Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for SPY
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/31/26 (Mon) | 1 | 769.34 | 3.02 | 0.39% | 772.35 | 766.32 | 6.33% |
| 09/01/26 (Tue) | 2 | 769.34 | 4.14 | 0.54% | 773.48 | 765.19 | 7.55% |
| 09/02/26 (Wed) | 3 | 769.34 | 5.11 | 0.66% | 774.45 | 764.22 | 8.32% |
| 09/03/26 (Thu) | 4 | 769.34 | 5.96 | 0.77% | 775.29 | 763.38 | 8.85% |
| 09/04/26 (Fri) | 5 | 769.34 | 7.03 | 0.91% | 776.36 | 762.31 | 9.54% |
| 09/08/26 (Tue) | 9 | 769.34 | 8.05 | 1.05% | 777.39 | 761.28 | 8.84% |
| 09/09/26 (Wed) | 10 | 769.34 | 8.7 | 1.13% | 778.03 | 760.64 | 9.12% |
| 09/10/26 (Thu) | 11 | 769.34 | 9.38 | 1.22% | 778.71 | 759.96 | 9.45% |
| 09/11/26 (Fri) | 12 | 769.34 | 10.3 | 1.34% | 779.64 | 759.03 | 9.93% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 19 | 769.34 | 14.36 | 1.87% | 783.69 | 754.98 | 10.93% |
| 09/25/26 (Fri) | 26 | 769.34 | 16.68 | 2.17% | 786.02 | 752.65 | 11.34% |
| 09/30/26 (Wed) | 31 | 769.34 | 18.27 | 2.37% | 787.6 | 751.07 | 11.52% |
| 10/02/26 (Fri) | 33 | 769.34 | 19.36 | 2.52% | 788.69 | 749.98 | 11.85% |
| 10/09/26 (Fri) | 40 | 769.34 | 21.81 | 2.84% | 791.15 | 747.52 | 12.15% |
| 10/16/26 (Fri) | 47 | 769.34 | 24.14 | 3.14% | 793.48 | 745.19 | 12.44% |
| 10/30/26 (Fri) | 61 | 769.34 | 28.83 | 3.75% | 798.17 | 740.5 | 13.06% |
| 11/20/26 (Fri) | 82 | 769.34 | 34.96 | 4.54% | 804.3 | 734.37 | 13.7% |
| 11/30/26 (Mon) | 92 | 769.34 | 37.05 | 4.82% | 806.38 | 732.29 | 13.73% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 110 | 769.34 | 42.05 | 5.47% | 811.38 | 727.29 | 14.22% |
| 12/31/26 (Thu) | 123 | 769.34 | 44.28 | 5.76% | 813.61 | 725.06 | 14.31% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 138 | 769.34 | 48.03 | 6.24% | 817.36 | 721.31 | 14.63% |
| 01/29/27 (Fri) | 152 | 769.34 | 51.61 | 6.71% | 820.94 | 717.73 | 14.94% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 201 | 769.34 | 62.51 | 8.13% | 831.85 | 706.82 | 15.7% |
| 03/31/27 (Wed) | 213 | 769.34 | 64.32 | 8.36% | 833.65 | 705.02 | 15.79% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 291 | 769.34 | 81.07 | 10.54% | 850.41 | 688.26 | 16.93% |
| 06/30/27 (Wed) | 304 | 769.34 | 82.98 | 10.79% | 852.31 | 686.36 | 17.03% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 383 | 769.34 | 97.47 | 12.67% | 866.81 | 671.86 | 17.77% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 474 | 769.34 | 111.76 | 14.53% | 881.1 | 657.57 | 18.31% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 509 | 769.34 | 116.23 | 15.11% | 885.57 | 653.1 | 18.41% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 656 | 769.34 | 136.5 | 17.74% | 905.83 | 632.84 | 19.0% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 838 | 769.34 | 159.13 | 20.68% | 928.46 | 610.21 | 19.61% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.