Market Memory Forecast

What is Market Memory?

Market Memory helps you discover historical periods that behaved similarly to what the asset has been doing recently, then displays how prices tended to evolve afterward. Use it to set context, frame scenarios, and stress-test plans.

Quick start

  • Pick a ticker and a lookback length that matches your timeframe.
  • Choose a similarity style that feels right for your use case.
  • Review the “Best Match” and the subsequent “Forecast” path as a scenario.

Why it’s useful

  • Provides historical context for the current tape.
  • Helps set expectations for ranges and drift.
  • Supports plan-making (entries, risk, take-profits) with real examples.

Good practice

  • Treat the forecast as a scenario, not a prediction.
  • Favor matches from comparable environments (volatility/liquidity).
  • Combine with risk controls (position sizing, stops, time-based exits).

Lookback

The recent price behavior we’re comparing to the past.

Best Match

The most similar historical period found, aligned to today for comparison.

Forecast

How prices tended to evolve after the best match. Use as a scenario to plan risk and targets.

Understanding Market Memory

What is Market Memory?

Market Memory is a quantitative tool that searches through decades of historical price data to find periods that behaved most similarly to the recent past (the "lookback kernel"). It then shows you what happened immediately following that historical period, providing a data-driven, historical analog for the current market setup.

How to Interpret the Charts

  • Lookback: This chart shows the cumulative return of the asset over the recent period you've selected (e.g., the last 30 days). This is the pattern the algorithm is trying to match.
  • Best Match: This shows the historical period that had the most similar price action to your lookback window. The dates of this historical analog are shown on the chart.
  • Forecast: This chart shows what happened in the days *following* the "Best Match" period. It represents a historical scenario of how the current price action could potentially resolve if history were to repeat itself.

Practical Applications

  • Scenario Planning: Use the forecast as a plausible scenario for the future to help set price targets or identify potential risks. It is a map of what has happened before, not a prediction of what will happen.
  • Contextual Awareness: Understand if the current market behavior is truly unprecedented or if it has historical parallels.
  • Idea Generation: Discover historical patterns that may provide an edge in developing a trading plan.