Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for SPY
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/16/26 (Thu) | 0 | 754.71 | 3.03 | 0.4% | 757.74 | 751.68 | 10.6% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 1 | 754.71 | 4.16 | 0.55% | 758.88 | 750.55 | 10.62% |
| 07/20/26 (Mon) | 4 | 754.71 | 5.19 | 0.69% | 759.9 | 749.52 | 8.51% |
| 07/21/26 (Tue) | 5 | 754.71 | 5.9 | 0.78% | 760.61 | 748.81 | 8.88% |
| 07/22/26 (Wed) | 6 | 754.71 | 6.93 | 0.92% | 761.64 | 747.78 | 9.68% |
| 07/23/26 (Thu) | 7 | 754.71 | 7.76 | 1.03% | 762.47 | 746.95 | 10.13% |
| 07/24/26 (Fri) | 8 | 754.71 | 8.54 | 1.13% | 763.25 | 746.17 | 10.47% |
| 07/27/26 (Mon) | 11 | 754.71 | 9.4 | 1.25% | 764.11 | 745.31 | 10.04% |
| 07/28/26 (Tue) | 12 | 754.71 | 10.03 | 1.33% | 764.74 | 744.68 | 10.29% |
| 07/29/26 (Wed) | 13 | 754.71 | 11.17 | 1.48% | 765.88 | 743.54 | 11.06% |
| 07/31/26 (Fri) | 15 | 754.71 | 13.1 | 1.74% | 767.81 | 741.61 | 12.08% |
| 08/07/26 (Fri) | 22 | 754.71 | 16.27 | 2.16% | 770.98 | 738.44 | 12.51% |
| 08/14/26 (Fri) | 29 | 754.71 | 19.09 | 2.53% | 773.8 | 735.62 | 12.83% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 36 | 754.71 | 21.53 | 2.85% | 776.24 | 733.18 | 13.04% |
| 08/28/26 (Fri) | 43 | 754.71 | 24.25 | 3.21% | 778.96 | 730.46 | 13.45% |
| 08/31/26 (Mon) | 46 | 754.71 | 24.78 | 3.28% | 779.49 | 729.93 | 13.33% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 64 | 754.71 | 30.93 | 4.1% | 785.64 | 723.78 | 14.04% |
| 09/30/26 (Wed) | 76 | 754.71 | 33.66 | 4.46% | 788.37 | 721.05 | 14.19% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 92 | 754.71 | 38.43 | 5.09% | 793.14 | 716.28 | 14.7% |
| 10/30/26 (Fri) | 106 | 754.71 | 42.37 | 5.61% | 797.08 | 712.34 | 15.06% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 127 | 754.71 | 47.94 | 6.35% | 802.65 | 706.77 | 15.53% |
| 11/30/26 (Mon) | 137 | 754.71 | 49.72 | 6.59% | 804.43 | 704.99 | 15.52% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 155 | 754.71 | 54.43 | 7.21% | 809.14 | 700.28 | 15.94% |
| 12/31/26 (Thu) | 168 | 754.71 | 56.61 | 7.5% | 811.32 | 698.1 | 16.05% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 183 | 754.71 | 60.29 | 7.99% | 815.0 | 694.42 | 16.32% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 246 | 754.71 | 73.99 | 9.8% | 828.7 | 680.72 | 17.21% |
| 03/31/27 (Wed) | 258 | 754.71 | 75.65 | 10.02% | 830.36 | 679.06 | 17.29% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 336 | 754.71 | 91.29 | 12.1% | 846.0 | 663.42 | 18.19% |
| 06/30/27 (Wed) | 349 | 754.71 | 92.76 | 12.29% | 847.47 | 661.95 | 18.21% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 428 | 754.71 | 106.24 | 14.08% | 860.95 | 648.47 | 18.78% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 519 | 754.71 | 119.34 | 15.81% | 874.05 | 635.37 | 19.18% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 554 | 754.71 | 122.91 | 16.29% | 877.62 | 631.8 | 19.14% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 701 | 754.71 | 141.96 | 18.81% | 896.67 | 612.75 | 19.65% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 883 | 754.71 | 163.51 | 21.67% | 918.22 | 591.2 | 20.15% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.