.
Growth (Accelerating / Flat / Slowing)
Average YoY growth across industrial production, retail sales, core goods orders, and real GDP determines the badge.
Policy (Easy / Neutral / Tight)
Policy gap = Fed funds minus a Taylor proxy plus a check on the real FFR; NFCI percentiles label financial conditions (Loose / Neutral / Tight).
Yield curve (Normal / Flat / Inverted)
The 10Y-3M spread above 20 bps is Normal, between 0 and 20 bps is Flat, and below 0 bps is Inverted.

Additional context

  • Weekly releases (claims, HY OAS, NFCI) update intraday once FRED posts; monthly and quarterly data refresh after the 8:30 a.m. ET prints.
  • Sparklines show the most recent 36 months, and percentile ribbons reference rolling five-to-ten-year windows for historical context.