Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for SPY
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/20/26 (Tue) | 4 | 692.08 | 4.79 | 0.69% | 696.87 | 687.29 | 8.62% |
| 01/21/26 (Wed) | 5 | 692.08 | 5.76 | 0.83% | 697.84 | 686.32 | 9.49% |
| 01/22/26 (Thu) | 6 | 692.08 | 6.6 | 0.95% | 698.68 | 685.48 | 10.06% |
| 01/23/26 (Fri) | 7 | 692.08 | 7.5 | 1.08% | 699.58 | 684.58 | 10.63% |
| 01/26/26 (Mon) | 10 | 692.08 | 8.26 | 1.19% | 700.34 | 683.82 | 10.06% |
| 01/27/26 (Tue) | 11 | 692.08 | 9.37 | 1.35% | 701.45 | 682.71 | 10.76% |
| 01/28/26 (Wed) | 12 | 692.08 | 10.56 | 1.53% | 702.64 | 681.52 | 11.66% |
| 01/30/26 (Fri) | 14 | 692.08 | 11.81 | 1.71% | 703.9 | 680.26 | 12.27% |
| 02/06/26 (Fri) | 21 | 692.08 | 14.85 | 2.15% | 706.93 | 677.23 | 12.71% |
| 02/13/26 (Fri) | 28 | 692.08 | 17.32 | 2.5% | 709.4 | 674.76 | 12.9% |
| 02/20/26 (Fri) | 35 | 692.08 | 19.26 | 2.78% | 711.34 | 672.82 | 12.86% |
| 02/27/26 (Fri) | 42 | 692.08 | 21.67 | 3.13% | 713.75 | 670.41 | 13.22% |
| 03/20/26 (Fri) | 63 | 692.08 | 28.52 | 4.12% | 720.6 | 663.56 | 14.14% |
| 03/31/26 (Tue) | 74 | 692.08 | 30.17 | 4.36% | 722.25 | 661.91 | 14.02% |
| 04/17/26 (Fri) | 91 | 692.08 | 35.17 | 5.08% | 727.25 | 656.91 | 14.71% |
| 04/30/26 (Thu) | 104 | 692.08 | 37.85 | 5.47% | 729.93 | 654.23 | 14.83% |
| 05/29/26 (Fri) | 133 | 692.08 | 45.17 | 6.53% | 737.25 | 646.91 | 15.55% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 153 | 692.08 | 49.5 | 7.15% | 741.58 | 642.58 | 15.88% |
| 06/30/26 (Tue) | 165 | 692.08 | 51.14 | 7.39% | 743.22 | 640.94 | 15.93% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 245 | 692.08 | 66.55 | 9.62% | 758.63 | 625.53 | 16.96% |
| 09/30/26 (Wed) | 257 | 692.08 | 67.75 | 9.79% | 759.83 | 624.33 | 16.95% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 336 | 692.08 | 81.02 | 11.71% | 773.1 | 611.06 | 17.7% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 364 | 692.08 | 84.36 | 12.19% | 776.44 | 607.72 | 17.79% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 427 | 692.08 | 93.28 | 13.48% | 785.36 | 598.8 | 18.12% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 700 | 692.08 | 125.15 | 18.08% | 817.23 | 566.93 | 19.1% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 735 | 692.08 | 128.11 | 18.51% | 820.19 | 563.97 | 19.14% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 1064 | 692.08 | 159.49 | 23.04% | 851.57 | 532.59 | 19.67% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.