Options Analytics
Expected Move
Market-implied ±1σ and ±2σ ranges for SPY
| Expiration Date | DTE | Price~ | Expected Move | Expected Move% | Upper Bound | Lower Bound | Implied Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/20/26 (Mon) | 3 | 710.19 | 4.23 | 0.6% | 714.42 | 705.96 | 9.6% |
| 04/21/26 (Tue) | 4 | 710.19 | 5.63 | 0.79% | 715.82 | 704.56 | 11.06% |
| 04/22/26 (Wed) | 5 | 710.19 | 6.73 | 0.95% | 716.92 | 703.46 | 11.84% |
| 04/23/26 (Thu) | 6 | 710.19 | 7.75 | 1.09% | 717.94 | 702.44 | 12.45% |
| 04/24/26 (Fri) | 7 | 710.19 | 8.76 | 1.23% | 718.95 | 701.43 | 12.96% |
| 04/27/26 (Mon) | 10 | 710.19 | 10.05 | 1.41% | 720.24 | 700.14 | 12.5% |
| 04/28/26 (Tue) | 11 | 710.19 | 10.77 | 1.52% | 720.96 | 699.42 | 12.78% |
| 04/29/26 (Wed) | 12 | 710.19 | 12.07 | 1.7% | 722.26 | 698.12 | 13.71% |
| 04/30/26 (Thu) | 13 | 710.19 | 13.17 | 1.85% | 723.36 | 697.02 | 14.38% |
| 05/01/26 (Fri) | 14 | 710.19 | 13.91 | 1.96% | 724.1 | 696.28 | 14.59% |
| 05/08/26 (Fri) | 21 | 710.19 | 16.91 | 2.38% | 727.11 | 693.28 | 14.46% |
| 05/15/26 (Fri) | 28 | 710.19 | 19.57 | 2.76% | 729.76 | 690.62 | 14.47% |
| 05/22/26 (Fri) | 35 | 710.19 | 22.31 | 3.14% | 732.5 | 687.88 | 14.72% |
| 05/29/26 (Fri) | 42 | 710.19 | 24.31 | 3.42% | 734.5 | 685.88 | 14.66% |
| 06/18/26 (Thu) | 62 | 710.19 | 30.74 | 4.33% | 740.93 | 679.45 | 15.18% |
| 06/30/26 (Tue) | 74 | 710.19 | 33.09 | 4.66% | 743.28 | 677.1 | 15.12% |
| 07/17/26 (Fri) | 91 | 710.19 | 37.82 | 5.33% | 748.01 | 672.37 | 15.54% |
| 07/31/26 (Fri) | 105 | 710.19 | 41.63 | 5.86% | 751.82 | 668.56 | 15.88% |
| 08/21/26 (Fri) | 126 | 710.19 | 46.84 | 6.6% | 757.03 | 663.35 | 16.27% |
| 08/31/26 (Mon) | 136 | 710.19 | 48.94 | 6.89% | 759.13 | 661.25 | 16.37% |
| 09/18/26 (Fri) | 154 | 710.19 | 53.23 | 7.5% | 763.42 | 656.96 | 16.7% |
| 09/30/26 (Wed) | 166 | 710.19 | 55.14 | 7.76% | 765.33 | 655.05 | 16.79% |
| 12/18/26 (Fri) | 245 | 710.19 | 71.31 | 10.04% | 781.51 | 638.88 | 17.78% |
| 12/31/26 (Thu) | 258 | 710.19 | 72.48 | 10.21% | 782.67 | 637.71 | 17.7% |
| 01/15/27 (Fri) | 273 | 710.19 | 75.65 | 10.65% | 785.84 | 634.54 | 17.95% |
| 03/19/27 (Fri) | 336 | 710.19 | 86.03 | 12.11% | 796.22 | 624.16 | 18.34% |
| 03/31/27 (Wed) | 348 | 710.19 | 88.33 | 12.44% | 798.52 | 621.86 | 18.6% |
| 06/17/27 (Thu) | 426 | 710.19 | 99.72 | 14.04% | 809.91 | 610.47 | 18.91% |
| 09/17/27 (Fri) | 518 | 710.19 | 111.67 | 15.72% | 821.86 | 598.52 | 19.24% |
| 12/17/27 (Fri) | 609 | 710.19 | 122.53 | 17.25% | 832.72 | 587.66 | 19.51% |
| 01/21/28 (Fri) | 644 | 710.19 | 125.46 | 17.67% | 835.65 | 584.73 | 19.48% |
| 06/16/28 (Fri) | 791 | 710.19 | 141.8 | 19.97% | 851.99 | 568.39 | 19.9% |
| 12/15/28 (Fri) | 973 | 710.19 | 160.36 | 22.58% | 870.55 | 549.83 | 20.2% |
Understanding Expected Move
What is the Expected Move?
The expected move is the price range that options traders believe an asset will stay within by a specific expiration date. It is calculated using the prices of at-the-money options (straddles) and represents a one-standard-deviation (±1σ) probability, which is approximately 68%.
How to interpret the outputs
The chart visualizes the potential price range (the “cone”) for the asset over time, with both one-standard-deviation (±1σ) and two-standard-deviation (±2σ, ~95% probability) boundaries. The table below quantifies this, showing the expected move in both points and as a percentage for each upcoming expiration. This lets you see exactly how much volatility the market is pricing in for different time horizons.
Practical applications
- Set realistic price targets for trades based on market-implied probabilities.
- Determine optimal strike prices for spreads, condors, or straddles.
- Compare your thesis with the market’s implied consensus to judge risk/reward.
- Spot when expectations for volatility are unusually high or low versus history.